Cumin Market Update: Bullish Momentum Fueled by Strong Demand and Tight Supply

The global cumin market continues to display impressive resilience, with prices demonstrating steady upward momentum amidst persistent demand and tightening supply conditions. As per the latest trading session, the benchmark cumin rate has reached USD 250 per quintal, posting a daily gain of USD 1.20. Market analysts attribute this firmness to robust export inquiries coupled with limited availability from major origins, particularly India and Egypt. With buyers remaining active and supply chain constraints yet to ease, many experts predict that prices could witness a further surge of USD 72–84 per quintal in the near term. The September contract on the NCDEX futures has also reflected this optimism, closing 0.18% higher at USD 232 per quintal. The prevailing bullish sentiment is reinforced by local reports pointing to lower-than-expected arrivals and ongoing dependency on stored inventories.

Supply-side worries are being intensified by below-average monsoon rainfall in India’s major cumin-producing states like Gujarat and Rajasthan, raising the prospect of stress for the ongoing crop. Meanwhile, strong demand from international markets—particularly in Europe and the Middle East—continues to outpace current exportable surplus. With these factors converging, the cumin market appears set for continued volatility, with price risks skewed to the upside. Market participants are keenly watching for any changes in weather forecasts and government export policies that could influence trading patterns in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Cumin seeds 99.9%	Egypt	Cairo	FOB	4.85	-0.03	Bullish
Cumin seeds, black, grade A	Egypt	Cairo	FOB	2.18	0.00	Neutral
Cumin powder	Syria	Dordrecht (NL)	FCA	4.75	-0.20	Bearish
Cumin seed	Syria	Dordrecht (NL)	FCA	4.00	-0.15	Bearish

Key Exchange Prices

Exchange/Contract	Latest Price (USD/qtl)	Change	Sentiment
NCDEX Sep-25	232	+0.18%	Bullish
Benchmark Spot	250	+1.20	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Strong export demand, especially from Europe and the Middle East, continues to support prices.
• Reduced arrivals from key Indian states due to adverse weather and lower 2025 acreage.
• Egyptian and Syrian cumin shipments are steady but cannot offset Indian supply tightness.
• Stocks at major mandis remain tight, heightening market sensitivity to new arrivals.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventories: Below-average in India driven by heavy shipments and farmer holding.
• USDA/Crop Reports: Local ag agencies warn of a ~10% shortfall in India’s production due to erratic monsoons.
• Speculative Activity: Bullish positioning continues on NCDEX futures contracts.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Gujarat & Rajasthan, India: Monsoon rains have underperformed by 15–20%, raising stress on plant development. Mild to moderate drought conditions may limit yield potential if dry weather persists.
• Egypt: No major weather disruptions reported; irrigation-supported crops stable.
• Syria: Stable conditions, but logistic challenges persist due to regional tensions.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. Est. (t)	2024/25 Stock Est. (t)
India	~225,000	20,000
Egypt	~35,000	5,000
Syria	~18,000	2,500

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued price firmness due to tight inventories and high export demand.
• Buyers advised to secure near-term needs; further upside likely if Indian weather fails to improve.
• Monitor Indian government export policy changes; unexpected restrictions could trigger short-term volatility.
• Sellers should consider incremental releases to capitalize on upward price risk.
• Hedge open positions on NCDEX Sep/Nov contracts to manage exposure.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• NCDEX (India): Range-bound with upward bias, expected 233–256 USD/qtl
• Cairo (Egypt, FOB 99.9%): 4.80–4.95 EUR/kg, steady to firmer
• Dordrecht (NL, FCA): Cumin powder/seed soft to stable, 3.95–4.80 EUR/kg