The global garlic market finds itself at a crucial juncture with a tug-of-war between major traders’ supply restrictions and persistently weak demand capping any significant price recovery. Key Indian wholesale markets, including Jamnagar, Jetpur, Rajkot, and Gondal, report deliberate supply withholding by major traders aiming to halt the ongoing price slide. Despite steady arrivals—albeit at muted levels—active selling remains restricted, with the market average sitting close to $1.26 per kg and only top-quality lots touching $1.38 per kg. European export interest has also sagged, and retail momentum is sluggish, creating an air of uncertainty about the direction of prices in the immediate future.
Market insiders are closely watching retail offtake and export inquiries, particularly heading into August, as these will likely determine whether recent supply control measures can spark a rebound or if oversupply and weak demand will push prices further down. Read on for prices, supply-demand drivers, weather risks, and strategic recommendations.
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Garlic
powder
FOB 6.60 €/kg
(from IN)
Garlic
fresh
FOB 0.99 €/kg
(from EG)
📈 Prices
| Market/Location | Product Type | Origin | Latest Price (€/kg) | Previous Price (€/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Powder (Organic) | India | 6.60 | 6.60 | 2025-08-02 | Stable • Weak Demand |
| Kairo (FOB) | Fresh | Egypt | 0.99 | 0.99 | 2025-08-02 | Stable • Weak Export Interest |
| Jamnagar (Spot) | Fresh | India | 1.26 (avg.) | 1.26 (avg.) | 2024-08-02 | Sideways |
| Jetpur (Spot) | Fresh | India | 1.02–1.38 | 1.02–1.38 | 2024-08-02 | Sideways |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply Side: Active supply control measures by major traders in Indian key regions (Jamnagar, Jetpur, Rajkot) to prevent further price drops.
- Arrivals remain ample but are now withheld from markets to limit downside pressure.
- Demand Side: Retail and export demand have not picked up, leading to stagnant prices. Lack of significant export orders, especially from Europe and the Middle East, continues to weigh.
- Inventories: Sizable stock available but being held back by commission agents and storage operators; risk of inventory build-up if demand doesn’t rebound.
📊 Fundamentals
- Recent Market Reports: The last garlic market report flagged similar supply holding patterns, with traders previously supporting prices via inventory strategies — showing little change in market tactics.
- Latest Observations: No fresh bullish triggers detected; speculative activity is low as most are adopting a wait-and-watch approach ahead of August’s demand uptick window.
- Global Context: Major exporters like China and Egypt have seen steady production, but sluggish import demand in major destinations is pressing prices lower globally.
🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook
- India (Primary production zones): Current weather is favorable with no major threats to yield reported; however, any unexpected late monsoon activity could impact storage quality.
- China: Mild summer so far is aiding strong supply, and no significant flood or drought alerts are active for major garlic regions.
- Egypt & Mediterranean: Stable conditions support harvest and storage. Weather is neutral for yield risk, keeping pressure on global surplus.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (million MT) | 2024/25 Stocks (est.) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | ~23.0 | High | World’s largest, facing low export offtake |
| India | ~2.8 | Ample | Market stocks rising despite trader control |
| Egypt | ~0.7 | Moderate | Stable exports, struggling demand from Europe |
| Bangladesh, Pakistan | Combined <0.5 | Low | Minimal impact globally |
📆 Market Drivers & Trading Outlook
- Key Drivers: Trader supply management, subdued retail/export demand, high carryover stocks.
- USDA & International Reports: No recent upward revisions in acreage or global trade flows; sentiment is neutral to bearish until export demand revives.
- Speculative Positioning: Low, with most commercial players reducing exposure and awaiting clearer trend signals.
- Market Recommendations:
- Producers: Tightly manage storage and cash sales; avoid heavy offloading as demand is weak.
- Exporters/Traders: Monitor forex rates and demand from Southeast Asia & Middle East for any sudden inquiries.
- Buyers: Negotiate for discounts as suppliers are under pressure; watch Asia’s festivals/holiday triggers for purchase timing.
- Speculators: Remain on the sidelines or favor short-term range trades until a breakout in demand or fresh supply disruption.
📊 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Product | Current Price (€/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Powder (Organic) | 6.60 | 6.55 – 6.65 | Stable |
| Kairo (FOB) | Fresh | 0.99 | 0.97 – 1.00 | Weak – Downside Risk |
| Jamnagar Region | Fresh (Spot) | 1.26 | 1.20 – 1.28 | Flat |
