The coconut oil market is in the grip of a historic price surge, sending ripples across global food and cosmetic industries. From Asian household kitchens to Western food manufacturers, the effects are deeply felt: coconut oil prices have nearly tripled in India over the past two years, and international benchmarks set new records. The immediate drivers are supply shocks due to erratic weather, aging plantations, and increased competition for coconuts in beverage sectors, while demand for coconut-based products—ranging from oil to desiccated flakes—remains strong worldwide. Large importers, such as the European Union, U.S., and China, continue to hunger for coconut-derived ingredients, even as exporters like Indonesia shift their focus to whole coconut shipments, complicating supply chains further.
Meanwhile, the premium for coconut oil over palm kernel oil has widened sharply, indicating fundamental shifts in global edible oil markets. Industry insiders suggest these trends may signal a new pricing normal, and cluster risks abound if substitutes’ prices rise in tandem. With global interest from trade bodies, growers, and policymakers, the world is watching for clues: Will the coconut market stabilize, or are we entering a new era of scarcity pricing and supply chain adaptation?
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Coconut dried
flakes
FOB 4.62 €/kg
(from VN)
Coconut dried
flakes
FCA 3.06 €/kg
(from NL)
Coconut dried
flakes
FCA 2.68 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Organic | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut dried (flakes) | VN | Hanoi (FOB) | Flakes | No | 4.62 | 0% | Firm |
| Coconut dried (flakes) | PH | Dordrecht (FCA) | Flakes | Yes | 3.06 | 0% | Firm |
| Coconut dried (flakes) | PH | Dordrecht (FCA) | Flakes | No | 2.68 | 0% | Steady |
| Coconut dried (desiccated) | ID | Dordrecht (FCA) | Desiccated | No | 1.96 | 0% | Steady |
| Coconut dried (desiccated, medium grade) | ID | Dordrecht (FCA) | Desiccated Medium | No | 1.93 | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Largest global consumer; retail prices up nearly 300% in two years, leading to increased substitution by sunflower and palm oils.
- Southeast Asia: Output flat at 3.67 million tons (2024–25), under pressure from adverse weather, pests, and earlier harvesting for coconut water.
- Indonesia: Shift from oil to whole coconut exports; coconut oil exports down 15% Jan–Jun 2025, while other coconut product exports up 58%.
- Global Trade: Strong demand in EU, US, China, Middle East for coconut derivatives (oil, copra, desiccated, milk and cream).
- Substitute Oils: Record $1,000/ton premium of coconut oil over palm kernel oil has boosted demand for, and possibly prices of, palm, soy, and sunflower oil.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production Constraints: Delayed replanting and aging trees limit future output. New plantings in India will take 4–5 years for yield, so no short-term relief.
- Inventory Trends: Global coconut oil stocks remain drawdown-heavy amid stable output; no significant rebound anticipated in 2025.
- Policy Interventions: India considers import duty relaxation; Indonesia mulls restricting raw coconut exports to protect local processors.
- Non-Food Demand: Cosmetics and personal care sectors hit hard, facing monthly price hikes due to lauric acid dependence.
⛈️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- India & Southeast Asia: Current El Niño phase intensifies risk of above-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Sumatra, and Southern Philippines. Drought and heat waves are likely to reduce yields through late 2025.
- Philippines: Typhoons and recurring droughts threaten the main harvest season; continued risk of pest outbreaks.
- Indonesia & Malaysia: Scattered rains have somewhat improved, but plantation recovery remains slow.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Tables
| Country | 2024–25 Production (mil tons) | Export Trend |
|---|---|---|
| India | ~0.55 | High domestic demand, low export |
| Indonesia | ~0.90 | Shift to whole coconut exports, coconut oil down |
| Philippines | ~1.50 | Main exporter, but volatility in output |
| Malaysia | ~0.20 | Stable–slightly declining |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📈 Bullish bias persists: Prices above $2,500/ton are the new normal for 2025. A significant decline below $2,000/ton is highly improbable in the short term.
- 🏭 Demand shift to substitutes expected, but global edible oil complex also firming up; risk of tightening across oilseeds sector.
- 📦 Buyers: Secure forward contracts and consider blending with alternative oils to hedge price risk.
- 🌱 Sellers/Farmers: Sustain investment in new plantings as elevated prices may persist for 2–4 years.
- 🔎 Watch policy moves (India/Indonesia) closely for sudden changes in import/export restrictions.
- 🌦️ Monitor climatic risks and typhoon season in Asia for further disruptions.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location / Exchange | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast (3 days) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (FOB) | Coconut dried flakes | 4.62 | Stable–Firm | Bullish |
| Dordrecht (FCA) | Coconut dried flakes (organic) | 3.06 | Stable | Bullish |
| Dordrecht (FCA) | Coconut dried flakes | 2.68 | Stable | Bullish |
| Dordrecht (FCA) | Coconut dried desiccated | 1.96 | Stable | Neutral |
