Onion Market Update: Prices Remain Under Pressure Amid Sluggish Demand

This week, onion markets have continued to encounter subdued trading volumes and softer price action. Market sentiment is weighed by thin arrivals and a lack of robust buying interest from major traders. In both the main wholesale market and Mahuva mandi, arrivals stagnated at 280 metric tons—a sharp decline versus the seasonal norm—while Nashik, the principal production hub, showed marginally higher inflows.

The price behavior followed suit: medium-quality onions in the wholesale market traded between $318 and $384 per metric ton, reflecting a drop of approximately $30-$36 compared to previous weeks. Even in Nashik, where arrivals were slightly healthier (500 metric tons), prices remained firm, with an average of $488 per metric ton. Until demand revives or large-scale buyers re-enter, onion prices are likely to remain range-bound. Recent updates on processed onion products show incremental firming in prices, especially for powders and flakes in the Indian export market. The overall fundamentals indicate a market in search of its next catalyst—be it on the demand or weather side—to shift the current equilibrium.

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📈 Prices: Wholesale & Export Onion Market

Market/Product	Location	Type	Latest Price	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Fresh Onion (Mandi Avg)	Main Wholesale	Medium Quality	$348	$378*	-8%	USD/MT	Bearish
Fresh Onion	Mahuva	All Grades	$336 – $405	$366 – $441*	-8%	USD/MT	Soft
Fresh Onion	Nashik	All Grades	$445 – $527	$462 – $538*	-3%	USD/MT	Firm
Onion Powder	New Delhi	Grade – B	€1.33/kg	€1.32/kg	+0.8%	EUR	Neutral
Onion Powder	New Delhi	White	€1.60/kg	€1.59/kg	+0.6%	EUR	Stable
Onion (Organic Powder)	New Delhi	Powder	€2.68/kg	€2.67/kg	+0.4%	EUR	Stable
Onion (Flakes, Organic)	New Delhi	Flakes	€5.15/kg	€5.14/kg	+0.2%	EUR	Stable
Onions Fried	Lodz	Crispy	€3.42/kg	€3.42/kg	0%	EUR	Neutral
Fresh Onion (Export)	Cairo	Organic	€0.81/kg	€0.80/kg	+1.2%	EUR	Slightly Firm

*Previous week estimates. For the most recent export offers, see table above or export offers shortcut.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Daily mandi arrivals are below normal at ~280 MT in both the wholesale and Mahuva markets.
• Nashik reports higher arrivals (500 MT), lending some price support locally.
• Buyer activity is limited, with small-to-medium quantity trades prevailing.
• No presence of large institutional or export buyers; demand insufficient for stronger rebound.
• Stock levels in India and Egypt remain moderate; exportable surplus persists but face weaker global pull.

📊 Market Fundamentals & External Influences

• Price correction reflects subdued domestic and export demand for fresh onions.
• Modest price upticks visible in value-added segments (powder, flakes), indicating diversification in demand.
• Market sentiment hinges on upcoming procurement for festivals/monsoon season or a weather-driven supply disruption.
• No major government interventions or stock limits announced recently; watch for potential policy changes if volatility rises.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Weather in Maharashtra (Nashik/Mahuva belts) remains favorable overall, with scattered rainfall aiding late crop maturity.
• No major adverse weather seen in next 10 days; however, patchy rainfall forecast could delay local harvesting.
• Higher rainfall risks could challenge storage and logistics, putting upward pressure on prices mid-term if realized.

🌐 Global Trade Snapshot

Country	2024 Production (Est.)	Stocks (Est.)	Export Volume	Import Needs
India	26.6 MMT	2.8 MMT	1.5 MMT	Minor
Egypt	3.3 MMT	0.4 MMT	1.1 MMT	Low
Netherlands	1.6 MMT	0.3 MMT	1.02 MMT	Medium
Bangladesh	2 MMT	0.2 MMT	Minor	Significant
Indonesia	1.6 MMT	0.1 MMT	Negl.	Significant

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Fresh Market: Expect prices to remain range-bound; limited upside unless festival/weather trigger emerges.
• Exporters: Monitor South-East Asian buying for short-covering opportunities amid low Indian arrivals.
• Processors: Gradual pick-up in powder/flake demand suggests hedging could be advantageous at current rates.
• Watch closely for government procurement or tariff changes—potential pivots for the market in Q3.
• Keep an eye on weather for signs of harvest/transport disruptions in Maharashtra and Gujarat.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market/Exchange	Spot Price	Expected Range	Forecast Sentiment	Currency
Wholesale (India, Avg)	$348	$345 – $355	Range-bound	USD/MT
Mahuva (India)	$370	$365 – $382	Soft	USD/MT
Nashik (India)	$488	$480 – $500	Stable	USD/MT
New Delhi Export	€1.33 – €2.68/kg (Powders)	Flat	Stable	EUR
Cairo Export	€0.81/kg	€0.80 – €0.82	Slightly Firm	EUR