Lentils Market Faces Pressure Amid Rising Imports and Shifting Acreage

The global lentils market is entering a dynamic phase shaped by India’s reduced pigeonpea (tur) acreage, abundant international supply, and subdued price levels. As India, the world’s largest consumer and one of the key importers, pares back its kharif-season sowing by nearly 8%, market watchers are concerned about the knock-on effects on international pricing, farmer economics, and global trade flows. The acreage slowdown spans major producing states—Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh—driven by a shift to higher-margin crops like maize, cotton, and oilseeds, and exacerbated by lackluster local prices. Compounding these local trends, India’s sustained duty-free import window until at least March 2026 has fostered record lentil imports: 1.22 million tonnes in 2024–25, a dramatic jump from the previous year’s 771,000 tonnes.

These trade realities have cut prices by around 40% year-on-year, sharply undercutting government support price levels. Global suppliers like Canada and China, key export origins, are thus experiencing both pricing pressure and demand unpredictability. Meanwhile, weather across major lentil producers remains adequate, but concerns loom around how persistent international price softness and shifting Indian demand may affect future production incentives, stock management, and global supply chains. Against this backdrop, navigating the lentils market demands a keen eye on government policies, weather outlooks, and shifting trade corridors.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Organic	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Last Update	Sentiment
Lentils dried	Small Green	CN	Beijing	Yes	1.28	1.30	2025-07-30	Bearish
Lentils dried	Small Green	CN	Beijing	No	1.20	1.22	2025-07-30	Bearish
Lentils dried	Red Football	CA	Ottawa	No	2.46	2.47	2025-07-25	Neutral
Lentils dried	Laird Green	CA	Ottawa	No	1.64	1.65	2025-07-25	Bearish
Lentils dried	Eston Green	CA	Ottawa	No	1.51	1.52	2025-07-25	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India Pigeonpea Acreage: Down by 8% from 3.80 to 3.49 million ha (vs. normal: 4.47 mln ha). Major drops in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh; Telangana only major gainer.
• Import Dynamics: India’s record 2024–25 tur import: 1.22 mln tonnes; up from 0.77 mln previously.
• Market Prices: Indian farmgate prices plunged to $63.70–$80.59/q, 40% lower y/y and well below MSP ($96.26/q).
• Global Stocks: Canada and Australia report ample inventories; China remains competitive supplier for green lentils.

📊 Fundamentals

• Speculative Positioning: Funds remain largely on the sidelines due to weak spot prices and high Indian stocks. Activity subdued on major exchanges, reflecting lack of bullish triggers.
• USDA/Global Reports: USDA latest pulse report indicates stable North American output amid mostly favorable crop conditions. Canadian 2025 exportable surplus expected robust, with continuing demand from India and the Middle East, but at defensive prices.
• Import Tariffs: Indian government’s extension of 0% tariff until March 2026 increases import competition and suppresses domestic prices.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Monsoon progression steady but some deficit in central and southern regions (notably in Maharashtra and Karnataka); may impact late-planted areas if dry spell persists through August.
• Canada: Prairie weather mixed—recent moderate rainfall offsets earlier dryness, supporting lentil pod-filling but yields may be marginally below last year in south Saskatchewan.
• Australia: Seasonal forecasts mostly neutral to positive, with cool/wet spells in Victoria and South Australia promoting above-average expectations for winter pulses.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Area (mln ha)	2023 Area (mln ha)	2024 Est. Production (mln tonnes)	Stocks (mln tonnes)
India (pigeonpea)	3.49	3.80	3.4*	1.2**
Canada	0.65	0.63	2.0	0.40
Australia	0.22	0.21	0.32	0.04
China	0.19	0.19	0.23	0.05
Turkey	0.09	0.09	0.10	0.02

*Estimate, may vary with weather; **India opening stock, 2024-25.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Short-Term Bearish: Oversupply, record Indian imports, and competitive global offers keep prices under pressure.
• 🛒 Buyers: Secure forward contracts at current values where inventory requirements exist—potential for price floor setting inbound, but global sellers remain aggressive.
• 🚚 Sellers: Prioritize contracted delivery and cautious spot sales in anticipation of post-monsoon rally attempt if India’s crop prospects falter.
• ⚠️ Risk Factors: Watch for late-monsoon weather risks in India, currency volatility in Canada/Australia, and any abrupt trade policy changes by India.
• 🔍 Monitor: USDA and India Agriculture Ministry updates for acreage, yield, and import policy news.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast (3-Day)	Sentiment
China FOB (Small Green, Organic)	1.28	1.27–1.28	Stable/Down
China FOB (Small Green)	1.20	1.19–1.20	Stable/Down
Canada FOB (Red Football)	2.46	2.45–2.47	Stable