Kashmiri Apple Market: Soaring Arrivals Squeeze Prices and Margins

The Indian apple market, especially for Kashmiri varieties, is currently witnessing a dramatic decline in prices fueled by a surge in arrivals and a challenging market environment. This season’s bumper crop, with arrivals projected to reach between 750,000 and 1 million metric tons, has sharply increased supplies at a time when export restrictions are in place. As a result, wholesale and retail prices have dropped by nearly 20% within mere weeks. Premium American apples, once fetching $1.56–$1.68 per kg, are now trading at $1.20–$1.32, while Red Delicious and Scarlet Spur varieties are seeing similar reductions.

In Delhi’s key Azadpur mandi, top-quality fruit now sells at $1.20 per kg, with mid-grade produce offered as low as $0.84 per kg. For growers in Kashmir, the situation is doubly painful – production costs have risen with scant improvement in market returns, squeezing profit margins to the brink. Wholesale markets in Delhi, Mumbai, and the southern states all report price softness, and traders anticipate further downside as 200,000–300,000 metric tons are set to reach main markets in the coming weeks. Simultaneously, the dried apple segment in Europe has also seen a mild softening of prices for Chinese-origin dried apple cubes, though the contraction has been much smaller. As persistent supply overhang and the inadequacy of cold storage or export relief dominate expectations, farmers and traders alike are bracing for challenging weeks ahead.

📈 Apple Price Trends and Exchange Data

Market/Location	Product/Grade	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Delhi Azadpur Mandi	American (Premium)	$1.20 / kg	-20%	Bearish
Delhi Azadpur Mandi	Mid-Grade	$0.84–$0.96 / kg	-20%	Bearish
Pan-India Wholesale	Red Delicious/Scarlet Spur	$1.08–$1.20 / kg	-18%	Bearish
Europe (NL, Dried Cubes 10–12 mm)	Apple dried (CN origin)	€4.67 / kg	-1.1%	Soft
Europe (NL, Dried Cubes 8–10 mm)	Apple dried (CN origin)	€4.60 / kg	-1.0%	Soft
Europe (NL, Dried Cubes 5–7 mm)	Apple dried (CN origin)	€4.70 / kg	-1.1%	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Harvest Surge: 750,000–1 million mt Kashmiri apple crop expected (vs. 600,000–700,000 mt LY)
• Peak Arrivals: 200,000–300,000 mt to hit mandis in late August–September
• Export Restrictions: Ongoing limits on apple exports keep surplus in domestic market
• Consumption: Robust demand, especially for premium and early-season grades, but overwhelmed by volume
• Cost-Return Gap: Farmers cite soaring input costs versus weak market realization

📊 Fundamental Market Comparisons

Season	India Crop Size (mt)	Previous Year (mt)	Expected Peak Arrivals	Price Movement YoY
2024/25	750,000–1,000,000	600,000–700,000	200,000–300,000 (2–3 weeks)	-18% to -20%
Dried Cubes (EU)	–	–	Stable imports from CN	-1% to -1.1%

Export/Import Landscape

• India: Remains a net importer for premium apples, but extraordinary domestic crop pressure is subsuming imports for this season
• China: Biggest exporter; EU market for dried apples stable but margins under slight pressure

⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Jammu & Kashmir: Current weather is favorable for late-harvest fruit, with mild temperatures and adequate rainfall in the last fortnight. No major frost events forecasted in the next 3–5 days. Outlook supports good yield and quality for remaining crop.
• Himachal Pradesh: Variable cloud with scattered showers, supporting current maturation. No weather risk expected.
• Market Impact: Stable weather likely to support further arrivals—price recovery therefore will hinge on market absorption or policy changes, not weather disruption.

🪙 Trading & Market Outlook

• • Short-term pressure likely: With arrivals set to accelerate, further price softness is expected, especially for mid- and lower-grade fruit.
• • Premiums only for top quality: Traders should focus on premium or early picked apples, which are still capturing stronger prices.
• • Storage imperative: Producers may mitigate losses with cold storage or delay in marketing, pending any export relief policies.
• • Speculative positions: Limited upside for fresh apples; dried apple markets in Europe remain relatively stable but not immune to volume-driven price softening.

📆 Regional 3-Day Price Forecast

Market	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Trend
Delhi Azadpur (Premium)	$1.20 / kg	$1.18 / kg	$1.16 / kg	Softening
Delhi Azadpur (Mid-grade)	$0.90 / kg	$0.88 / kg	$0.86 / kg	Falling
Europe Dried Cubes (10–12 mm)	€4.67 / kg	€4.67 / kg	€4.65 / kg	Slight dip

• Monitor government updates for potential market interventions
• Evaluate inventory and storage decisions carefully in view of sustained weak pricing