The global chilli market is demonstrating remarkable resilience as farmers hold firm amid surging prices. Despite ongoing price increases, there is a notable lack of urgency among red chilli growers to offload stocks, resulting in a persistently constrained supply environment. Out of season, daily arrivals to major mandis continue at subdued levels—remaining well below typical peak season volumes—which has underpinned robust wholesale prices. Processors and exporters, particularly from India’s heartland regions, are intensifying their purchasing activities in a bid to secure inventory ahead of expected further appreciation for both premium and secondary chilli varieties.
Export demand, especially from Southeast Asia and the Middle East, adds further support to the market. Meanwhile, lower output this season—driven by crop switching, higher input costs, and erratic weather—has left farm and trader inventories depleted. Wholesale trade sentiment is increasingly bullish, emboldened by swift drawdowns of cold storage stocks for top-grade chillies such as Teja and 334. Ongoing bullish sentiment is echoed by firm bids from masala manufacturers and healthy retail market stability. With key regions of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra contributing to both procurement and demand, market participants expect little downside risk to prices in the short-to-medium term.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
FOB 4.85 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
powder, grade a
FOB 4.59 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
flakes, grade a
FOB 4.56 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | Bird eye, grade A, organic | IN | New Delhi | 4.85 | 4.82 | 2025-08-02 | Firm/Bullish |
| Chilli dried | Powder, grade A, organic | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 4.59 | 4.56 | 2025-08-02 | Firm/Bullish |
| Chilli dried | Flakes, grade A, organic | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 4.56 | 4.53 | 2025-08-02 | Firm |
| Chilli dried | With stem | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 2.30 | 2.27 | 2025-08-02 | Firm |
| Chilli dried | Whole, stemless, grade A | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 2.33 | 2.30 | 2025-08-02 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Farmers are reluctant sellers due to bullish price expectations, keeping supplies tight.
- Processors and exporters are actively buying to secure limited available stocks.
- Daily arrivals: 40–50 truckloads, compared to the 100+ truckloads of peak season.
- Major procurement hubs: Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra.
- Export demand: Stable, notably from Southeast Asia and Middle East buyers.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production Down: Many growers shifted to alternative crops due to higher costs and unpredictable weather.
- Stocks Depleting: Both farm-level and trader inventories are at lower levels year-on-year, especially for premium Teja and 334.
- Wholesale Hot, Retail Calm: Robust exporter and processor demand, while retail prices steady.
- Speculation: Farmer sentiment overwhelmingly bullish, anticipating further appreciation for special grades.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Erratic monsoon patterns in major producing states (Andhra Pradesh, Telangana) have hindered optimal sowing and overall yield potential.
- Meteorological forecasts for the next 2–3 weeks indicate intermittent showers but not enough to significantly reverse production shortfalls.
- Persistent heat spells could further reduce late-maturing crop output and diminish recovery prospects.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- India remains the dominant supplier, but lower output is mirrored in exporting rival countries, tightening global trade flows.
- Importing regions (Southeast Asia, Middle East) continue to show steady to rising demand, maintaining upward export price pressure.
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Maintain long positions, particularly in premium varieties (Teja, 334)—bullish undertone persists.
- Exporters should secure contracts early due to anticipated further stock tightening.
- Processors advised to lock in supply and pricing for the next 1–2 months to avoid further cost escalation.
- Monitor weather developments in key growing belts—any adverse trend could accelerate upward price moves.
- Watch for regional festival demand spikes which could intensify spot market volatility.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Indian Mandis)
| Variety | Region | Current Price (USD/quintal) |
Forecast Range (Next 3 Days, USD/quintal) |
Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teja | Andhra Pradesh | 170 | 170–178 | Firm/Bullish |
| 334 | Andhra Pradesh | 150–164 | 155–168 | Firm |
| Premium Red Chilli | Pan-India | 162–170 | 165–175 | Firm/Bullish |
