Despite bananas being a globally traded staple, the balance of power among key suppliers is shifting dramatically—especially in Japan, where Vietnamese bananas are rapidly making gains. Once a niche player, Vietnam has boosted its banana exports to Japan by nearly 14 times in just five years, commanded by aggressive pricing, sustained quality, and widening trade advantages. The main engine behind this surge: Vietnamese bananas are now retailing up to 10% cheaper than their Philippine rivals, long considered the region’s anchor supplier. Japanese imports of Vietnamese bananas reached 33,000 tones in 2024, with July alone seeing shipments to Tokyo more than double year-on-year.
With Philippine market share eroding (down from 90% in early 2010s to 75% in 2024) and Ecuador holding steady, Vietnam has rapidly seized the number three spot, riding tariff reductions under the CPTPP and stable, disease-free output. As Japan’s retail sector gets savvier and more price-sensitive, Vietnam’s upward trajectory seems far from over—especially as Japanese tariffs drop further (set at 5.4% now and zero by 2028), while Philippine bananas remain subject to duties as high as 18% during peak seasons. With major buyers keen on security of supply, Vietnam’s contract pipeline is expected to keep rising. If production pace holds, the country may surpass 50,000 tonnes in annual shipments to Japan within the next five years.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Banana dried chips
Chips, whole
FOB 3.53 €/kg
(from VN)
Banana dried chips
Chips, whole
FCA 2.79 €/kg
(from NL)
Banana dried chips
Chips, broken
FCA 1.77 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices: Key Market Listings and Sentiment
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Organic | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banana dried chips | Vietnam | Hanoi, VN | Chips, whole | No | 3.53 | 3.53 | 2025-08-07 | Stable |
| Banana dried chips | Philippines | Dordrecht, NL | Chips, whole | Yes | 2.82 | 2.82 | 2025-08-07 | Stable |
| Banana dried chips | Philippines | Dordrecht, NL | Chips, broken | No | 1.80 | 1.80 | 2025-08-07 | Stable |
| Banana dried chips | Philippines | Dordrecht, NL | Chips, whole | No | 2.34 | 2.34 | 2025-08-07 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Dynamics and Drivers
- Vietnam: 2024 shipments to Japan surged nearly 14-fold (to 33,000 tonnes) versus 2019; market share jumped from 0.2% to 3.2%. Key factors: stable disease control, rising production, and aggressive pricing.
- Philippines: Still the largest supplier to Japan (75% share), but share is slipping due to disease pressures (Fusarium wilt) and higher production costs.
- Ecuador: Holds second place, providing year-round supply diversity and price stability.
📊 Fundamentals: Quality, Tariffs, and Trade Stats
- Retail Prices (Japan): Vietnamese bananas sell for USD 1.30–1.45 per kg; Philippine bananas for USD 1.45–1.60 (season/variety dependent).
- Tariffs (Japan): Vietnamese bananas: 5.4%, phasing out to 0% by 2028. Philippine bananas: 8–18%, depending on season.
- Disease & Supply Chain: Vietnam’s young plantations face fewer disease risks (notably Fusarium wilt).
- Japanese Demand: Remains stable; growth shifting towards price-sensitive consumers seeking quality alternatives.
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
- Vietnam (Northern Delta, Central Highlands): Recent weather data indicates a mix of regular monsoon rains with a short dry spell forecasted late August—beneficial for fruit ripening, no major storm threats currently reported.
- Philippines (Davao, Bukidnon): Intermittent heavy rains but no critical flooding, watch for potential typhoon systems developing in September.
Weather Impact Analysis: Mild-to-moderate precipitation in Vietnam should favor continued steady quality and volume, while Philippine banana areas may see logistics delays if tropical storms intensify in coming weeks.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Snapshot
| Country | Export Volume to Japan (2024, tonnes) | Market Share (%) | Inventory/Supply Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines | ~780,000 | 75% | High disease risk, some supply disruption |
| Ecuador | ~180,000 | 17.5% | Stable output |
| Vietnam | 33,000 | 3.2% | Rapid growth, tariff advantage |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For Importers: Consider diversifying sourcing toward Vietnam for competitive pricing, stable quality, and improving logistics.
- For Retailers: Highlight price/value differentiation in consumer promotions—Vietnamese bananas are increasingly accepted and recognized.
- For Producers/Exporters (Vietnam): Expand certified disease management and maintain consistent volume to further lock in long-term contracts.
- For Philippine/Ecuadorian suppliers: Redouble investment in disease resilience and supply chain stability to defend market share.
📉 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)
| Market/Exchange | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi, VN (FOB) | Banana dried chips, whole | 3.53 | 3.50–3.55 | Stable–Slight Up |
| Dordrecht, NL (FCA) | Banana dried chips, whole (PH, organic) | 2.82 | 2.80–2.85 | Stable |
| Dordrecht, NL (FCA) | Banana dried chips, broken (PH, non-orig) | 1.80 | 1.78–1.82 | Stable |