Wheat Market Report: Stable Domestic Trends, Pressured by International Weakness

In recent weeks, the global wheat market reveals a tale of two dynamics: domestic steadiness in major consuming centers and downward pressure in international benchmarks. India’s wheat arrivals into key mandis have increased, yet price levels have defied a typical decline amid strong and persistent demand. The Indian government’s intervention—selling from buffer stocks—has ensured retail prices remain under control and sentiment stable. As a case in point, quotes for mill-quality wheat in Ahmedabad have remained unmoved at $3.28 per 10 kg despite an influx of 1,600 quintals and solid mill buying. Other centers like Rajkot and Gondal mirror this trend, with prices sticking in the $3.28–$3.36 range across grades and little evidence of speculative build-up.

Globally, however, wheat markets softened notably. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures dropped by 2.22 cents, closing at $5.22 per bushel, reflecting confidence in ample global supply and successful recent harvests in key exporting nations. European and Black Sea offers remain competitive, thanks to harvest progress and stable weather so far this season. The combination of robust arrivals, buffer stock releases, and subdued international benchmarks limits any prospect of a sudden rally in spot or futures prices near-term.

With consistent arrivals, healthy pipeline stocks, and the government playing an active management role, India looks poised for continued short-term price stability—though all eyes will remain on weather in the Black Sea and US Midwest as the market enters the critical late-summer window.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Location	Grade/Spec	Current Price	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT (US)	Benchmark (Protein 11.5%)	$5.22 / bushel	$5.244 / bushel	-2.22 cents	Bearish
Washington D.C. (US)	CBOT min. 11.5%	€0.22/kg	€0.22/kg	0%	Stable
Paris (FR)	min. 11.0%	€0.28/kg	€0.28/kg	0%	Stable
Odesa (UA)	min. 11.0% FOB	€0.20/kg	€0.19/kg	+5%	Firming
Ahmedabad (IN)	Mill Quality	$3.28 / 10kg	$3.28 / 10kg	0%	Stable
Rajkot (IN)	Mill Quality	$3.28-3.32 / 10kg	$3.28-3.32 / 10kg	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Increased wheat arrivals in Indian mandis but prices stayed stable—indicating continued mill demand and lack of hoarding/speculation.
• Indian government released buffer stocks to limit retail price increases, smoothing volatility and discouraging aggressive upside moves.
• Global supply is robust: US, Australia, and Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia) exporting at steady pace due to recent harvests and favorable crop outlooks.
• Global end-user demand remains steady with key buyers in the Middle East/North Africa closely monitoring price dips to cover forward needs.

📊 Fundamentals

• Latest USDA reports confirm larger-than-expected US wheat acreage and strong yield projections; world wheat inventories have improved from last season.
• No significant speculative buildup in managed money positions reported on CBOT or Euronext exchanges, resulting in a lackluster price response to positive arrivals.
• Indian millers and traders expect price stability in near-term due to steady domestic supply and government action.
• European and Black Sea origin wheat offers remain competitive, with slight firming in Ukrainian FOB values due to logistical factors.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest Plains: Near-term weather forecasts remain neutral-to-positive, with sufficient moisture and moderate temperatures aiding crop maturity.
• Black Sea Region: No significant heatwaves forecast; adequate rainfall expected in Ukraine and south Russia, supporting late-harvested fields and minimizing yield risk.
• India: Seasonal monsoon is on track; growing/harvesting regions remain unaffected with stable wheat supplies reported in major centers.
• Overall: No evident weather threats in key global wheat regions for the next 7–10 days, supporting ongoing harvest pressure and maintaining ample supply.

🗺️ Production & Stocks: Global Snapshot

Country/Region	2024/25 Output (mmt)	Ending Stocks (mmt)
US	49.3	18.1
EU	130.0	11.2
Russia	85.0	13.8
Ukraine	21.0	2.3
India	112.0	13.7

💡 Trading Outlook

• Expect continued stability in Indian spot prices, especially with ongoing government stock releases and steady arrivals.
• Global traders can anticipate near-term price softness; international buyers should watch for opportunistic dips.
• Bullish triggers could arise from unexpected weather events in the Black Sea or surge in import demand from North Africa/Middle East.
• Risk to the downside if global yields outperform further and speculative selling increases on international exchanges.
• Consider short-term hedging of physical exposure as price risks remain skewed moderately lower next week.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• CBOT: $5.18–$5.28/bushel (Bearish bias, modest volatility)
• Euronext (Paris): €0.27–€0.28/kg (Sideways)
• Odesa (UA FOB): €0.20–€0.21/kg (Potential slight strengthening)
• Ahmedabad, IN: $3.28/10kg (Stable)
• Rajkot, IN: $3.28–$3.32/10kg (Stable)