Global coconut markets are witnessing robust price increases propelled by both structural shortages and active demand across key producing and consuming regions. For the past three months, dry coconut (copra) availability has been exceedingly tight, igniting a clear upward price momentum. Traders report that prices have climbed by nearly $1.20 per 100 kg within the last week alone—a trend underpinned by restricted supply as 65–66% of production from major states is channelled directly into domestic consumption. This leaves little surplus open for trade, intensifying price firmness.
Higher procurement from mills and traders is being supported by the upcoming festival season and a seasonal export push—particularly to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Middle Eastern markets. Market insiders anticipate that these bullish factors will sustain firmness for at least another two months. However, there is potential for price correction post-harvest if arrivals increase after 7–8 months. In the meantime, with farmers holding stocks and expecting further gains and arrivals still below average, bullish sentiment persists. The ongoing interplay between strong demand, limited supply, and festival-driven consumption will be decisive in shaping short-term price action. As the festive period approaches and export momentum continues, traders and processors are bracing for further gains, particularly if weather risks add more uncertainty to new arrivals.
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📈 Prices: Market Levels at a Glance
| Product | Origin | Delivery Location | Grade/Type | Latest Price (EUR/mt) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut dried (flakes, non-organic) | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 4.62 | 0.00% | Stable to Firm |
| Coconut dried (flakes, organic) | Philippines | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 3.04 | -0.66% | Softening Slightly |
| Coconut dried (flakes, non-organic) | Philippines | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 2.65 | -1.12% | Softening Slightly |
| Coconut dried (desiccated medium grade) | Indonesia | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 1.90 | -1.55% | Weaker |
| Coconut dried (desiccated, non-organic) | Indonesia | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 1.95 | -0.51% | Weaker |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Supply Crunch: Dry coconut (copra) has remained in short supply for three months, with just 65–66% of expected produce reaching mandis. Farmers are holding back supply, hoping for continued price rises.
- Active Domestic and Export Demand: Steady procurement by mills, traders, and a rise in export activity—especially to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Middle East.
- Internal Absorption: Two-thirds of copra output is now consumed domestically, severely limiting tradable surplus.
- Firm Prices: Premium desiccated and ball copra trading at upper-end values (premium ball copra up to $1,325/mt; standard $1,140–$1,280/mt).
- Festival Effect: Seasonal demand is expected to further boost prices over the next 1–2 months.
- Export-Quality Surge: 72–73% of arrivals are of export quality, which are presently in robust demand.
📊 Fundamentals & Key Data
| Copra Type | Latest Price (USD/mt) | Retail Price (USD/100kg) | Export Share (%) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sukha Golaa (desiccated) | 545–565 | 380–440 | 72–73 | In strong export demand |
| Ball Copra (standard) | 1,140–1,280 | – | – | Trading near highs |
| Ball Copra (premium) | 1,325–1,500 | – | – | Top quality, very limited |
- Market insiders report premium dried copra retailing at $380–$440/100 kg; bulk at ~$400/100 kg.
- Export momentum adds price lift, with some correction possible post-harvest arrivals in 7–8 months.
🌦️ Weather & Harvest Outlook
- Weather in Key Regions: Recent dryness continues in major producing belts of India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, hampering copra formation and drying. Short-term forecasts indicate below-normal rainfall and elevated temperatures in parts of South and Southeast Asia, potentially delaying or reducing next copra arrivals.
- Near-Term Effect: If dry weather persists over the next several weeks, it will further restrict supplies and underpin higher prices.
🌐 Global Stock Snapshot
| Country | Production Trend | 2023-24 Output (estimate) | Notable Export Flows |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | Stable to Down | Majority for domestic use | Modest exports, mainly dried/desiccated |
| Philippines | Firm | Major exporter | Europe, Middle East dominated |
| Indonesia | Stable | Third largest globally | Export focus: desiccated and copra cake |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bulls: Stay long on copra and dried coconut; prices set to remain firm for 1–2 months, especially in premium grades.
- End-users: Secure forward contracts for desiccated and high-quality copra to hedge against further short-term price gains.
- Exporters: Monitor demand in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Middle East—export premiums are attractive amid limited availability.
- Traders: Watch for farmer-held stocks and any early harvest signals. Quick release of stock may temper a sharp rally.
- Weather-watch: Adverse weather can further restrict supply—stay alert to monsoon and typhoon forecasts over the next quarter.
- Potential Price Correction: Longer-term, prices may correct as post-harvest arrivals increase, but short-term risks remain bullish.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Wholesale Markets)
| Market | Product | Current Price (USD/mt) | Short-term Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| South India | Ball Copra (standard) | 1,140–1,280 | ↑ Firm to Higher |
| Philippines | Desiccated Copra | 545–565 | ↔ Steady/Firm |
| Indonesia | Desiccated Copra | 1,900 (EUR/mt; see table) | ↓ Slight Adjustment Possible |
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