Corn Market Outlook: Tight Fundamentals and Weather Risks Drive Subtle Price Rebound

This week, the global corn market is showing resilience amid an environment of tight fundamental balances and persistent uncertainty about upcoming harvests. After a period of pronounced weakness, major exchanges are reflecting a modest but widespread price recovery, fuelled largely by concerns over hot, dry weather in parts of the US Midwest and the Black Sea region. Meanwhile, demand projections remain steady, especially as emerging market importers seek to rebuild depleted stocks. On the trading side, speculative positions have stabilized, preventing further sharp downward corrections. Elsewhere, fundamental data—such as global production forecasts, stocks-to-use ratios, and export figures—underscore the fragility of supply chains following volatile weather and shifting acreage intentions. While underlying sentiment in both the CBOT and Euronext markets has firmed, there is a clear sense of caution as crop conditions and export pace are reassessed over the coming weeks.

Market participants are closely watching the latest USDA supply and demand estimates, as well as crop progress reports from the world’s key producing regions. With China’s DCE futures reflecting a similarly measured tone, the corn complex appears well supported in the near term, but significant weather-driven risks could sway direction swiftly. Fundamental buyers are advised to engage opportunistically, while sellers may find relief after months of relentless declines. Please refer to the product offers below for our latest procurement opportunities.

📈 Corn Futures Prices at Major Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Sentiment
CBOT	Sep 25	402.25	+0.50 (+0.12%)	US-Cent/bu	Neutral/Firming
CBOT	Dec 25	421.75	+1.00 (+0.24%)	US-Cent/bu	Firm
DCE	Sep 25	2,318.00	+7.00 (+0.30%)	CNY/t	Neutral
Euronext	Nov 25	197.25	0.00 (0.00%)	EUR/t	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• USDA Report: The latest WASDE indicates a slight downward revision to US corn yield expectations due to adverse Midwest weather, keeping ending stocks tighter than anticipated.
• Global Inventories: Major exporters (US, Brazil, Ukraine) remain cautious as world stock-to-use ratios trend toward multi-year lows, especially in the wake of recent production challenges across South America.
• Speculative Positioning: Large funds have trimmed net short exposure, suggesting risk of further short covering if crop concerns escalate.
• Import Demand: Robust buying interest from Mexico, North Africa, and China supports export flows, though credit concerns weigh in some emerging markets.

📊 Fundamental & Comparative Data

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Importers
USA	Initial est: 384	36	—
Brazil	117	9	—
Ukraine	29	1	EU, China
China	288	207	—
EU	64	7	Net importer (UA, BR, US)

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Corn Regions

• US Midwest: Above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall expected for the next 7 days. Soil moisture deficits may impact pollination and kernel development, threatening yield if dry pattern persists.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Some dryness reported but scattered showers are forecast, supporting late-season crop filling.
• Brazil: Safrinha crop nearly harvested, weather risk shifting to 2025 planting season; moisture levels will be watched closely.

🔗 Global & Regional Offers (Latest Prices)

Name	Type	Origin	Location	Price (EUR/t)	Updated	Link
Popcorn		Brazil	Netherlands	0.75	2025-07-24	View
Corn	yellow feed grade, 14.5% max	Ukraine	Odesa	0.25	2025-07-18	View
Popcorn	expansion, 40/42	Argentina	Buenos Aires	0.81	2025-07-18	View
Corn	yellow	France	Paris	0.25	2025-07-18	View
Corn	starch	India	New Delhi	1.93	2025-07-18	View
Corn		Ukraine	Odesa	0.20	2025-07-18	View

📆 Three-Day Market Forecast

• CBOT: Supported near 400 US-Cent/bu for Sep 25, with upside to 405 if Midwest weather deteriorates. Downside risk limited to 395 on improved rainfall forecasts.
• Euronext: Nov 25 expected to stay in tight range 196–199 EUR/t; volatility may rise if weather headlines change.
• DCE: Sep 25 seen stable to slightly firmer, targeting 2330–2340 CNY/t with support at 2300.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish: Opportunistic buyers should consider building basis positions if local weather stays adverse; spreads have narrowed, reflecting caution.
• Neutral: Wait for USDA production updates before making significant moves; volatility could persist until pollination period passes in US Midwest.
• Bearish: Aggressive sellers may face limited downside in current environment; hedge sales using out-of-the-money puts if rainfall improves in key regions.