The global corn market is navigating a period of notable flux as increased production across India—particularly in key states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar—combines with timely monsoon rains, bolstering dry maize stocks. While this surge in supply is particularly evident in lower-quality grades, the market is experiencing a scarcity of premium, high-quality corn. Against this backdrop, Indian government interventions remain minimal, with no Minimum Support Price (MSP) purchase program announced for maize last year. Yet, prices have remained relatively stable: high-quality corn in Haryana and Punjab currently fetches between $30.85 and $31.20 per 100 kg, while lesser grades in Bihar are trading at $27.00 to $27.30 per 100 kg. Globally, the market shows similar stability, but traders anticipate renewed downward pressure as newly harvested dry corn from Uttar Pradesh arrives in the market. Internationally, prices across key origins like France, Ukraine, and Argentina have been steady, with minor upticks noted for specific specialty products such as organic or popcorn-grade corn.
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📈 Prices
Origin/Exchange | Type | Location | Delivery | Price | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IN (Haryana/Punjab) | High quality | Local Market | Spot | $30.85–$31.20 / 100 kg | Stable | Neutral |
IN (Bihar) | Lower quality | Local Market | Spot | $27.00–$27.30 / 100 kg | Stable/Soft | Bearish |
UA (Odesa) | Feed grade, moisture 14.5% | FCA | Spot | €0.26/kg | Unchanged | Neutral |
UA (Odesa) | Standard | FOB | Spot | €0.20/kg | Unchanged | Neutral |
FR (Paris) | Yellow | FOB | Spot | €0.25/kg | +€0.01 | Bullish |
IN (Delhi) | Starch, Organic | FOB | Spot | €1.94/kg | +€0.02 | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Output boosted by excellent growing conditions, especially early monsoon rains; high stock levels in most regions; lower-quality grades in surplus, premium corn in short supply.
- Global: Major producers (USA, China, Brazil, Ukraine, France) report stable-to-positive production levels; Ukraine and France see slight upward price momentum, while South American supplies stabilize at high levels.
- Market flow: Rising supply in India may pressure prices regionally, especially for sub-premium grades. Export competitiveness remains steady for EU and Black Sea supplies.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA reports indicate ample global stocks, despite slightly reduced inventories year-on-year due to robust demand from biofuels and animal feed sectors.
- No MSP purchases in India last year kept market-driven pricing regime intact; government inventory intervention is not expected imminently.
- Speculative positioning on CBOT has turned slightly bearish as Asian and European physical supply remains strong and weather outlook is favorable.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India: Ongoing monsoon conditions predicted to remain normal-to-above normal into the next week in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, supporting yield potentials but elevating harvesting/storage risks for late crops.
- US Corn Belt: Recent timely rains have boosted late crop condition ratings; moderate temperatures forecasted aid kernel filling and maturation.
- Ukraine & Western Europe: Warm and moderately dry conditions persist; some concern over late-season drought stress, but outlook supports steady yields.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
Country | 2024/25 Production* | 2024/25 Ending Stocks* |
---|---|---|
USA | 389 Mt | 52 Mt |
China | 284 Mt | 207 Mt |
Brazil | 124 Mt | 9 Mt |
India | 37 Mt | 4 Mt |
Ukraine | 28 Mt | 2.2 Mt |
EU-27 | 56 Mt | 14 Mt |
*Estimates from USDA, updated July 2024
📆 Trading Outlook
- Expect continued downward price pressure in Indian markets, especially for lower grades entering post-harvest peaks.
- High-quality corn will command a premium amid persistent scarcity for premium processing/brewing demand.
- International buyers should monitor EU and Black Sea origin offers; French corn gaining slight bullish traction, while Ukrainian offers remain range-bound.
- Feed manufacturers could consider incremental buying as price pressure for lower grades may accelerate in the next two weeks.
- Price volatility may increase if weather turns unexpectedly in any key production region.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- Haryana/Punjab (IN): $31.00–$31.10/100kg – Stable to slightly softer as supply pressure builds.
- Bihar (IN): $26.80–$27.20/100kg – Slight decline anticipated as new arrivals pick up pace.
- Odesa (UA): €0.25–€0.27/kg – Sideways, with possible firming if Black Sea logistics stabilize.
- Paris (FR): €0.25–€0.26/kg – Mildly bullish sentiment as EU stocks tighten.