Beans Market Analysis: China’s Supply Contraction, Export Pause, and Price Resilience

The global beans market is at a critical juncture in mid-2025, particularly for Chinese-origin white beans. With Chinese acreage shrinking annually and exporters taking a wait-and-see approach amid significant uncertainties over new season yields, both international and domestic markets are showing signs of constrained supply and subdued trade. Key varieties such as Japanese White, Navy Beans, and Large White Beans remain in focus as exporters have largely paused quoting, reflecting broad market apprehension over the forthcoming harvest. The stabilisation in prices, despite potential downward risks from demand weakness—most evident in sluggish transactions for small-sized stock—suggests current price levels are being buoyed by thin volumes in the domestic Chinese market. Export quotations for Japanese White are holding at $1,310–$1,340 per ton FOB Tianjin port, underlining continuing support at the upper band. Chinese traders and exporters are hopeful that fresh crop arrivals will reset price competitiveness, especially for export channels. With severe weather potentially affecting crop prospects and traders expecting any major movement only after visible production outcomes, the market finds itself in a holding pattern, awaiting clarity on both supply and demand shocks as the new season progresses.

📈 Market Prices Snapshot

Bean Type	Origin	Organic	FOB Price (EUR/t)	Prev. Price	Weekly Chg.	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Mung beans 99.5%	CN	Yes	1.55	1.53	▲0.02	23 Jul 2025	Stable/Firm
Mung beans 3.8mm	CN	No	1.45	1.43	▲0.02	23 Jul 2025	Stable
Kidney beans, small black	CN	Yes	1.39	1.41	▼0.02	23 Jul 2025	Soft/Illiquid
Kidney beans, large white	CN	No	3.15	3.19	▼0.04	23 Jul 2025	Firm/No export quotes
Kidney beans, organic large white	CN	Yes	3.28	3.31	▼0.03	23 Jul 2025	Stable/Firm
Adzuki beans, organic	CN	Yes	1.55	1.52	▲0.03	23 Jul 2025	Steady
Kidney beans, dark red	BR	No	1.44	1.42	▲0.02	19 Jul 2025	Stable
Fava Beans, small	GB	No	1.18	1.16	▲0.02	19 Jul 2025	Stable
Kidney beans, white	GB	No	1.37	1.35	▲0.02	19 Jul 2025	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• China’s white bean acreage keeps shrinking, posing a long-term supply constraint.
• The 2025 new crop output is unpredictable amid mixed weather signals and ongoing growth concerns in key regions.
• Exporters in China have halted new price quotes, reflecting market indecision and supply risk.
• Small traders with a limited stock of smaller-calibre beans report weak buy-side interest at elevated prices.
• The domestic Chinese market is supported by low liquidity and thin spot supplies, while exporters anticipate more competitive new crop pricing.
• Global buying remains cautious pending clarity on availability and price trends for the 2025/26 crop.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• USDA & Reports: Recent USDA data signals marginal global inventory improvement for minor pulses, but continued tightness for white and speciality beans.
• China: – Planting area for white beans is down again, a major exporter of Japanese White and Navy Beans.
  – Export FOB Tianjin for Japanese White: $1,310–$1,340/t (no fresh quotes this week).
• Brazil: – Gradually strengthening output, mainly for red/brown beans; export volumes stable.
• Europe: – Local beans pricing steady; import demand steady, but spot purchases cautious.
• Speculative Positioning: Little short-term speculative activity given volatile fundamentals and limited liquidity in export flows.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Condition

• China (North & Northeast): Near-term weather forecasts show a mix of warmer-than-normal temperatures with sporadic rainfall, increasing risks for flowering and pod filling stages. Further dry spells may curtail yield potential for susceptible bean varieties.
• Brazil: Generally favourable, albeit some dryness in central producing states. Planting complete; weather risk limited for late crops.
• Europe: Central and Western regions remain stable, with only minor heat concerns. No serious threats reported.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (est., 1,000 MT)	Stocks (1,000 MT)	Comment
China	915	~90	Area continues shrinking, key exporter
Brazil	1,450	140	Expanding brown/red production
EU	680	62	Stable, self-sufficient in broad beans
India	5,900	370	Major consumer, self-sufficient, little trade impact

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Exporters: Hold off on new contracts until clearer guidance on China’s new crop outcome; watch for possible late-July/early August export reactivation.
• Importers: Secure minimum requirements at current price bands, but avoid large forward purchases until China’s production clarity improves.
• Domestic Chinese traders: Resist aggressive selling—thin market volume currently supports steady prices despite weak offtake.
• Watch closely for updated weather alerts in North/Northeast China and harvest progress updates in August.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price (EUR/t)	Forecast
FOB Beijing	Mung beans (organic)	1.55	Stable – minor upside
FOB Beijing	Kidney beans, large white	3.15	Hold, no major change
FOB Brasilia	Kidney beans, dark red	1.44	Sideways to slightly strong
FOB London	Fava beans	1.18	Steady