The global almond market is experiencing a season of mixed signals. In Kashmir, a record harvest has provided temporary relief for growers, fuelling short-term optimism in India’s prime almond-producing region. Yet beneath the surface, urgent challenges threaten the industry’s long-term viability. Between 2006–07 and 2019–20, Kashmir’s almond acreage shrank by nearly 75%, as rapid urbanization, rising property values, and a shift towards higher-margin crops (like apples) have led to widespread conversion of orchard lands. Almond yields have fallen from over 15,000 tonnes to under 10,000 tonnes in the same period.
This structural decline has not been offset by market support mechanisms: the absence of centralized selling platforms forces growers into fragmented, low-margin channels dominated by middlemen. Despite this adversity, some hope arises from the adoption of high-density cultivation methods, which could dramatically improve output per hectare. Market prices for almond kernels in Europe and the US have risen slightly over the past week, reflecting both healthy demand and weather-driven crop uncertainty in key export regions. However, sustainability concerns, policy inertia, and erratic market linkages will determine whether this turnaround is fleeting or the start of a true renaissance for the almond sector.
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.78 €/kg
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.72 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.38 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Location | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Change (%) | Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Carmel, SSR, 18/20 | Washington D.C. | 6.78 | 6.73 | +0.74 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| US | Carmel, SSR 20/22 | Washington D.C. | 6.72 | 6.68 | +0.60 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| US | Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR, Organic | Washington D.C. | 9.38 | 9.33 | +0.54 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| Spain | Marcona, 12/14 | Madrid | 6.71 | 6.66 | +0.75 | 2025-08-02 | Neutral |
| Spain | Marcona, 14/16 | Madrid | 8.30 | 8.25 | +0.60 | 2025-08-02 | Neutral |
| Spain | Marcona, S/16 | Madrid | 8.95 | 8.91 | +0.45 | 2025-08-02 | Neutral |
| Spain | Valencia, 10/12 | Madrid | 5.70 | 5.64 | +1.06 | 2025-08-02 | Bullish |
| Iran | Sangi, Inshell | Tehran | 1.88 | 1.82 | +3.30 | 2025-07-23 | Slightly Bullish |
| Iran | Mamra, Grade A | Tehran | 11.18 | 10.95 | +2.10 | 2025-07-23 | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Kashmir Bumper Crop: A robust harvest in 2025 brings short-term supply relief, but is offset by shrinking almond acreage and dropping output over the last decade.
- Global Dominance: California remains the world’s top exporter (nearly 80% global share), with India, EU, and China as major importers. Spanish production is steady. Iran and Turkey supply premium niche and inshell varieties.
- India: Jammu and Kashmir still accounts for 90%+ of Indian almonds, but future supply is at risk without land reform and better market access.
- Demand Growth: Consumption remains robust in Asia and Europe, supported by healthy snack trends.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production Trend: Long-term decline in Kashmir (from 16,374 ha to 4,177 ha between 2006 and 2020; 35% drop in tonnage).
- Market Channels: Lack of central dry fruit markets/mandis depresses grower prices in India; California’s crop is efficiently marketed.
- Technology: High-density cultivation is a potential game changer for boosting yields per hectare in shrinking available land.
- Speculative Positioning: No major speculative run observed—prices reflect mainly fundamentals and seasonal weather risk.
🌤️ Weather Outlook
- Kashmir & Northern India: 2025 features favorable weather with ideal flowering and nut set. Mild summer and adequate rainfall point to above-average yields for the coming harvest.
- California: Ongoing summer heatwave, but well-established orchards are irrigated—potential yield risk if drought persists or water allocations are cut.
- Spain: Season progressing normally with mild spring, no major frost or drought events—stable yield expected.
- Iran & Turkey: Mixed early summer weather; no major frost, but isolated hail reported in some mountain regions.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Output Estimate (tonnes) | Change YoY (%) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA (California) | 1,270,000 | +2.5 | Stable to Rising |
| Spain | 110,000 | +1.0 | Rising |
| Iran | 120,000 | 0.0 | Steady |
| India | 9,900 | +15.0 | Rising (short-term) |
| Turkey | 18,000 | +2.0 | Steady |
📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish bias for premium grades (organic, nonpareil, Mamra) given tight supply and strong demand.
- Sellers: Consider locking in prices after the recent upward trend, particularly for US/Spanish grades.
- Buyers: Book forward contracts for premium and niche varieties (Mamra, Marcona) to hedge against supply risk.
- Watch for: Weather volatility in California and water situation; any escalation in India’s regulatory support for almond orchards.
- Monitor: Progress of high-density plantations in India as a signal of longer-term supply response.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Washington D.C. (US, Nonpareil kern.) | 9.38 | 9.40–9.48 (mild upward trend) |
| Madrid (ES, Marcona S/16) | 8.95 | 9.00–9.10 (steady/signs of firming) |
| Tehran (IR, Mamra grade A) | 11.18 | 11.20–11.30 (bullish, premium tight) |
