Sesame Market Squeezed by Weak Export Demand and Shifting Sowing Patterns

The global sesame market finds itself at a turning point, as persistent weak export demand and changing grower behavior in key Indian regions exert downward pressure on prices. While India’s overall kharif sesame acreage has increased—particularly in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Maharashtra—Gujarat, the country’s usual powerhouse, has reported an 18% year-on-year reduction in planted area. This shift underscores farmers’ mounting concerns over market instability, uncompetitive pricing, and escalating input costs, prompting a switch toward alternative crops.

The international backdrop further complicates the landscape: South Korea, a prominent importer, has yet to announce large-scale tenders, leaving a void in export demand. Market sources confirm that unless there’s a dramatic turnaround in overseas buying, especially from East Asia, prices are unlikely to see meaningful recovery. White sesame continues to trade between $3,000 and $3,400 per tonne, while black sesame prices face additional pressure from limited export opportunities. For now, both growers and traders remain firmly in wait-and-watch mode, tracking both the weather outlook and developments in global procurement. Immediate relief appears unlikely, but weather developments and institutional buying could spark a dynamic change in coming weeks.

📈 Sesame Prices at a Glance

Type	Purity	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Prev. Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Hulled 99.90%	99.90%	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.95	1.96	-0.01	Bearish
Hulled EU-Grade 99.98%	99.98%	IN	New Delhi	FOB	2.06	2.07	-0.01	Neutral/Bearish
Hulled EU-Grade 99.97%	99.97%	IN	New Delhi	FOB	2.03	2.04	-0.01	Bearish
Super Z Black 99.95%	99.95%	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.52	1.53	-0.01	Bearish
Natural Sortex Organic 99.95%	99.95%	IN	New Delhi	FOB	2.25	2.26	-0.01	Stable
Natural, Golden 99.5%	99.5%	EG	Kairo	FOB	2.37	2.35	+0.02	Firm
Hulled 99,95%	99.95%	TD	Berlin	FCA	1.73	1.73	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Fundamentals

• India’s sesame area stable to higher except in Gujarat, where sowing fell by 18% YoY due to poor sentiment and shifting crops
• States like UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Maharashtra ramp up acreage on expected demand
• Input costs and market risk prompt grower exit from sesame in Gujarat
• White sesame trades at $3,000–$3,400/t; black sesame faces steeper declines

Country	Est. 2025 Production (kt)	Stocks (kt)	Comment
India	890	~110	Mixed acreage, stable output forecast, Gujarat drag remains
Nigeria	480	60	Normal crop, exports active
Ethiopia	260	35	Steady output, demand steady
Sudan	175	28	Crop normal, exports improving
Korea (importer)	n/a	n/a	Tender volumes awaited
China (importer)	n/a	n/a	Continued steady demand

📊 Key Market Drivers

• Weak export demand from Korea; tenders not yet released keeps trade subdued
• Indian & African harvest progress is critical for end-season supply assessment
• High input costs and lack of forward contracts limit grower participation in Gujarat
• Bounce in demand from East Asia (especially Korea or China) is main potential bullish trigger

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India’s monsoon outlook is generally favorable across main sesame areas except for rainfall deficits in western Gujarat, which could further limit output there
• Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Odisha expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall—positive for yields
• African origins (Nigeria, Sudan) report seasonally normal weather

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Exporters: Hold off large-scale commitments until clear signals emerge from Korean tenders or Chinese replenishment
• Importers: Monitor Indian and African crop progress, seek price dips for short-term procurement
• Producers: Diversification remains prudent in Gujarat; in other states, maintain acreage as weather outlook is positive
• Speculators: Limited upward price potential until major buying returns—stay risk averse

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Variety	Forecast Price (EUR/t)	Trend
New Delhi (IN)	Hulled 99.90%	1.94-1.96	Soft/Bearish
New Delhi (IN)	Hulled, EU-Grade 99.98%	2.04-2.06	Soft
New Delhi (IN)	Natural, Sortex Organic	2.24-2.26	Stable
Kairo (EG)	Natural, Golden	2.35-2.38	Firm
Berlin (DE)	Hulled 99,95%	1.73	Stable