Global Lentil Market Holds Steady Amidst Balanced Supply and Consistent Demand

The lentil market has exhibited notable resilience over the past week, with prices holding steady across major mandis and wholesale markets despite some volatility in arrivals. In areas such as Juwar-Bajari, Himatnagar, Bhandara, and Rajkot, traders have reported that moderate arrivals, consistent retail inquiries, and ongoing local demand have prevented significant price declines. Importantly, wholesale bids have largely hovered in the $41.50–$43.00 per 100 kg range, reflecting stability even as regional supply fluctuates.

Analysts indicate that while upcoming harvests in the months ahead might apply some downward pressure to prices, the current market tone is one of cautious stability, buoyed by firm retail demand and manageable stocks. This balance between supply-side factors and evolving end-user consumption is likely to keep price action subdued in the short term. Market participants are closely watching weather developments in key growing regions and export countries, as these could impact new crop volumes and ultimately influence price direction in the coming quarter.

📈 Prices & Market Snapshot

Location	Type	Organic	Origin	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
Ottawa	Red football	No	CA	2.48	2.48	2025-08-14	Stable
Ottawa	Laird, Green	No	CA	1.66	1.66	2025-08-14	Stable
Ottawa	Eston Green	No	CA	1.53	1.53	2025-08-14	Stable
Beijing	Small, Green	Yes	CN	1.31	1.29	2025-08-13	Slightly Bullish
Beijing	Small, Green	No	CN	1.23	1.21	2025-08-13	Slightly Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India: Key mandis such as Himatnagar, Bhandara, and Rajkot recorded moderate daily arrivals (100–150 quintals), meeting stable domestic demand and containing price swings.
• Canada: Remains the largest supplier globally, with FOB prices holding steady on minimal export pressure. Harvest outlook will be critical in the coming weeks.
• China: Slight uptick in organic and conventional small green lentil prices, reflecting more active local buying or reduced supply.
• Global Demand: Consumption remains robust in South Asia and North Africa, with little evidence of demand destruction despite firm prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Wholesale bids in India consistently in the $41.50–$43.00 range per 100 kg; retail slightly higher due to ongoing consumer demand support.
• End-users continue to source steadily, limiting speculative selling.
• Current stocks deemed sufficient for immediate needs but closely tied to pace of new arrivals.
• Upcoming harvests—especially from Canada and India—pose potential for increased supply and softer prices if yields are above trend.
• Currency fluctuations (especially CAD/EUR), freight rates, and trade policy remain factors to monitor for export competitiveness.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Regional Impact

• Western Canada (Saskatchewan, Alberta): Current weather patterns show mostly favorable conditions, but scattered late-summer storms could impact final lentil yields. No major drought reported as of latest updates.
• India: Central and northern producing belts have received adequate monsoon rains so far, supporting standing lentil crops and aiding newly sown acreage. Vigilance remains warranted for late monsoon variability.
• China: No significant weather disruptions affecting main producing areas. Slightly higher prices may reflect local supply tightness rather than weather adversity.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023 Production (k tons)	2024 Outlook (k tons)	Stocks (k tons)
Canada	2,900	3,000*	400
India	1,250	1,300*	200
Australia	800	830*	80
Turkey	500	510*	40
China	150	155*	20

*2024 estimates based on current weather and sowing data; subject to revision with harvest progress.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Lentil prices are likely to remain steady to moderately weaker in the next two weeks as arrivals from harvests increase, but no sharp correction is projected without a supply shock.
• End-users and processors should consider forward purchasing to manage supply risk, as inventory levels are still closely watched.
• Exporters should monitor currency and freight trends, especially for Canada-to-South Asia flows, to maximize competitiveness on FOB basis.
• Speculative positioning remains muted, with physical market players providing most of the liquidity.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Spot Price (EUR/kg)	Direction	Sentiment
Ottawa (FOB, Red football)	2.48	→	Stable
Ottawa (FOB, Laird Green)	1.66	→	Stable
Ottawa (FOB, Eston Green)	1.53	→	Stable
Beijing (FOB, Small Green, organic)	1.31	↑	Slightly Bullish
Beijing (FOB, Small Green, non-organic)	1.23	↑	Slightly Bullish