Mustard Seeds Market Eases: Tepid Buying and Subdued Sentiment Weigh on Prices

The mustard seeds market continued its downward trend this week as weak demand from oil mills and sluggish retail offtake pressured prices in both spot and futures markets. Despite stability and buoyancy in other edible oil segments such as palm and soybean oil, mustard seeds failed to attract similar support. In Jaipur, bulk mustard seed prices slipped by $0.30 per 100 kg, now ranging between $90.60 and $91.20 per 100 kg. Corresponding declines were observed in mustard oil and meal as millers showed limited buying intent due to persistently slow retail demand and sufficient inventories. Trade participants highlight the lack of aggressive procurement as a core factor behind the price softness, even as other oilseeds showed mixed global trends. Malaysian palm oil gained on higher export expectations, while US soybean oil posted minor losses, underscoring the divergent external signals influencing the sector. On the NCDEX, August contracts for mustard remained stuck in a narrow range, reflecting subdued market sentiment and tepid physical arrivals. As the market eyes upcoming harvests and monitors weather volatility across major producing areas, traders are proceeding with caution, balancing local sluggishness against varied global cues.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Purity	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Sentiment
Yellow, micro, sortex	IN	New Delhi	99.95%	FOB	0.83	0.85	-0.02	Bearish
Yellow, bold, sortex	IN	New Delhi	99.95%	FOB	0.99	1.01	-0.02	Bearish
Brown, micro, sortex	IN	New Delhi	N/A	FOB	0.83	0.85	-0.02	Bearish
Brown, bold, sortex	IN	New Delhi	99.95%	FOB	0.76	0.78	-0.02	Bearish
Sinapis alba	KZ	Kiełczygłow (PL)	99.5%	FCA	0.75	0.74	+0.01	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Processors are minimizing purchases due to slow retail sales of mustard oil, despite firmness in other edible oils.
• Arrivals remain limited, but this has not offset the tepid demand environment.
• Futures trading on NCDEX signals subdued market mood, lacking aggressive buying interest.
• Globally, higher palm oil export expectations lent some support to rival oils, but this failed to spill over to mustard seeds.
• USDA’s slight adjustment in oilseed production estimates and ongoing speculative positioning add uncertainty to forward sentiment.

📊 Fundamental Data & Global Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production Estimates (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	Notes
India	~12.0	~2.1	Largest world producer; supplies local crush.
Canada	~1.0	~0.2	Key exporter, especially for yellow/brown varieties.
Ukraine	~0.5	~0.1	Limited export presence; affected by logistics.
Kazakhstan	~0.3	~0.07	Increasing EU market share.

Note: All figures are estimates and subject to revision as harvest updates emerge.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India: Monsoon rainfall has been patchy; Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh report below-average precipitation, prompting concerns over the next crop cycle’s yield strength.
• Canada: Recent rain may benefit late crops but cannot fully offset early-season dryness.
• Ukraine & Kazakhstan: Warm weather supports crop development, but isolated storms have caused some lodging and minor losses.

The immediate effects on Indian crops could slow planting progress, amplifying concerns if weather volatility continues. Moisture stress may lead to lower oil content/yield in locally harvested seed.

📆 Market Drivers & Outlook

• Subdued retail demand keeps processor inventories high and buying low.
• Seasonal patterns suggest continued narrow range-bound price action until clear weather or festival-led demand changes the equation.
• International edible oil market dynamics, especially palm and soybean, are influencing sentiment more than fundamentals in mustard.
• Speculative short-term positions may extend downside pressure if demand does not improve soon.
• Weather risk for new crop plantings remains the principal variable for Q3/Q4 outlook.

🔎 Trading Recommendations

• Traders should maintain a cautious stance and avoid large fresh positions until physical demand improves.
• Exporters may monitor price cues from rival oil meals for arbitrage opportunities.
• Buyers could seek price dips for selective forward coverage, especially if monsoon worries persist.
• Short-term bear spreads on NCDEX may be considered if the weak trend continues, but set tight stops.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Exchange/Market	Latest Price	Forecast (3 Days)
Jaipur (Spot)	Physical	$90.60–$91.20/100kg	$90.50–$91.10/100kg; Weak to Steady
New Delhi	FOB Export	EUR 0.83–0.99/kg	EUR 0.81–0.97/kg; Weak Bias
NCDEX	Futures (Aug)	$193.80–$195.70/quintal	$192.00–$194.50/quintal; Bearish