The global coffee market is currently gripped by a period of extraordinary volatility and rapid transformation. Prices for both Robusta and Arabica have surged to record highs across all major exchanges, fueled by tightening supplies, adverse weather in key origins, and robust international demand. Vietnam, the world’s leading Robusta exporter, has seen a paradoxical drop in export volumes but a dramatic rise in export value due to skyrocketing prices. Meanwhile, India is poised for a domestic consumption boom, with forecasted coffee demand expected to double over the next decade as young consumers shift their preferences, according to industry leaders.
CCL’s aggressive expansion and higher utilization of production facilities in India and Vietnam underscore this optimism. Simultaneously, Indian coffee growers are facing challenging weather, rising costs, and a steady shift toward premium varieties and branded products at home. Globally, the market is also being reshaped by new tariffs, regulatory changes, speculative trading, and shifting trade patterns. European importers are ramping up purchases—particularly from India—to hedge against regulatory changes and supply disruptions elsewhere. In this rapidly evolving landscape, coffee market stakeholders must monitor not only prices and weather patterns, but also evolving consumption trends and policy shifts. Below, we provide a deep dive into the latest prices, supply-demand fundamentals, weather outlook, and strategic recommendations for the days ahead.
📈 Prices
| Exchange | Product | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London ICE | Robusta (July 2025) | 5,291 USD/ton (~4,908 EUR/ton) | +3.2% | Bullish |
| New York ICE | Arabica (July 2025) | 8,560 USD/ton (~7,940 EUR/ton) | +2.7% | Bullish |
| Vietnam (Central Highlands) | Robusta (Spot) | 130,000 VND/kg (~5,100 USD/ton) | +4.1% | Very Bullish |
| India (Export Avg.) | All Coffee Types | 4.67 USD/kg (~4.33 EUR/kg) | +46% YoY (value) | Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: 2025/26 production forecast at 6 million 60-kg bags (~360,000 tonnes); domestic consumption projected at 1.4 million bags and rising fast due to youth-driven demand.
CCL projects 100% capacity utilization by FY29, reflecting strong domestic as well as export demand. - Vietnam: Exports Jan-Apr 2025 down 10% YoY to 663,000 tonnes, but value up 51% to $3.8 billion; average export price rises 67% YoY to $5,698/ton.
- Brazil: 31.9% YoY decline in green coffee exports in April 2025 as farmers withhold stock and weather delays the harvest.
- Global: Tight inventories prevail; global production growth is steady but can’t keep pace with surging consumption.
- European imports: Italy, Germany, and Spain are top buyers, with India’s exports to Europe hitting all-time highs.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA Reports: Indian production is forecast to decline slightly in 2025/26 due to weather, but India’s export value and volumes have both hit records in 2024–25 on higher prices and strong global demand.
- Inventories: Strategic stockholding by farmers (especially in Brazil and Vietnam) and slower delivery flows are supporting prices.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money is net long on both Robusta and Arabica futures, reflecting continued bullish sentiment.
- Acreage Shifts: India and Vietnam are both expanding processing and branding capacity to capture value inland.
- Tariffs/Trade: New tariffs in the US (26% on Indian instant coffee vs. 10% for Brazil/Ecuador) are shifting trade flows, with Indian exporters seeking new markets in Asia and the EU.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India: Erratic weather—dry spells followed by strong winds and excess rain—has delayed harvests and may trim yields. Monsoon forecasts remain positive, supporting crop prospects, but weather risks persist, especially for late Arabica harvests.
- Vietnam: Favorable rainfall so far supports bean fill, but any sudden dry turn could tighten Robusta supply further.
- Brazil: Intermittent dry weather with delayed harvests; risk of further production cuts if rains do not normalize.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (tonnes) | 2024/25 Exports (tonnes) | Major Importers (top 3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 3.2 million | 2.5 million | Germany, USA, Italy |
| Vietnam | 1.8 million | 1.5 million | Germany, Italy, Spain |
| India | 360,000 | 389,000 | Italy, Germany, Russia |
| Colombia | 880,000 | 780,000 | USA, Germany, Japan |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🌟 Producers: Consider selling with spot market strength but be aware of weather risks and input costs; premium and value-addition pays off in India’s expanding domestic market.
- 🚚 Buyers: Secure supplies now; stock levels are tight and further price increases are likely if weather risks materialize.
- 📊 Traders: Watch speculative flows and adjust hedges; monitor new US/EU tariffs and policy signals. Keep an eye on Indian consumption for signs of domestic demand pressure.
- 💡 Investors: The bullish structure and keen demand trends favor a long-bias, with short-term volatility around weather, currency, and policy events.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Region | Coffee Type | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London ICE | Robusta | 5,291 USD/ton (~4,908 EUR/ton) |
5,200–5,350 USD/ton (~4,825–4,965 EUR/ton) |
Bullish |
| New York ICE | Arabica | 8,560 USD/ton (~7,940 EUR/ton) |
8,400–8,700 USD/ton (~7,790–8,060 EUR/ton) |
Bullish |
| Vietnam (Spot) | Robusta | 130,000 VND/kg (~5,100 USD/ton) |
129,000–132,000 VND/kg (~5,060–5,175 USD/ton) |
Very Bullish |
| India (Export Avg.) | All | 4.67 USD/kg (~4.33 EUR/kg) |
4.70–4.80 USD/kg (~4.36–4.45 EUR/kg) |
Bullish |
