Monsoon Revival Spurs Soybean Acreage Growth and Market Optimism in India

The Indian soybean market stands at a pivotal juncture as the 2025 kharif season unfolds, buoyed by a resurgence in monsoon rains and robust demand both domestically and internationally. Despite faltering sowing progress in June caused by delayed rainfall, July’s timely monsoon revival—especially in major growing states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan—has enabled farmers to catch up. Market observers now estimate that national soybean sowing will exceed last year’s 12.3 million hectares, potentially achieving record coverage between 12.7 and 13 million hectares. Gujarat alone marked a 12.5% year-on-year acreage increase, confirming the sector’s resilience and adaptability.

Favorable rainfall patterns have reassured traders about crop prospects, though persistent monsoon support through August remains essential for maximizing yields. With global soybean prices firm and domestic consumption elevated, Indian producers are optimistic, and this sentiment is mirrored by speculative positions seen in international exchanges. The interplay between rainfall, acreage expansion, and sustained demand could shape pricing and trade flows heading into peak harvest. As we transition into the crucial pod-setting stages, market attention will stay focused on both weather developments in India and the evolving US crop outlook—both key levers for short- and medium-term price direction.

📈 Current Market Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery (FOB)	Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Update Date	Weekly Change	Sentiment
China	Yellow, Organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	0.78	0.77	2025-07-30	+0.01	Firm
China	Yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	FOB	0.70	0.69	2025-07-30	+0.01	Stable
USA	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.35	0.35	2025-07-24	0.00	Neutral
India	Sortex Clean	–	No	New Delhi	FOB	0.72	0.71	2025-07-24	+0.01	Upward bias
Ukraine	–	–	No	Odesa	FOB	0.33	0.34	2025-07-24	-0.01	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Indian acreage surge: Sowing estimated between 12.7–13M ha for 2025, up from 12.3M ha last year. Gujarat records a +12.5% YoY increase.
• Rainfall recovery: Monsoon revival in July rescued delayed sowing in major belts—continued rains in August are critical for yield outcomes.
• Global firm prices: US and Brazilian soybean benchmarks remain well supported on weather risk premiums and strong Chinese demand.
• Speculative activity: Net long positions on CBOT soybeans have grown, reflecting optimism on both Indian crop progress and residual US weather uncertainty.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Strong edible oil and animal feed demand continue to underpin Indian and global soybean utilization.
• Stock comparisons: Indian inventories expected to tighten on higher crush rates, while record Brazilian exports and anticipated US harvests are watched closely by importers.
• Comparative international prices (CBOT Sep 2025 for context): $12.75/bu (+0.5% WoW).

☁️ Weather Outlook

• India: IMD forecasts indicate above-average rainfall for central/northwestern India in August, boding well for pod filling but increasing flood risks in some regions.
• US Midwest: Current NOAA data suggest alternating wet-dry patterns. Timely August rains are crucial for pod set; drought pockets remain a watch area.
• Brazil: Weather stable; farmers are preparing for the next crop cycle starting in September.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	YoY Change (%)
Brazil	155	32	+2%
USA	113	8	+1%
Argentina	51	9	+12%
India	13	1.7	+7%
China (import)	18	10	+6%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider forward sales on rallies; watch for volatility from August weather.
• Importers: Diversify sources given Indian acreage and possible wet-weather disruptions in South Asia.
• Speculators: Maintain bullish bias on weather risk but trail stops closely—US Midwest remains a wild card.
• Processors: Lock in crush margins with expanding Indian production but hedge inventory risk if monsoon persists beyond ideal window.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Last Close (€/kg)	Forecast Range (€/kg)	Trend
CBOT (Sep)	0.335	0.33–0.34	Stable to firm
Euronext	0.375	0.36–0.38	Sideways
India (Delhi)	0.72	0.71–0.74	Upward bias