Corn Market Update: Crop Stress Sends Ripples Through Global Prices

The corn market is entering a critical phase as the 2025 growing season faces mounting challenges. According to the latest USDA report, U.S. corn crop conditions have deteriorated for the second consecutive week, now lagging behind the historical five-year average. As of August 18, only 71% of the U.S. crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition, down one point from last week and three points below the five-year benchmark. Key production states saw a notable three-percentage-point decline in quality, attributed mainly to persistent weather-related stress—namely, inconsistent rainfall and heat waves. The share of the crop rated fair has climbed to 21%, while 8% is now in poor-to-very-poor condition.

These shifting fundamentals come at a crucial time, with analysts warning that price volatility could increase as harvesting approaches. Weather forecasts suggest that continued heat and sparse precipitation across the Midwest could further impact yields, especially for fields already showing developmental delays—now at 32% of the acreage. Market participants should closely monitor weather models and the upcoming USDA updates for signals on potential yield shortfalls or recovery scenarios. On the global front, stable to mildly higher prices in Europe and South America reflect both the resilience of regional production and an undercurrent of uncertainty regarding U.S. supplies. While current spot prices remain steady, deteriorating crop conditions and looming weather risks could drive increased buying activity or renewed speculative interest ahead of the main harvest window.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Update Date	Sentiment
Corn	Yellow	FR	Paris	FOB	0.25	0.25	0%	2025-08-14	Neutral/Watchful
Corn	Yellow Feed Grade, 14.5% moisture	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.26	0.26	0%	2025-08-14	Neutral
Corn	Starch (organic)	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.94	1.94	0%	2025-08-13	Stable/Low Volume
Corn		UA	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.20	0%	2025-08-13	Weak/Discounted
Popcorn		BR	Dordrecht	FCA	0.75	0.75	0%	2025-08-14	Stable
Popcorn	Expansion, 40/42	AR	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.82	0.82	0%	2025-08-14	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US Crop Deterioration: Corn crop rated good-to-excellent now at 71% (down from the five-year average of 74%). Key U.S. states saw a 3-percentage-point drop. 21% now rated fair, with 8% in poor/very poor condition.
• Developmental Delays: 32% of the U.S. corn crop is lagging in development—a potential yield risk if heat stress persists.
• Global Supply: European and Black Sea exports remain steady, providing some buffer against sharp U.S. supply disruptions for now.
• Consumption Trends: Global feed and biofuel demand are stable; China remains a large importer, but demand is not spiking yet.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Weekly Report: Two consecutive weeks of deteriorating conditions suggest higher potential for disappointing yields.
• Speculative Positioning: Hedge funds and managed money have been building cautious long positions in anticipation of supply risks, but overall open interest remains moderate given the lack of a sharp price rally.
• Inventories: U.S. and global stock-to-use ratios remain adequate but could tighten if poor field conditions persist through harvest.
• Price Drivers: Upcoming USDA yield estimates, late-season weather (particularly in the Midwest), and global export pace.

🌦 Weather Outlook

Region	3-Day Forecast	Potential Impact
US Midwest (IA, IL, NE)	Highs 32-36°C, spotty showers, high humidity	Risk of further heat stress and dehydration; rain may bring marginal relief
France	Warm (28-30°C), chance of showers, moderate humidity	Generally favorable for finishing crop development
Ukraine	Cooler (22-24°C), scattered storms	Improved moisture supports late grain fill

• Ongoing heat in the Midwest remains a wildcard for U.S. yields, while Europe and Ukraine benefit from moderate, stabilizing weather.

🌐 Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2025 Expected Production (Mt)	2025 Ending Stocks (Mt)	Trend vs Prior Year
USA	380*	42*	Neutral/Downside if weather worsens
China	285*	210*	Stable
Brazil	125*	14*	Slight Downside
EU	64*	11*	Stable
Ukraine	29*	2*	Stable

*Preliminary estimates. Subject to change upon September USDA updates.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider pre-harvest hedging as Midwest weather risks remain unresolved and U.S. crop conditions deteriorate.
• Exporters: Monitor U.S. logistics and weather closely—potential for higher demand from Europe and Asia if U.S. output falters.
• Buyers: Secure partial forward coverage, especially for Q4, before potential late-summer price volatility arrives.
• Speculators: Watch for more fund interest if crop ratings slip further; upward price volatility possible if current weather trends persist.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Location	Last Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Bias
Euronext (MATIF)	Paris	0.25	0.24–0.27	Neutral-to-Bullish
Ukraine Export FOB	Odesa	0.20	0.20–0.22	Steady
Popcorn Spot	Argentina, Brazil	0.75–0.82	0.74–0.85	Stable