Rice Market Faces Tightening Supply Amid Adverse Weather, India’s Export Edge Builds

The global rice market is at a pivotal juncture as we approach the 2025–26 marketing season. Recent forecasts by the USDA indicate a looming reduction in world rice production, attributed largely to shifting climatic patterns across vital producing regions such as Southeast Asia. This downward revision in output threatens to tighten the supply-demand balance, exerting upward pressure on international prices. Notably, with the removal of recent export barriers, India is positioned to further solidify its status as the world’s leading rice exporter, leveraging robust domestic output and cost competitiveness. Exporters worldwide are carefully monitoring these variables as India’s stable production is increasingly critical to cushioning the anticipated global shortfall.

Trader sentiment has grown cautious: while demand remains healthy in Africa and the Middle East, some Asian importers are scaling back as local harvest prospects improve. Yet, the combination of supply constraints and sticky global import requirements are likely to support solid price levels into the new season. For market participants, strategic decision-making will hinge on timely updates from both weather outlooks and international policy shifts. Below, we detail the latest prices, fundamentals, and provide a comprehensive outlook for rice producers, exporters, and buyers facing a fast-evolving market landscape.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery (FOB)	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
All Golden, Sella	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.05	-0.01	Steady – Marginally Softer
All Steam, PR11	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.56	-0.01	Stable
All Isteam, Sharbati	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.71	-0.01	Stable
1121 Steam	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.97	-0.01	Firm
1509 Steam	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.91	-0.01	Supported
White Sella, 1121 Creamy	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.89	-0.01	Firm
White, Non Basmati (Organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.61	-0.01	Tight Market
White, Basmati (Organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.91	-0.01	Tight Market
Red	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	0.91	-0.01	Supported
Paper Dried	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	1.97	-0.01	Stable
Long, White, 5%	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	0.62	-0.01	Steady
Jasmine	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	0.64	-0.01	Steady
Japonica	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	0.74	-0.01	Steady
Homali	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	0.79	-0.01	Steady
White Glutinous	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	0.72	-0.01	Supported
Calrose	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	0.82	-0.01	Stable
Black	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	1.21	-0.01	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Projects Global Output Decline: World rice output in 2025–26 expected to fall due to adverse weather, especially in Southeast Asia. India’s stable output helps limit the global deficit but cannot fully offset losses elsewhere.
• India’s Export Dominance: Lifting of export restrictions allows India to consolidate its position as the largest rice supplier, with demand buoyed by competitive pricing and consistent quality.
• Trade Dynamics: Global rice trade forecast at 52.8 million tonnes, with demand steady in Africa and Middle East, but some Asian buyers reducing imports thanks to stronger local crops.
• Firm Prices Supported by Tight Supply: International prices (~$530/tonne, USDA) are likely to remain firm as reduced crops curtail global availability.

📊 Fundamentals & Comparison to Last Report

• Shift from Previous Season: The last rice market report highlighted elevated production and surpluses in Southeast Asia, underpinning softer market conditions. The current outlook reverses this trend, with tightening supply and firmer prices signaled.
• Inventories and Speculative Positioning: Lower inventories and heightened trade interest are noted, though India’s stabilizing role prevents more extreme rallies. Speculators watch weather risks keenly.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Southeast Asia: Ongoing drought and excessive heat in parts of Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia are curbing yield prospects for both main and off-season rice crops. Short-term precipitation is below normal, especially near the Mekong Delta, raising further concerns about production.
• India: The monsoon season has been largely normal in major growing belts with only isolated deficits, supporting the outlook for consistent Indian paddy output.
• Africa/Middle East: Key import regions remain unaffected by extreme weather for now, though any outlook shift in South Asian supply could quickly impact local prices.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Overview

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	2025/26 Forecast (Mt)	Major Trend
India	127	127	Stable, strong exports
China	147	145	Slight drop, strong domestic demand
Vietnam	43	41	Decline, weather risk
Thailand	29	28	Lower, drought
Pakistan	7.7	7.5	Marginally lower
Africa (Total)	24	24	Steady, high import needs

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Sellers: Consider securing forward contracts as prices are expected to remain elevated amid tight global supply.
• Exporters: India should exploit favorable export conditions and target Africa/Middle Eastern demand hubs; Thai and Vietnamese exporters should be cautious with new crop availability and manage risk on volumes.
• Importers: Lock in requirements early; diversify procurement strategies to hedge against further potential supply shocks due to weather in Southeast Asia.
• Speculators: Monitor short-term weather fluctuations, as any improvement or deterioration may trigger quick market moves.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Exchange/City	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Trend	Comment
India	New Delhi (All Golden, Sella)	1.05	Firm	Support from steady exports & global tightness
Vietnam	Hanoi (Long, White, 5%)	0.62	Slightly Up	Concerns over dry weather may push prices higher
Global Export	Benchmark Export	0.91	Stable to Firm	Global supply concerns underpin outlook