This season marks a historic turning point for the global almond market, with Australia emerging as a dominant force thanks to surging demand from China, India, and Turkiye. The latest figures reveal that Australian almond exports are at record highs, bolstered by robust shipments—India’s imports are up 50% and Turkiye’s by 57% compared to early 2024. Notably, China alone now absorbs half of all exports (kernel weight equivalent), underlining the profound shift in regional trade flows. Much of Australia’s competitive edge stems from ongoing US-China tariff disputes, which have led Chinese buyers to favor Australian product, securing Australia an unprecedented 70% market share at the China Tree Nut Conference. Meanwhile, high production quality, efficient logistics, and favorable market access reinforce Australia’s position.
However, the sector faces mounting uncertainties. Continuing geopolitical tensions and potential tariff adjustments could alter trading relationships at short notice, while global macroeconomic volatility influences demand sentiment and currency values. As traders and processors navigate volatile market conditions, staying alert to evolving fundamentals and weather patterns—especially in top almond-growing regions—is paramount. The combination of favorable Australian exports and uncertain long-term dynamics is setting the stage for a potentially turbulent period ahead.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.78 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.72 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.38 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices: Recent Almond Market Snapshot
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds kernels | US | Washington D.C. | Carmel, SSR, 18/20 | FAS | 6.78 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Almonds kernels | US | Washington D.C. | Carmel, SSR 20/22 | FAS | 6.72 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Almonds kernels (Organic) | US | Washington D.C. | Natural, 27/30, Nonpareil SSR | FOB | 9.38 | 0.00 | Firm |
| Almond kernels | ES | Madrid | Marcona, 12/14 | FOB | 6.71 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Almond kernels | IR | Tehran | Mamra, Grade A | FOB | 11.18 | +0.23 | Bullish |
| Almonds (Inshell) | IR | Tehran | Sangi | FOB | 1.88 | +0.06 | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Export Growth: Australian exports to India (+50%) and Turkiye (+57%) outpaced previous seasons, with China accounting for 50% of sales.
- Tariff Impacts: Chinese punitive tariffs on US almonds have led to an Australian market share of over 70% in China.
- Quality & Access: High production quality and reliable market access keep Australia competitive globally.
- US Market Hesitancy: Uncertainty around future US tariff policy encourages buyers to diversify toward Australian supply.
- Speculative Positioning: Flat to firm pricing in premium grades hints at moderate speculative interest, especially in organic and specialty categories.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Data
- Global Production (2024/25 est.):
- USA: 1.30 million MT (declining trend due to drought and acreage reduction)
- Australia: 185,000 MT (expansion, driven by new plantings and high yields)
- Spain: 65,000 MT (steady, weather-dependent)
- Iran: 160,000 MT (stable, some weather risk)
- Global Ending Stocks (est.):
- USA: 350,000 MT
- Australia: 30,000 MT
- Spain: 15,000 MT
- Major Importers: China, India, Turkiye, EU, Middle East
☀️ Weather Outlook
- California (US): Forecasts indicate continued dry and hot weather, with some irrigation constraints persisting. Expected to stress yields, particularly on non-irrigated acreage.
- Australia: Mild winter weather and adequate rainfall have supported strong bud development, pointing to above-trend yields barring late frost or heatwaves.
- Spain & Iran: Variable conditions, with Spain facing intermittent drought risk. Iran reports near-normal precipitation but some regions show heat stress potential.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Production (2024/25, MT) | Ending Stocks (MT) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 1,300,000 | 350,000 | ↓ |
| Australia | 185,000 | 30,000 | ↑ |
| Spain | 65,000 | 15,000 | → |
| Iran | 160,000 | n/a | → |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor ongoing US-China trade policy shifts—tariff resolution could rapidly change competitive positioning.
- Track Australian export permit updates and shipment data for early indicators of market tightness.
- Keep an eye on California water/irrigation news and its effect on US supplies into Q4 2025.
- Organic and premium grades commanding higher prices; buyers should secure forward contracts where margins justify.
- Short-term, market sentiment is neutral to bullish for Iranian and premium US origin almonds, with steady Australian pricing.
🗓️ 3-Day Price Forecast
| Exchange/Origin | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Price (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (Washington D.C.) | Carmel SSR 18/20 | 6.78 | 6.75 – 6.80 | Neutral |
| US (Washington D.C.) | Organic Nonpareil SSR 27/30 | 9.38 | 9.38 – 9.45 | Firm |
| Iran (Tehran) | Mamra, Grade A | 11.18 | 11.20 – 11.30 | Bullish |
| Spain (Madrid) | Marcona, 14/16 | 8.30 | 8.30 | Neutral |
