The global cumin market is navigating a period of stagnation despite several weeks of limited arrivals in major Indian markets like Unna. Typically, restricted supply would set the stage for price gains; however, ongoing weak demand both domestically and from key export destinations has prevented any significant upward momentum. Market sentiment is largely shaped by tepid export activity, especially from major buyers such as China, who continue to display limited interest. This cautious approach from international buyers—compounded by fierce competition from suppliers in Syria and Turkey, whose cumin commands lower prices—has sharply curtailed India’s usual export advantage.
Domestically, trade activity remains muted, with stockists and wholesalers avoiding bulk procurement in anticipation of further price corrections. Spot market indications and subdued wholesale prices underscore the lack of robust local demand, while global production, notably in Syria and Turkey, remains stable, assuring a steady flow of supply into world markets. While current FOB export prices for Indian cumin hover near $4,448.59 per metric ton and local arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan remain modest (at around 6,000–8,000 bags daily), the sentiment remains cautiously bearish. Unless demand improves in the coming weeks, particularly from international markets or driven by the upcoming festive season, there is little scope for a pronounced price recovery in the near term.
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Cumin seeds
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FOB 2.37 €/kg
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📈 Latest Prices & Market Sentiment
| Origin | Product | Grade | Purity | Type | Delivery (Incoterm) | Location | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | Cumin seeds | A | 99% | – | FOB | New Delhi | 2.37 | 2.42 | -0.05 | 2025-08-09 | Weak |
| IN | Cumin seeds | A | 98% | – | FOB | New Delhi | 2.22 | 2.27 | -0.05 | 2025-08-09 | Sluggish |
| IN | Cumin seeds | – | 99% | – | FOB | New Delhi | 2.38 | 2.43 | -0.05 | 2025-08-09 | Weak |
| IN | Cumin seeds | – | 98% | – | FOB | Gujarat – Unjha | 2.37 | 2.42 | -0.05 | 2025-08-09 | Sluggish |
| SY | Cumin seed | – | – | – | FCA | Dordrecht | 4.15 | 4.15 | 0.00 | 2025-08-08 | Stable |
| IR | Cumin seeds | green, premium | – | – | FOB | Tehran | 5.73 | 5.67 | +0.06 | 2025-07-23 | Firm |
| EG | Cumin seeds | – | 99.9% | – | FOB | Kairo | 4.90 | 4.93 | -0.03 | 2025-08-08 | Soft |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Sluggish Export Demand: China and other major buyers remain absent or cautious, directly impacting trade flows.
- Limited Bulk Buying: Domestic traders and stockists prefer hand-to-mouth procurement, awaiting lower prices.
- Global Competition: India faces reduced global competitiveness due to lower prices from Syria and Turkey.
- Steady Global Supply: Normal production in Syria, Turkey, and adequate Indian arrivals (6,000–8,000 bags daily) cap price upside.
📊 Fundamentals
- Current Indian Export Price: $4,448.59 per metric ton
- Average Domestic Market Price (India): $19.26/quintal (≈ €1.83/kg)
- Unna Mandi Price Range: $45.82–$46.81 per 20 kg
- Export Deals: $2.40–$2.70/20 kg below last rates
- Global Production: Normal in Syria, Turkey; stable in India
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Gujarat & Rajasthan (India): Monsoon rains have been normal to slightly above normal, aiding soil moisture, but scattered showers could delay harvest and reduce grade quality in isolated pockets.
- Syria/Turkey: Favorable spring and early summer weather have supported stable production levels and good crop quality.
Weather Impact: No major supply shocks expected; weather conditions are supportive for both Indian and key global suppliers.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Production (2024E, mt) | Stock Level (2024E, mt) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~270,000 | Ample | Stable/Weak |
| Syria | ~30,000 | Normal | Stable |
| Turkey | ~22,000 | Normal | Stable |
| Iran | ~14,000 | Limited | Stable/Firm |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- ☑️ Domestic consumers may monitor for short-term price dips to cover needs ahead of festival-related demand spikes.
- 🚫 Exporters should remain cautious—Indian cumin is less competitive versus Syrian and Turkish offerings on price.
- ✅ Stockists may consider gradual accumulation if spot prices drop further, especially if weather or logistics disrupt arrivals.
- ⚠️ Watch for signals of increased export demand; any rebound by China or Middle East buyers could lend short-term support.
- 📉 No significant price recovery anticipated without visible uptick in international or festival demand.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg)
| Date | Delhi (Grade A, 99%) | Gujarat (98%) | Export (India FOB) | Syria FOB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.35–2.38 | 2.16–2.22 | 2.36–2.41 | 4.13–4.17 |
| Day 2 | 2.33–2.37 | 2.14–2.21 | 2.35–2.40 | 4.12–4.16 |
| Day 3 | 2.32–2.36 | 2.13–2.20 | 2.34–2.39 | 4.11–4.15 |
Prices likely to remain under moderate pressure unless a clear driver for demand emerges.
