Chickpeas Market Faces Prolonged Weakness as Supply Outpaces Tepid Demand

The chickpeas market is currently grappling with continued downward pressure, reflective of broader supply-demand imbalances and a lack of significant recovery signals in both domestic and international arenas. Indian desi chickpea prices, a key driver of global sentiment, have declined notably over the past week. In New Delhi, wholesale market prices for mill-quality chickpeas slipped nearly $74 per metric ton to settle around $745 per metric ton – a level that is prompting bearish sentiment across major procurement centers. Despite arrivals from core production states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan showing a 10–12% reduction, the inflow has not been tight enough to offset already adequate pipeline stocks or trigger a buying spree. Traders and millers remain cautious, pointing to modest activity in the dal mill segment and sluggish retail consumption as factors limiting any price lift.

With subdued export activity as well, most stakeholders see the current weak trend persisting without a major external catalyst. Near-term stability is possible if local demand revives during the festive season, but the prospects for a robust recovery remain limited. Global price parity is evident when viewed alongside the latest FOB export prices in both India and Mexico, demonstrating a market still searching for a convincing driver on either side of the trade ledger.

📈 Prices & Market Snapshot

Origin	Product	Count / Size	Location	FOB Price (EUR/mt)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
India	Chickpeas dried	60-62, 8 mm	New Delhi	1.26	0.00	Bearish
India	Chickpeas dried	58-60, 9 mm	New Delhi	1.27	0.00	Bearish
India	Chickpeas dried	46-48, 10 mm	New Delhi	1.31	0.00	Bearish
India	Chickpeas dried	44-46, 11 mm	New Delhi	1.33	0.00	Bearish
India	Chickpeas dried	42-44, 12 mm	New Delhi	1.32	0.00	Bearish
Mexico	Chickpeas dried	75-80, 8 mm	Mexico City	1.20	0.00	Neutral
Mexico	Chickpeas dried	42-44, 12 mm	Mexico City	1.72	0.00	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Indian arrivals down 10–12% in key producing states; yet, overall supply remains ample.
• Dal mill and retail demand subdued; pipeline stocks and slow mill activity weigh on procurement.
• Exports nearly stagnant; domestic market relying heavily on local consumption trends.
• Without major festivals or export orders, upward momentum is hampered by oversupply.
• Traders anticipate stability only if festive demand picks up, else prices may remain rangebound.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison

• India remains the world’s largest chickpeas producer and consumer, crucially impacting global trade flows.
• Mexican chickpea prices show relative stability, offering a yardstick for global buyers and traders.
• Pipeline stocks in India appear comfortable, reducing urgency among buyers; global inventories are adequate.
• Comparatively, last month’s market report indicated a transient rally driven by short-term demand, which quickly faded due to prevailing fundamentals.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Current monsoon rainfall in Indian chickpea belts is near average, supporting healthy crop development.
• No major weather disruptions are forecast for the next week in the key regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, or Rajasthan.
• Mexican growing areas also report favorable weather, ensuring stable output prospects for upcoming harvests.
• Unless an unexpected dry spell or flood event emerges, crop yields are projected to remain robust, sustaining ample supply and capping prices in the near term.

🌏 Country Production & Stocks Overview

Country	2023/24 Production (est., million mt)	Stocks (million mt)	Import/Export Position
India	11.2	1.4	Major Exporter & Consumer
Mexico	1.8	0.4	Major Exporter
Australia	0.96	0.2	Exporter
Paksitan	0.56	0.1	Importer
EU	0.42	0.05	Importer

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Maintain a cautious, defensive trading stance given persistent weak demand and steady arrivals.
• Spot buying recommendations on select high-quality lots only during brief price corrections.
• Monitor festive demand triggers in India as potential short-lived opportunities for upward movement.
• Exporters advised to wait for firm overseas inquiries; domestic traders should avoid overcommitting stocks before clearer demand signals emerge.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Product	Current Price (EUR/mt)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
New Delhi	Chickpeas dried (60-62, 8 mm)	1.26	1.25–1.28	Bearish/Stable
New Delhi	Chickpeas dried (44-46, 11 mm)	1.33	1.31–1.34	Bearish
Mexico City	Chickpeas dried (75-80, 8 mm)	1.20	1.19–1.21	Stable/Neutral