The global nuts market is experiencing dramatic shifts in trade flows, strong regional price disparities, and a complex landscape for importers and exporters—particularly in India, one of the world’s most significant consumers and processors. In 2024–25, India’s arecanut imports from Bangladesh soared to $53.06 million, a more than fourfold jump from the previous year, and now account for 37% of India’s total arecanut imports, up from just 9%. This sharp increase signals both changing trade alliances and market volatility. A similar pattern was seen in Myanmar, whose exports to India more than doubled, while traditional suppliers such as Sri Lanka and Indonesia faced steep declines in their export values.
Despite these individual shifts, India’s overall arecanut import value slipped slightly to $143.45 million from $147.99 million, reflecting both increased competition among suppliers and possible consumption constraints. Meanwhile, specialty nuts such as Brazil nuts have traded with notable price stability in European markets like the Netherlands. As climate and weather disruptions threaten harvests in key producing regions, and geopolitical tensions shape trade corridors, nuts market participants must navigate supply fluctuations, shifting demand centers, and evolving tariff structures. Competitive positioning in the months ahead will require a keen awareness of both macroeconomic signals and localized supply-demand drivers.
📈 Prices
| Product |
Origin |
Location |
Exchange |
Current Price (EUR/kg) |
Weekly Change |
Market Sentiment |
| Brazil Nuts (medium) |
NL |
Dordrecht, NL |
FCA |
6.58 |
0.00 |
Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India’s Arecanut Market: Bangladesh’s share in Indian arecanut imports spiked to 37%, from only 9% previously; Myanmar’s share is also up sharply. Sri Lanka and Indonesia have lost market share, with Sri Lanka’s exports nearly halved and Indonesia’s dropping by two-thirds. The declining overall arecanut import value (from €258.19 million in 2022–23 to €143.45 million in 2024–25) indicates a recent demand plateau or tighter controls.
- European Specialty Nut Trade: Brazil nuts continue to show price stability in the Dutch wholesale segment; continued consumer demand for specialty and healthier snack products stabilizes the segment.
- Substitution & Local Hedging: Trade flows point to Indian buyers diversifying suppliers and hedging against regional disruption.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production, Trade, Inventories:
- India: Marginal drop in total annual arecanut import values, but strong shifts in supplier composition.
- Bangladesh & Myanmar: Surge in export volumes to India.
- Sri Lanka, Indonesia: Declining export receipts point to possible supply issues, or tariff/trade restrictions.
- Brazil Nuts: Stable Dutch prices and steady European demand; no major supply shocks reported.
- Speculative Positioning: No evidence of major speculative activity; trade is dominated by conventional food importers and processors.
- Latest Market Drivers:
- India’s import policy, tariffs, and bilateral trade deals.
- Weather (detailed below) & logistics disruptions.
- Consumer health trends favoring nuts over other snack types in developed economies.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India & Bangladesh: Monsoon rainfall has been near to slightly above average in many producing zones; risk of localized flooding could disrupt some post-harvest logistics.
- Myanmar: Myanmar’s weather was favorable through harvest, supporting increased exportable supply.
- Brazil & South America (Brazil Nuts): Typical dry season conditions in major Brazil nut-producing states. No drought or flood events reported currently, which supports price stability for several months.
- Forecast Implications: Potential for moderate logistical delays in South Asia, but not enough to threaten overall supply. Stable outlook for Brazil nut harvests through next quarter.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country |
Arecanut Export to India (2024–25, USD million) |
Change vs. 2023–24 |
| Bangladesh |
53.06 |
+299.3% |
| Myanmar |
33.20 |
+112.8% |
| Sri Lanka |
35.97 |
-48.5% |
| Indonesia |
15.36 |
-64.4% |
📉 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Importers: Consider diversified procurement strategies as supplier landscape in arecanuts is highly volatile.
- Exporters: Opportunity for Bangladesh and Myanmar to increase market share with competitive prices and prompt logistics; Sri Lanka and Indonesia may need to adjust pricing and marketing strategies.
- Traders/Processers: Continue to monitor Indian tariff and non-tariff import measures, as policy can change quickly in the face of changing import volumes.
- European Buyers (Brazil Nuts): Pricing stability allows for forward contracting without major risk; monitor for weather anomalies in Brazil next quarter.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Product |
Region/Exchange |
Current (EUR/kg) |
3-Day Forecast Range (EUR/kg) |
Sentiment |
| Brazil Nuts |
Dordrecht (NL) |
6.58 |
6.55–6.60 |
Stable |
