Wheat Market Holds Steady: Low Volumes, Solid Mill Demand, Eyes on Procurement Plans

This week, the global wheat market continued its steady tone amid restrained trader participation and a cautious approach from farmers, who are maintaining a measured pace in their selling activities. In key Indian markets such as Indore and Gondal, average wheat prices stabilized between $0.45–$0.52 per kg, with premium lots achieving marginally higher returns. Gondal’s persistent demand kept prices near $0.47 per kg, reflecting consumer resilience despite subdued export inquiries.

Meanwhile, flour mills sustained local demand, providing underlying support against larger price corrections. Internally, all eyes remain trained on the Indian government’s upcoming procurement programs, which are expected to introduce fresh strategic direction for market participants. On the international front, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures closed at $0.21 per pound, a modest recovery that underscores the market’s search for fresh impetus as Indian export demand stays soft. The combination of mill-driven demand, tight spot supplies, and watchful government policies are setting the stage for the next movements in the wheat arena.

📈 Prices: Wheat Market Dashboard

Exchange/Origin	Product/Type	Price	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	Wheat, protein min. 11.50% (US)	$0.22/kg (≈$0.21/lb)	$0.22/kg	0%	Neutral/Firm
Euronext/Paris	Wheat, protein min. 11.00% (FR)	€0.28/kg	€0.28/kg	0%	Steady
Odesa (UA, FOB)	Wheat, protein min. 11.00%	€0.20/kg	€0.20/kg	0%	Stable
Indore (IN)	Physical, mixed	$0.45–0.52/kg	$0.45–0.52/kg	0%	Stable
Gondal (IN)	Physical, mixed	$0.47/kg	$0.47/kg	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand: What Is Driving the Market?

• India: Flour mill demand robust but Indian export activity muted. Domestic trader participation low, maintaining spot prices.
• Global: CBOT futures edge higher with light speculative buying. US and EU export competition intense, but buyers are price-sensitive.
• Inventory: Global wheat stocks remain at multi-year lows, with delayed harvests in parts of Argentina and Ukraine.
• Policy: India’s government wheat procurement plans under review; may affect market confidence and domestic supply.

📊 Fundamentals: Data Snapshot

• USDA’s latest report forecasts 2024/25 global wheat production at 795 Mt, slightly below last year due to yield concerns in the Black Sea and Argentina.
• Major exporters (US, EU, Russia, Ukraine) account for over 60% of global trade volume.
• Speculative funds have reduced short positions on CBOT, reflecting cautious optimism.

⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Areas

• US Midwest: Recent rains improving soil moisture; short-term outlook favors healthy crop development.
• EU/France: Variable rainfall—adequate in north, some dryness persists in southern key states. Risks for late grain fill if dry weather continues.
• Ukraine/Russia: Recovering from earlier dryness, but yield losses likely in some areas already impacted.
• India: Seasonal monsoon progressing normally; favorable for standing crops but localized flooding risks in parts of Uttar Pradesh.

🌐 Global Production and Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Prod. (Mt)	2024/25 Forecast (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)
US	49.0	50.4	17.8
EU	134.7	133.5	13.1
Russia	91.5	84.0	17.0
India	110.6	112.0	13.4
Ukraine	21.0	19.2	1.3

🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor India’s procurement policy updates for potential changes in domestic supply-demand balance.
• CBOT and Euronext prices expected to stay rangebound pending clear weather impacts and government actions.
• Mills and processors: Consider locking in spot contracts; global supply risks remain present.
• Physical traders: Anticipate further strength if export demand returns or weather affects Black Sea yields.
• Speculators: Early positioning on CBOT warrants caution given relatively neutral price action and modest fund flows.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Price Forecast	Trend
CBOT (US)	$0.21–0.22/lb	Firm
Euronext (Paris)	€0.28/kg	Stable
Indore (IN)	$0.45–0.52/kg	Steady
Odesa (UA, FOB)	€0.20/kg	Stable