The coconut market is undergoing one of its sharpest price surges in recent history, sending shockwaves through global supply chains and commodity exchanges. A perfect storm of adverse weather, declining yields in the Philippines, Indonesia, and India, and the lack of productive new plantations has created a significant production gap. This has driven coconut oil and dried coconut prices to their highest levels in seven years, with supply unable to keep up with soaring demand from edible oil, processed food, and cosmetic industries. The supply tightness is further compounded by bottlenecks in transportation and export restrictions, especially evident in major Asian supply hubs. Both domestic and international buyers are now competing fiercely for reduced volumes, forcing many to absorb steep cost increases or ration usage.
Coconut processors and food manufacturers globally are urgently seeking alternatives or adjusting formulations to minimize price shocks, while market analysts warn that supply constraints could persist until at least early 2026 unless there’s a rapid recovery in global harvests. This environment presents both risks and opportunities for market participants, from growers to international traders, underscoring the need for close monitoring of regional weather, policy, and inventory trends.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Coconut dried
flakes
FOB 4.62 €/kg
(from VN)
Coconut dried
flakes
FCA 3.06 €/kg
(from NL)
Coconut dried
flakes
FCA 2.68 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut dried | flakes | VN | Hanoi, VN | FOB | 4.62 | 4.62 | 2025-08-02 |
| Coconut dried | flakes (organic) | PH | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 3.06 | 3.06 | 2025-08-02 |
| Coconut dried | flakes | PH | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 2.68 | 2.68 | 2025-08-02 |
| Coconut dried | desiccated medium | ID | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 1.93 | 1.93 | 2025-08-02 |
| Coconut dried | desiccated | ID | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 1.96 | 1.96 | 2025-08-02 |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Global production (2023-24): Estimated at 3.90 million metric tons, down sharply from 4.10 million last year—the largest YoY drop in recent memory.
- Leading Producers: Philippines, Indonesia, and India all report significant declines due to erratic weather (droughts, typhoons) and aging plantations.
- Philippines: Significant output drop from weather volatility; export rationing underway.
- Indonesia: Lower yields, particularly in Sumatra and Sulawesi.
- India: Severe shortages in Kerala and Tamil Nadu; wholesale prices in Kerala hit $5.50/kg.
- Export & Trade: Raw coconut oil prices in Asia average $1,800/ton (vs. $1,400 several months ago), with local mills struggling to meet global orders.
- Demand: Remains robust in both food processing and personal care segments, aggravating price pressure.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA and trade data underscore a tight global stock situation—inventory drawdowns in all major exporting countries.
- Speculative positioning: Traders have increased long positions in coconut derivatives, anticipating ongoing tightness and high volatility.
- Processing & refining: Capacity underutilized; refiners face raw material shortages and high spot prices.
- Consumption shift: Some end users substituting coconut oil with alternatives (e.g., palm, soybean oil) where feasible.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Yield Impact
- Philippines: Recent data shows above-normal rainfall in Luzon but ongoing drought risks in Mindanao. The situation remains precarious for future planting.
- Indonesia: Early forecasts project a mild El Niño persistency, suggesting further stress on coconut groves in eastern provinces for the next 2–3 months. Moisture deficits could linger unless significant rainfall occurs.
- India: Monsoon onset has been weaker than average in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Soil moisture remains low, with no major improvement in short-term satellite outlooks.
- Crop Yields: If current weather trends persist, no major output rebound is likely before the end of 2025, supporting a prolonged period of high prices.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2022-23 Production (mn tons) | 2023-24 Production (mn tons) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines | 1.70 | 1.56 | -8% |
| Indonesia | 1.20 | 1.09 | -9% |
| India | 0.85 | 0.76 | -11% |
| Total | 4.10 | 3.90 | -5% |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🟢 Producers: Consider forward contracts to lock in high prices.
- 🟡 Exporters: Monitor shipment timing closely; prioritize key long-term buyers to mitigate further rationing risk.
- 🟠 Food manufacturers: Explore substitution strategies and renegotiate supplier contracts in advance.
- 🔴 Importers: Prepare for continued cost inflation—secure inventories early and diversify sourcing where possible.
- 🔵 Traders: Volatility likely to persist—short-term pullbacks possible on news of harvest improvements, but overall trend remains bullish into 2026.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | Coconut dried flakes | 4.62 | 4.70 – 4.80 | Bullish |
| Dordrecht (NL) | Coconut dried flakes (organic, PH) | 3.06 | 3.10 – 3.15 | Bullish |
| Dordrecht (NL) | Coconut dried flakes (PH) | 2.68 | 2.73 – 2.80 | Bullish |
Price uncertainty and volatility remain very high as market participants continue to weigh supply news and weather risks.