Cumin Market Review: Persistent Weakness Amid Muted Export Demand and Consistent Arrivals

The global cumin market remains under significant pressure as 2025 unfolds, with prices trending lower amid persistent weak demand and steady arrivals in major wholesale markets. Despite earlier hopes for a post-Eid demand revival, exporter participation—particularly from the Gulf and Bangladesh—has not materialized in a meaningful way. This is evident across India’s major cumin hubs, such as Unjha, as well as regional markets like Rajkot and Gondal, where arrivals have been consistent but lackluster buying support and shrinking local demand keep market sentiment bearish. Quality grades command only moderate premiums, failing to drive a price recovery and fueling uncertainty among traders, bulk buyers, and processors.

Global export data paints a somber picture for Indian cumin, with total exports in Q1 2024–25 falling by over 25% year-on-year. The competitive landscape is intensifying, as alternative origins like Syria, Iran, and Egypt maintain steady production and stable pricing. Unless a significant uptick in overseas buying surfaces, particularly from traditional key markets, prices are anticipated to remain soft or drift lower. This challenging backdrop forces market participants to adopt a cautious near-term stance while eyeing weather developments, crop progress, and export demand signals for the next catalysts.

📈 Latest Cumin Market Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Last Update	Sentiment
Cumin powder	Syria	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	4.92	2025-07-24	Stable
Cumin seed	Syria	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	4.15	2025-07-24	Stable
Cumin seeds (green, premium)	Iran	Tehran, IR	FOB	5.73	2025-07-23	Firm
Cumin seeds (black, premium)	Iran	Tehran, IR	FOB	9.87	2025-07-23	Firm
Cumin seeds (grade – A, 98%)	India	New Delhi, IN	FOB	2.30	2025-07-19	Weak
Cumin seeds (whole, grade – A, organic)	India	New Delhi, IN	FOB	5.30	2025-07-19	Stable
Cumin seeds (grade – A, 99%)	India	New Delhi, IN	FOB	2.45	2025-07-19	Weak
Cumin powder (grade – A, organic)	India	New Delhi, IN	FOB	4.42	2025-07-19	Stable
Cumin seeds (99%)	India	New Delhi, IN	FOB	2.46	2025-07-19	Weak
Cumin seeds (98%)	India	Unjha, Gujarat, IN	FOB	2.45	2025-07-19	Weak
Cumin seeds (black, grade – A)	Egypt	Kairo, EG	FOB	2.21	2025-07-18	Stable
Cumin seeds (99.9%)	Egypt	Kairo, EG	FOB	4.90	2025-07-18	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Indian cumin arrivals remain steady in Unjha, Rajkot, and Gondal, with quality premiums narrowing as buyers show little urgency despite lower prices.
• Cumin prices have corrected sharply by $2.39–$2.70 per 20 kg in recent sessions, with current trading ranges at $46.62–$46.90 per 20 kg for top-quality grades in India.
• Bulk buyers and retailers, both domestic and offshore, are largely sidelined, awaiting clearer signals of demand pickup.
• Q1 FY 2024–25 exports slumped to 61,787 tonnes (from 82,981 tonnes y/y). Total FY 2023–24 Indian exports: 165,266 tonnes ($198M), down from 229,861 tonnes ($276M) in FY 2022–23.
• Exporters from the Gulf and Bangladesh are yet to resume significant procurement, exerting further downward pressure.
• Rival producers (Syria, Iran, Egypt) offer competitive pricing and stable supply, adding to the pressure on Indian cumin.

📊 Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Muted export demand post-Eid, with key buyers absent from the market.
• Steady arrivals keep inventories flush, reducing traders’ willingness to chase higher prices.
• Global demand is lackluster amid economic uncertainty and volatile FX, affecting buying power in major importing regions.
• India’s export share declines, with increasing competition from Middle Eastern and North African origins.
• Speculative activity is low given the lack of upside catalysts.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India (Gujarat & Rajasthan): Southwest monsoon remains active with widespread moderate rainfall. Soil moisture is adequate, supporting late crop development but raising disease risk if excess rain persists.
• Iran & Syria: Conditions generally favorable, though localized dryness observed in some valleys may marginally impact yields. No major adverse events reported.
• Egypt: Summer temperatures normal, irrigation remains steady, no weather-related disruptions reported.
• Weather sensitivity: Prolonged heavy rains in India could degrade stored seeds/quality and aggravate disease, potentially tightening supply in the coming months.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023–24 Exports (tonnes)	2022–23 Exports (tonnes)	Estimated 2024 Stocks (tonnes)
India	165,266	229,861	Moderate (above 5-year avg.)
Syria	n/a	n/a	Stable
Iran	n/a	n/a	Normal
Egypt	n/a	n/a	Ample

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Spot pricing bias remains to the downside unless there is a visible uptick in export demand, especially from the Gulf and Bangladesh.
• Bulk importers should monitor weather in Indian growing regions, as disease outbreaks from excess rain could tighten supplies later in the season.
• Short-term: Wait-and-watch approach favored. Price dips may offer opportunities for lower-cost inventory building if demand recovers late Q3–Q4.
• Exporters: Seek to diversify destination markets and enhance quality to maintain competitiveness against cheaper alternatives from MENA countries.
• Retail & SME buyers: Consider opportunistic purchases at current low prices for medium-term coverage.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Origins / Major Hubs)

Market/Origin	Current Price (USD/20 kg)	Forecast (USD/20 kg)	Bias
Unjha, India (Grade A)	45.44 – 47.18	45.00 – 47.00	Soft/Weak
Tehran, Iran (Premium Green)	Approx. 5.73/kg EUR (FOB)	Stable	Neutral
Dordrecht, NL (Syrian)	4.15–4.92/kg EUR	Stable	Neutral

• Overall, the cumin market appears rangebound to weak, with further downside risk unless export demand recovers or weather disrupts supply in India.