The global goji berry market is undergoing a period of pronounced volatility, driven by delayed harvesting in China—responsible for the lion’s share of global supply—and historically low carryover stocks. Market participants are grappling with sharp price increases as the combination of reduced availability, heightened domestic demand, and new regulatory pressures send ripples through both export and domestic channels. Recent weather adversities in key production regions like Qinghai have not only shortened the harvesting window this year, but also raised the risk of quality fluctuations and frost losses, intensifying competition for the limited 2024 crop—which, in many places, has already been sold out for forward contracts.
Amid these supply constraints, export prices to Europe have jumped by nearly $900 per tonne in less than two months, with premium organic grades reaching record highs. In China, speculation and tight physical stocks have propelled wholesale prices in Xinjiang to nearly $11.15/kg. This market tension is further exacerbated by China’s rapidly expanding e-commerce sector and strong internal pull from leading provinces like Ningxia, where online sales alone have surpassed $213 million in 2024. Meanwhile, U.S.–China trade frictions and the implementation of new tariffs on specialty foods are stoking uncertainty for North American buyers. Quality management remains front and center, with consumer and regulatory scrutiny elevating risks around heavy metals and additives, especially for shipments into the EU. Looking forward, experts anticipate continued growth for the sector, but warn that price firmness is likely to persist until at least November, emphasizing the need for early contract coverage and vigilant quality controls.
📈 Prices & Market Table
| Product | Count | Origin | Location | Terms | EUR/t | USD/t* | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goji berries dried | 380 pcs/100g | China | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 6,900 | ~7,400 | -1.4% | Firm/Bullish |
| Goji berries dried | 500 pcs/100g | China | CFR Hamburg | CFR | ~7,040 | ~7,040 | +13.7% | Firm/Bullish |
| Goji berries dried (Organic) | 280 pcs/100g | China | CFR Hamburg | CFR | ~8,700 | ~9,130 | +12.2% | Very Firm/Premium |
*USD prices approximate (based on recent FX rates)
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- China’s 2024 Harvest Delayed: ~2 weeks behind 2023 due to cool, wet spring; risks of frost losses in Qinghai. Most crop already forward-sold.
- Minimal Carryover: Low opening stocks strain market until new crop peak (expected from November).
- Domestic Surge: Online sales in Ningxia (61% of China’s online market, $213M value in 2024)—competing directly with exports.
- Export Disruption: U.S.–China tariff measures for 2025 and stricter EU food safety regulations increase uncertainty and compliance costs.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Data
- Global Market Size: $1.5–1.6 billion (2024–25), with 4–7% CAGR forecast towards 2030s (sector to exceed $2 billion).
- Key Origins: China (Ningxia, Xinjiang, Qinghai provinces dominate), accounting for 95%+ of world production.
- Leading Importers: EU (Germany, Netherlands), U.S., Japan.
- Inventories: Nearly exhausted; most 2024 crop pre-sold.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Conditions
- China (Ningxia/Xinjiang/Qinghai): Cooler-than-average temperatures and unseasonal rains slowed berry development; Qinghai faces higher frost risk as picking is delayed until late September. Next five days: Stable, but cooler nights could stress late-ripening berries.
- Weather Impact: Shortens effective harvest window, increases risk of underdeveloped or frost-damaged fruit, and reduces potential yield.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Overview
| Country/Region | 2023 Output (t) | Est. 2024 Output (t) | Stock Status | Export Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 220,000 | ~212,000* | Minimal | >95% |
| Turkey | 3,000 | 3,200 | Ample | <5% |
| Others | 2,500 | 2,600 | Minor | <1% |
*Preliminary, subject to weather risks
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Secure forward coverage: Early booking recommended, especially for premium/organic grades through November.
- Monitor weather risk: Qinghai and Xinjiang late ripening window remains at risk until October.
- Prioritize quality control: Implement rigorous supplier screening and testing (for heavy metals, irradiation, sulfites).
- Watch trade policy: Remain alert to U.S. and EU regulatory/tariff changes in 2025.
- Physical stockholders: Benefit from strong pricing, but beware of fast corrections if weather improves.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Product/Grade | Today | +1 Day | +2 Days | +3 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht (NL) | 380 pcs/100g (FCA) | €6.90/kg | €7.00/kg | €7.00/kg | €7.00/kg |
| Hamburg (DE) | 500 pcs/100g (CFR) | $7,040/t | $7,080/t | $7,140/t | $7,180/t |
| Hamburg (DE) | Organic 280 pcs/100g | $9,130/t | $9,130/t | $9,180/t | $9,200/t |
Forecast assumes persistent tight supply and firm sentiment.
