Momentum and Margins: Vietnam Drives Global Cinnamon Market Forward

Vietnam’s cinnamon sector continues to cement its global dominance amid robust export momentum and evolving industry challenges. From January to July 2025, Vietnamese cinnamon exports soared nearly 35% by volume year-on-year, signaling strong international demand underpinned by expanding applications in foods, wellness, and functional products. Notably, in July alone, Vietnam exported over 10,300 tons valued at $26.2 million, growing both revenue and market footprint. India remains Vietnam’s top buyer, but access to a wide range of markets—including the U.S., EU, and Middle East—offers diversified growth. Though Vietnam consolidates its status as the third-largest global producer and the world’s top exporter, a heavy reliance on raw cinnamon exports constrains value creation compared to competitors like Sri Lanka and Indonesia, who add value through processing.
Regulatory tightening around traceability and certifications is prompting a strategic pivot in the industry, with companies moving to secure organic standards and international compliance. The outlook for higher export earnings hinges on both continued production strength and progress in premiumization. As the market enters the latter part of the export year, bullish fundamentals and positive price trends suggest resilient upside potential—contingent, however, on ongoing innovation and supply chain upgrades.

📈 Cinnamon Market Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Organic	Terms	Latest Price (€/kg)	Prev. Price (€/kg)	Weekly Chg (%)	Sentiment
Ceylon cinnamon	Sticks	India	New Delhi	✓	FOB	7.65	7.60	+0.66%	Bullish
Ceylon cinnamon	Powder	India	New Delhi	✓	FOB	7.10	7.05	+0.71%	Firm
Cinnamon	Cassia Sticks	India	New Delhi	✓	FOB	7.20	7.15	+0.70%	Bullish
Cinnamon	Cassia Split	Vietnam	Hanoi	✗	FOB	2.62	2.58	+1.55%	Firm
Cinnamon	Cassia Powder	India	New Delhi	✓	FOB	4.85	4.80	+1.04%	Slightly Bullish
Cinnamon	Cassia Cigarette	Vietnam	Hanoi	✗	FOB	4.97	4.92	+1.02%	Firm
Cinnamon	Cassia Broken	Vietnam	Hanoi	✗	FOB	2.05	2.00	+2.50%	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Robust Vietnamese Exports: Exports surged by 34.9% in volume and 21.6% in value (Jan-Jul), establishing Vietnam as the global leader in cinnamon exports.
• Major Markets: India, China, Bangladesh, U.S., EU, and Middle East are top buyers; India is the largest single market.
• End Use Expansion: Functional foods, cosmetics, and pharma drive new demand beyond traditional uses.
• Industry Structure: 180,000 ha under cultivation, mainly in mountainous north/central Vietnam.
• Processing Weakness: Predominantly raw exports; limited value addition compared to Indonesia/Sri Lanka.
• Compliance Pressures: Buyers demand traceability, organic and technical certifications, propelling industry upgrades.

📊 Fundamentals Comparison

Country	Production (approx. ‘000 tons/year)	Global Rank	Key Export Markets
Vietnam	≈ 45	3rd	India, China, U.S., EU, Middle East
Indonesia	≈ 90	1st	U.S., EU, Middle East
Sri Lanka	≈ 20	4th	Mexico, U.S., EU
China	≈ 38	2nd	Domestic, SE Asia
India	≈ 28	5th	Domestic, Middle East, EU

🌤️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Northern Vietnam: Forecasts indicate moderate rainfall and stable temperatures over the next week, supporting ongoing harvest and post-harvest activity. No significant weather threats reported.
• Indonesia & Sri Lanka: Monsoon activity expected to remain near-normal, with no major disruptions to cinnamon crops projected in primary growing zones.
• Short-term Impact: Favorable conditions sustain high output levels and steady quality in key producing regions.

📆 Trading Outlook & Price Forecast

• Bullish bias: Upward trend in Vietnamese and Indian cinnamon prices (+0.7% to +2.5% weekly) signals ongoing demand strength.
• Watch Processing Trends: Vietnam’s focus on more value-added and certified products may attract price premiums by year-end.
• Monitor Regulatory Shift: Enhanced certification/traceability will increase compliance costs for exporters, but boost market access and margins.
• Supply Watch: Monitor harvest progress in Vietnam’s northern regions and import behavior in India/EU for price signals.
• Actionable Play: Traders should consider long positions in certified, value-added cinnamon categories and hedge spot purchases amidst firming FOB offers from Vietnam and India.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product	Location	Current (€/kg)	Day 1 Forecast (€/kg)	Day 2 Forecast (€/kg)	Day 3 Forecast (€/kg)
Ceylon Cinnamon Sticks	New Delhi	7.65	7.69	7.73	7.76
Cassia Cinnamon Sticks	Hanoi	2.62	2.65	2.67	2.69
Cassia Cinnamon Powder	New Delhi	4.85	4.87	4.89	4.93