The ajwain (carom seed) market is experiencing a notable upswing in Gujarat’s Saurashtra region, with prices firming over the past week on account of reduced arrivals and continued robust demand from both domestic traders and overseas buyers. Key markets such as Rajkot, Gondal, and neighboring areas have reported significant gains, with high- and medium-quality ajwain lots fetching higher prices than in previous weeks.
This tightening in the market is closely related to constrained supplies—daily market arrivals in the region remain modest at 200–400 bags—while the sowing season has concluded without an immediate expectation of surplus crops. Export demand, particularly from the Middle East and Southeast Asia, adds a firm undercurrent, even as domestic processing units in India keep procurement steady. Given the interplay of these factors, industry analysts suggest the market is likely to retain its bullish tone in the short term, barring a sudden uptick in arrivals. For both spice processors and traders, the current scenario underscores a period of heightened activity and competition for quality lots.
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📈 Prices
Market/Location | Grade/Type | Price Range (USD/100kg) | Latest FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rajkot, Gondal (Saurashtra) | High Quality | $39.50 – $42.90 | 3.48 🌐 | -0.02 | Firm/Bullish |
Jamnagar/Surendranagar | Premium | $41.50 – $43.10 | — | — | Firm |
Rajkot, Gondal (Saurashtra) | Medium Quality | $36.15 – $39.00 | — | — | Steady |
New Delhi (FOB) | Powder, Grade B | — | 3.82 🌐 | -0.02 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: Daily inflow in Saurashtra remains low at 200–400 bags, tightening supply.
- Domestic Demand: Steady; processors actively purchasing high-quality lots.
- Export Interest: Middle East and Southeast Asia purchasers provide a supportive demand base.
- Key Production Areas: Prices stable in Jamnagar and Surendranagar, mirroring central Saurashtra.
📊 Fundamentals
- Acreage: Sowing season concluded; acreage appears similar to last year, with average yields expected due to moderate weather conditions.
- Stocks: Limited on-farm and mandi stocks as old crop is nearly exhausted.
- Speculators: Increased buying in local mandis seen as holding inventory opportunities rise with price upside expectations.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Yield Implications
- Weather: Recent weeks have seen clear, mild conditions in Saurashtra & adjoining ajwain belts, with minimal excess rainfall; no active weather threats reported.
- Implications: Stable weather supports crop quality for this season. If pre-monsoon showers appear, arrivals could be delayed, potentially sustaining current price strength.
🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison
Country | 2024 Production (est. tons) | 2024/2023 YoY Change | Stock Situation |
---|---|---|---|
India (Gujarat, Rajasthan) | ~27,000 | +2% | Stocks low, arrivals gradual |
Iran | ~2,000 | Stable | Steady |
Turkey, Others | ~1,000 | Stable | Limited |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Market likely to remain bullish in the near term as supply remains tight and sowing is complete.
- Exporters should secure contracts early as international inquiries increase, especially from the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
- Spice processors may benefit from buying on dips, but significant price declines are unlikely barring large arrivals.
- Monitor for any unexpected weather events that could affect late-season arrivals or crop quality.
- Speculators could consider moderate accumulation given positive fundamentals and price trends.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
Market | Quality | Forecast Price (USD/100kg) | Forecast Direction |
---|---|---|---|
Rajkot, Gondal | High Quality | 41.80 – 43.30 | ↑ Slightly Up |
Jamnagar, Surendranagar | Premium | 42.00 – 43.50 | ↑ Steady/Firm |
New Delhi (FOB) | Seed, grade – A | 3.48 – 3.52 (EUR/kg) | →/↑ Flat to Firm |