The global pine nuts market is experiencing a robust expansion phase, buoyed by its nutritional excellence, culinary versatility, and increasing attention in both health-driven and gourmet food sectors. From 2024 to 2025, the market is projected to rise from $3.3 billion to $3.56 billion, delivering a notable compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0%. Long-term prospects look equally promising, targeting $4.77 billion by 2029 at a CAGR of 7.6%. This sustained growth is powered by a surge in plant-based dietary preferences, consumer demand for nutrient-rich snacks, and the premium placed on natural, minimally processed food ingredients. Recent years have seen expanded agricultural production, enhanced trade flows, and technological improvements in food preservation, all supporting this upward trajectory. Notably, emerging economies are contributing stronger consumption, and branding strategies are evolving around sustainability, health, and innovative packaging.
Hottest trends include: a sharper focus on ethical sourcing, diversification into specialty products like roasted or flavored pine nuts, and growth in food processing applications. Furthermore, pine nuts’ unique cultural and religious significance continues to boost seasonal consumption. However, volatility in raw material supply and climatic uncertainties in key growing regions like China and the Mediterranean remain watchpoints for traders and processors.
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Pine nuts
1200
FOB 15.50 €/kg
(from CN)
Pine nuts
950
FOB 16.10 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Grade | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 1200 | Dalian | FOB | 15.50 | 15.55 | -0.05 | 2025-08-08 | Neutral/Bearish |
| China | 950 | Dalian | FOB | 16.10 | 16.15 | -0.05 | 2025-08-08 | Neutral/Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Production: Major global producers include China, Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, and Mediterranean countries (notably Italy and Turkey). China remains the pivotal player, accounting for most export volumes.
- Consumption: Key importing regions are the EU, United States, Middle East, and rapidly emerging Asian markets.
- Trade Expansion: International logistics improvements and free trade agreements have fostered broader market access, especially in processed and packaged pine nut products.
- Seasonal Demand: Festive and cultural uses augment consumption in Q4 each year, with spikes noted during religious holidays.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Market Value: $3.3bn in 2024 ➜ $3.56bn estimated for 2025 (up 8%, historical CAGR)
- Growth Expectations: Projected $4.77bn by 2029 (CAGR 7.6%, 2025-2029)
- Key Drivers: Plant-based eating, gourmet trends, sustainable packaging, expansion in emerging economies
- Challenges: Raw material price volatility, weather-driven yield risks, and concerns around traceability/ethical sourcing.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- China: Dalian and surrounding regions have experienced average rainfall and moderate temperatures during the 2025 growing season. No major weather shocks reported; favorable conditions on average for yield stability.
- Mediterranean: Slightly below-average rainfall during late spring may curb marginal yields in Italy and Spain, but no extreme drought events have been recorded this season.
- Russia, Korea: Stable weather reported, supporting regular harvest expectations.
Impact: Near-term supply is secure, but any early frosts or unexpected monsoons in Asia would warrant close monitoring for potential disruptions.
🌐 Global Production and Stocks
| Country | 2024 Production (est. MT) | 2025 Forecast (MT) | Major Export/Import Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | ~40,000 | ~41,500 | Export |
| Russia | ~17,000 | ~17,200 | Export |
| Pakistan | ~3,500 | ~3,600 | Export |
| Italy | ~2,200 | ~2,100 | Export/Import |
| Turkey | ~900 | ~950 | Export |
| EU (Import) | – | – | Import |
| USA (Import) | – | – | Import |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 💡 Stable supply, soft demand: Current FOB prices from Dalian show slight downward pressure on both grades after a recent multi-year rally.
- 🛒 Buyers: Consider gradual spot purchases through Q3/Q4 to hedge against possible late-season demand spikes from religious/cultural uses.
- ⏳ Sellers: Maintain flexible contract terms; monitor weather in Q4 for any late volatility risk.
- 🌱 Investors: Favor companies embracing sustainable sourcing, traceability, and value-added processing (e.g., flavored or blended pine nuts).
- 🏷️ Processors: Explore new packaging options and supply diversification to offset potential trade disruptions.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB Dalian, EUR/kg)
| Date | 1200 Grade | 950 Grade | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | 15.48 | 16.08 | Bearish |
| 2025-08-10 | 15.50 | 16.09 | Stable |
| 2025-08-11 | 15.52 | 16.10 | Stable |
Note: Continue monitoring weather in China and Mediterranean regions for signs of harvest disruptions. Watch for any regulatory or logistical changes impacting trade in Q4.