After weeks of steady declines, the global raisins market is showing clear signs of recovery. Driven by a resurgence in festive-season demand—especially ahead of key cultural events like Diwali—traders and producers are now greeting a far firmer price environment than what prevailed just a month ago. Notably, Indian market participants report that raisin prices had dropped by up to $0.50 per kg over the past four weeks. However, the onset of the festive season has reignited buying activity, with expectations that prices will continue to rise in the coming weeks.
Crop fundamentals underpin this bullish dynamic: India’s 2025–26 raisin production is projected at just 18,000–20,000 truckloads, substantially lower than last year’s 22,000–24,000 truckloads. Carryover stocks have also been nearly halved, contributing to reduced daily arrivals and firmer spot pricing. This supply tightness is echoed globally, as key origin countries like Turkey and China balance robust export flows against a backdrop of solid import demand from the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
The confluence of falling stocks, smaller new-crop output, and sustained export interest means the market is well supported across principal producing and trading centers. Export-grade raisins, in particular, have maintained firm to stronger trade levels, and the forecast calls for additional price upside if supply arrivals remain as limited as currently observed. For traders, processors, and end-users, the coming weeks will be pivotal for procurement decisions as the market enters a potentially protracted phase of relative firmness.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Raisins
golden, grade aa
FOB 1.94 €/kg
(from IN)
Raisins
brown, grade aa
FOB 1.48 €/kg
(from IN)
Raisins
black, grade aa
FOB 1.44 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Current Market Levels
| Type | Origin | Location | FOB/FCA/CIF | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden, grade AA | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.94 | 1.94 | 2025-08-23 |
| Brown, grade AA | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.48 | 1.48 | 2025-08-23 |
| Black, grade AA | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.44 | 1.44 | 2025-08-23 |
| Sultanas, type 9, RTU | CN | Hamburg | FCA | 2.11 | 2.22 | 2025-08-22 |
| Feed, brown | AF | Dordrecht | FCA | 1.83 | 1.85 | 2025-08-21 |
| Flame Jumbo | CL | Dordrecht | FCA | 2.40 | 2.42 | 2025-08-21 |
| Sultanas, std, no: 9, grade AA | CN | Dordrecht | FCA | 2.10 | 2.12 | 2025-08-21 |
| Nr. 9, RTU | TR | Dordrecht | FCA | 2.80 | 2.82 | 2025-08-21 |
| Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU | TR | MALATYA | CIF | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2025-08-20 |
| Sultanas, type 9, grade A | TR | MALATYA | FOB | 3.65 | 3.65 | 2025-08-20 |
| Sultanas, type 8, grade A | TR | MALATYA | FOB | 3.55 | 3.55 | 2025-08-20 |
| Sultanas, type 10, grade A | TR | MALATYA | FOB | 4.05 | 4.05 | 2025-08-20 |
| Sultanas, type 9, grade A, organic | TR | MALATYA | FOB | 4.00 | 4.00 | 2025-08-20 |
- Indian domestic: $4.20–$4.92/kg (Maharashtra); $4.44–$5.16/kg (Karnataka)
- Export grade: $5.55–$6.00/kg (firm, India)
- Market sentiment: Turning bullish, with upward pressure expected over next four weeks
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India production: 18,000–20,000 truckloads (down ~15% y/y); previous year: 22,000–24,000 truckloads
- Carryover stocks: 2,000–3,000 truckloads vs. 5,000–6,000 truckloads last year
- Daily arrivals: 35–40 trucks/day (down from 50–60 trucks/day)
- Festive & export demand: Strong, especially from Middle East/Southeast Asia (recent exports: 370–390 containers/month)
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Weak production and lower carry-in stocks underpin resilience in spot and forward prices
- Robust consumption from confectionery, bakery, ethnic sweets, and snack segments sustains local and export market activity
- Export momentum evident in higher containerized shipments
- Key external risks: Currency volatility (especially INR/EUR/USD), shipping/freight disruptions, further weather shocks
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Maharashtra: Reports of below-normal rainfall in key districts; vine health generally stable but some concerns about berry drying rates. Weather expected to remain dry and warm over the next 7 days, allowing harvest and curing to proceed, but risks to quality if excessive heat occurs.
- Karnataka: Moderate to dry pattern; irrigation resources sufficient for late-season crop. No imminent threat to final yields, but quality will depend on late-season warmth and day-night differentials.
- Turkey: Mild, dry conditions last month, supporting harvest progress for sultanas, though some North Aegean vineyards reporting smaller berry size due to summer drought.
- China: Xinjiang region: hot, dry, risk of some shrink in late-harvest grades, but overall production near long-term average.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- India: 18,000–20,000 truckloads forecast 2025–26; exports surging regionally
- Turkey: 2025 sultana crop slightly below average, export stocks moderate
- China: Steady output, with supplies flowing to Europe, Middle East
- California (US): Near-steady output, large inventories from previous years tempering price moves domestically
📆 Trading Outlook & Next Steps
- Buyers: Early procurement recommended—festive season may push prices higher by $0.60–$0.72/kg if arrivals remain constrained
- Sellers: Hold firm on pricing as market moves into tighter supply phase
- Exporters: Focus on Middle East and Southeast Asia, where demand remains most buoyant
- Watch: Supply arrivals in Indian mandis; quality differentials by origin
- Monitor: Any weather anomalies in the next 2–3 weeks, plus policy changes on shipments and trade tariffs
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price Range | Forecast Trend (3 days) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| India (Maharashtra/Karnataka) | $4.20–$5.16/kg | Firming, +1–2% | Bullish |
| IN (New Delhi, FOB, Golden/Brown/Black AA) | €1.44–€1.94/kg | Stable to +2% | Supportive |
| TR (Malatya, Sultanas) | €2.40–€4.05/kg | Stable | Steady |
| CN (Hamburg, Sultanas 9 RTU) | €2.11/kg | Stable | Neutral |
