Vietnam Rice Prices Soar—Robust Demand and Tight Supply Propel Market Higher

Vietnam’s rice market has entered a phase of heightened volatility and price strength, garnering global attention as benchmark export prices hit near three-month highs. Over the past week, 5% broken rice from Vietnam shot up to $395–$400/ton—rising sharply from the previous $372–$377/ton—a surge that reflects one of the steepest weekly gains seen this quarter. This uptick is driven by resurgent demand from key buyers (notably Indonesia, the Philippines, and Africa), anxiety over potential El Niño disruptions in Asia, and tightening availability among major exporting countries. Traders report intensified inquiries as importers seek to secure stock ahead of anticipated production risks, compounding price momentum.

Vietnamese exporters, currently cautious in offering large spots before harvest, are benefiting as stricter Indian regulations and surging Indian prices shift global import focus their way. Government procurement measures in Bangladesh and the disappointing pace of Pakistani exports amplify supply tightness, supporting the bullish trend. Domestically, Vietnamese supply is stable for the moment, but large-volume deals remain limited as exporters wait for clearer harvest outcomes. All evidence points toward increased competition for limited cargo, with global buyers accelerating procurement in expectation of further price escalations. The rice market stands at a pivotal juncture—bracing for further volatility, weather-driven risks, and a changing landscape of global trade flows.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Vietnam	5% Broken, Long White	Hanoi FOB	0.63	0.61	+3.3%	Bullish
Vietnam	Jasmine	Hanoi FOB	0.65	0.63	+3.2%	Bullish
Vietnam	Japonica	Hanoi FOB	0.75	0.73	+2.7%	Bullish
Vietnam	Homali	Hanoi FOB	0.80	0.78	+2.6%	Bullish
India	All Golden, Sella	New Delhi FOB	1.06	1.06	0%	Stable
India	All Steam, PR11	New Delhi FOB	0.57	0.57	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Demand: Stronger import demand as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Africa frontload purchases on supply fears.
• Supply: Exporters in Vietnam are limiting spot sales prior to the next harvest; Indian exports are constrained by regulation and price.
• Market focus: Bangladesh’s procurement and Pakistan’s sluggish export pace lend further support to tightness.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global Benchmark: Vietnam 5% broken rice: $395–$400/ton (up $23/ton week-on-week)
• Comparative Indian rice prices: Remain elevated (All golden, sella: 1.06 EUR/kg); regulatory policy discourages exporters.
• Speculative Positioning: Importers are accelerating orders, fearing future disruptions.
• Inventories: Global stocks remain below average, especially in major SE Asian and South Asian exporting countries.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Southeast Asia: El Niño remains a threat to rice yields, with weather models suggesting drier-than-usual patterns in Vietnam and Thailand for the next two weeks. While current Vietnamese crops are stable, further stress could dent yield expectations in late summer.
• India: Mixed monsoon signals; early-season dryness in eastern India could crimp main-crop output despite overall satisfactory rains elsewhere.
• Pakistan, Thailand: Both regions face moderately dry outlooks, raising yield risks for upcoming harvests.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	Production 2023/24 (MT)	Stock 2023/24 (MT)	YoY Change
India	125.0	32.0	-2%
Vietnam	44.0	7.7	-1%
Thailand	19.5	4.1	-1%
Paksitan	8.5	0.8	-4%
China	147.5	101.8	Stable
Philippines	12.6	2.2	-3%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect upward price pressure on Vietnamese and Thai rice for the next two weeks as weather risk intensifies.
• Importers: Secure near-term supplies and consider forward contracts to mitigate price risk.
• Exporters: Manage offer volumes carefully—anticipate further gains but beware of post-harvest corrections if El Niño impact lessens.
• Speculators: Short-term sentiment remains bullish but monitor for signs of government intervention or improved weather.
• Watch Pakistani and Bangladeshi buying as key demand drivers for further price movement.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)
Vietnam (Hanoi FOB)	5% Broken	0.63	0.62 – 0.66
Vietnam (Hanoi FOB)	Jasmine	0.65	0.65 – 0.68
India (New Delhi FOB)	All Golden, Sella	1.06	1.05 – 1.08

 

Short-term bias: Firm to higher, with volatility linked to weather updates and further trade policy signals.