Steady Yet Cautious: Cashew Market Holds as Buying Interest Fades

The global cashew market is entering a period of stabilization following a short-lived upward momentum driven by renewed stockist buying. Over the past week, raw cashew prices experienced a moderate increase of nearly $0.24 per kg, moving from $9.36 to $9.60 per kg. This lift, however, proved transitory as demand tapered off, instilling a softer undertone to market sentiment. Industry analysts point to a lack of seasonal support and subdued end-user buying, making a sustained price rally unlikely in the coming days.

With fundamentals such as strong stock positions and stable supplies, cashew market participants remain watchful for any potential corrections but are not bracing for significant volatility. For the next week, price action is expected to be range-bound, with a slight risk to the downside if demand does not pick up. In such an environment, careful management of procurement and inventory is advised for both importers and exporters to optimize returns.

📈 Cashew Prices & Exchange Overview

Product	Grade	Origin	Location	Organic	Delivery (Incoterm)	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change
Cashew kernels	WW320	VN	Hanoi	No	FOB	6.75	6.75	0.00%
Cashew kernels	WW240	VN	Hanoi	No	FOB	7.65	7.65	0.00%
Cashew kernels	WS	VN	Hanoi	No	FOB	5.65	5.65	0.00%
Cashew kernels	W320	IN	New Delhi	No	FOB	6.92	7.07	-2.12%
Cashew kernels	LWP	NL	Dordrecht	No	FCA	3.70	3.70	0.00%
Cashew kernels	WW320	NL	Dordrecht	No	FCA	5.25	5.25	0.00%

Market sentiment: Cautiously neutral, with price action flattening after early gains.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Short-term supply ample: Vietnam and India, the largest exporters, report stable crop flows and adequate processing capacity. No disruptions reported in the latest flows out of both regions.
• Demand softening: After a burst of buying by stockists, end-use demand both in Europe and Asia has faded, pulling back transaction volumes.
• Inventories healthy: Exporters and processors in Vietnam and India are holding adequate stocks, which is muting any urgency from buyers and cushioning prices from upward spikes.
• Speculative demand low: With no clear upward triggers, speculative actors are remaining on the sidelines.

📊 Key Fundamentals

• Recent price momentum: Short-lived increase (+$0.24/kg, about +2.6%) in raw cashew prices due to stockist activity.
• Current price levels: Kernels range from €3.37/kg (NL, SWP) up to €8.62/kg (IN, Organic W320).
• No seasonal support: Cashew harvest cycles do not favor additional upward price movements at this time of year; major producing regions are past the peak harvest window.
• Currency stability: No recent major currency swings affecting export competitiveness for Vietnam, India, or West African origins.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Analysis

• Vietnam: Dry conditions and stable temperatures are prevailing across southern production regions. No threat to ongoing post-harvest supply chain.
• India: Monsoon progression remains within normal parameters in the main growing states (Goa, Kerala, Maharashtra). No drought or flood alerts impacting cashew crops currently.
• West Africa: The harvest is mostly over; storage and logistics are normal. Weather is not a concern for current supplies.

Conclusion: Weather poses no immediate risk to cashew availability or processing in key origins.

🌐 Global Market Snapshot

• Production: Vietnam, India, and West Africa remain the dominant suppliers, together accounting for over 70% of global production.
• Top importers: USA, EU, and China hold the lion’s share of global cashew kernel imports, with a recent trend toward steady but not rapidly growing demand in these markets.
• Stocks: No major drawdowns reported; warehouses and processors indicate that working inventories remain well above seasonal averages.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Steady prices likely for the next 3–5 days, especially for main grades WW320 and WW240.
• Downside risk if demand fails to recover from current subdued levels.
• Stock-holding buyers should remain patient for better buying opportunities in the event of a short-term correction.
• Long-term buyers may begin gradual restocking if price dips below last week’s highs.
• Exporters and processors advised to manage inventory in anticipation of slow trading through the remainder of the month.

🔎 3-day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Grade	Current (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range	Sentiment
Hanoi (VN)	WW320	6.75	6.70–6.80	Neutral / Slight Downside
Hanoi (VN)	WW240	7.65	7.65–7.75	Stable
New Delhi (IN)	W320	6.92	6.85–6.95	Soft / Downside Risk
Dordrecht (NL)	WW320	5.25	5.25–5.30	Stable