Lentils Market Faces Pressure: Domestic Prices Dive Amid Import Surge

The global lentils market is navigating through a period of pronounced volatility, driven primarily by a surge in cheap imports—especially into key markets like India. This dynamic has sparked widespread unrest among Indian growers, whose incomes have been hit hard as domestic prices sink to unsustainable levels during the peak harvest.

The market is currently grappling with a classic supply-demand imbalance: while output remains strong, the saturation of low-cost imports from countries such as Australia, Russia, and Canada has overwhelmed local channels, igniting panic selling and farmer protests. Notably, India’s imports soared to over 1.56 million tonnes in just nine months (April–December 2024), pulling local lentil prices well below the cost of production and triggering calls for decisive government action. The current market reality reflects more than just an economic equation; it underscores the delicate interplay of food security, farm livelihoods, and trade policies in the global pulses trade.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery	Price (€/kg)	Prev. Price (€/kg)	Update	Sentiment
China	Small, Green	99.5%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	1.28	1.30	2025-07-30	Bearish
China	Small, Green	99.5%	No	Beijing	FOB	1.20	1.22	2025-07-30	Bearish
Canada	Red Football	—	No	Ottawa	FOB	2.46	2.47	2025-07-25	Stable
Canada	Laird, Green	—	No	Ottawa	FOB	1.64	1.65	2025-07-25	Bearish
Canada	Eston Green	—	No	Ottawa	FOB	1.51	1.52	2025-07-25	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: The world’s largest importer, imported over 1.56 million tonnes of lentils in April–December 2024—a sharp year-on-year increase. Cheap imports particularly from Australia and Russia are undercutting domestic prices, putting future acreage at risk.
• Australia, Canada, Russia: These exporters are capitalizing on India’s open import policies, currently supplying at $650–$670/tonne, well below Indian farmgate prices ($750–$800/tonne previously).
• Demand Growth: While global lentil consumption continues to rise, oversupply in India is triggering a supply glut, driving market prices downward, increasing inventories, and affecting farmer planting intentions for the upcoming cycle.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA and Local Data: Production forecasts remain robust in key exporters. Canada’s output, in particular, looks stable but is facing pricing pressure due to the global oversupply and competition from cheaper origins.
• Inventories: Increasing stocks in importing countries, especially India, exert downward pressure, with traders and farmers both adopting wait-and-see strategies for further government action.
• Speculation: Bearish sentiment dominates, with speculative funds staying on the sidelines until signs of policy change or major weather events disrupt the status quo.
• Policy Factors: Calls for restrictive Indian import policies and intervention are growing louder, with mounting political risk for the status quo.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Monsoon season remains broadly normal, but sporadic dry spells in northern growing regions could offset some of the recent bearishness by threatening late-season yields.
• Australia: Key lentil regions are forecast to experience average to above-average rainfall, supporting strong yields for 2025 harvest. No significant weather threats reported this week.
• Canada: Saskatchewan and Alberta lentil zones are recovering from a brief drought, but improved precipitation in recent weeks has stabilized yield prospects. Watch for unexpected storms nearing harvest.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Prod. (th. t)	2024/25 Stocks (th. t)	Export Share
India	1,350	650	15%
Canada	2,100	400	38%
Australia	1,000	250	22%
Russia	430	90	10%
Turkey	350	75	6%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Bearish bias as import-driven price pressure persists and oversupply issues remain unresolved in India and elsewhere.
• Watch for policy headlines from India. Any restriction on imports could spark a rapid reversal in sentiment and prices.
• Producers: Consider locking in forward sales, particularly for high-quality and organic segments, to hedge against further downside.
• Buyers: Opportunistic buying recommended as prices approach multi-year lows, especially from Chinese and Canadian origins.
• Speculators: Caution warranted—sentiment remains negative until a visible policy or fundamental catalyst emerges.
• Monitor weather in key regions; late adverse weather or logistical disruptions could present upside risks.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Type	Forecast Price (€/kg)	Change
Beijing, CN	Small, Green (Organic)	1.27	-0.01
Beijing, CN	Small, Green	1.18	-0.02
Ottawa, CA	Red Football	2.45	-0.01
Ottawa, CA	Laird, Green	1.63	-0.01
Ottawa, CA	Eston Green	1.50	-0.01