The Ajwain (carom seed) market is navigating a challenging phase as substantial carryover stocks and robust new arrivals continue to pressure prices across major producing and trading centers. Even seasonal demand from food, spice, and pharmaceutical industries has not been enough to boost buying interest, as stockiest are still holding significant inventories. Prices, which have oscillated between USD 156 and 187 per quintal recently, are showing further weakness. In key producing states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, rates have dipped to USD 133–205 per quintal, while Unjha – the largest spot market – has seen quotes from USD 169–228 per quintal.
This imbalance between ample supply and tepid demand is being felt not just domestically but also in export channels, particularly with weak buying interest from importers in Pakistan and neighboring countries. As the new crop is set to arrive in the coming weeks and old stocks remain unsold, market sentiment has turned cautious, and most traders foresee limited potential for an uptrend unless demand improves sharply or arrivals slow considerably. Unless there’s a notable change in the demand-supply equation, ajwain prices are expected to remain subdued in the short term, offering little incentive for bullish positioning.
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📈 Price Overview
| Market | Current Price (Min) | Current Price (Max) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madhya Pradesh | USD 133/Qtl | USD 205/Qtl | -4% to -2% | Bearish |
| Rajasthan | USD 133/Qtl | USD 205/Qtl | -5% to -2% | Bearish |
| Unjha (Wholesale) | USD 169/Qtl | USD 228/Qtl | -3% | Bearish |
| India (FOB – New Delhi, Seed, grade A, organic) | EUR 3.5/kg | No change | Subdued | |
| India (FOB – New Delhi, Powder, grade B, organic) | EUR 3.84/kg | No change | Subdued | |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Stock Position: Large carryover stocks from 2023 have muted typical seasonal price support.
- Arrivals: Heavy inflow from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan with the new harvest imminent. Stockists are refraining from aggressive buying.
- Demand: Mild uptick during festive season but not sufficient to offset surplus; export demand from Pakistan and neighbors is weak.
- Outlook: Unless new buying emerges, the downside risk persists.
📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers
- Old Crop vs. New Stock: Persistent old crop stocks have restrained prices despite seasonal demand.
- Export Markets: Soft overseas demand, particularly from Pakistan, is capping any bullish moves.
- Speculative Activity: Limited; market participation is cautious due to unexciting fundamentals.
- Exchange Rate: Stable INR/EUR and INR/USD rates are keeping FOB export prices unaltered.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan: Mostly clear with scattered light showers; favorable for harvest, expected to further boost arrivals.
- Gujarat: No major weather disruptions reported—continued arrivals likely.
- Impact: Continued favorable weather means supply pressure will persist and may extend the softness in prices.
🌏 Production & Stocks Snapshot
| Country | 2023 Estimated Production (MT) | 2024 Projected Production (MT) | Carryover Stock (MT) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~54,000 | ~56,000 | High | Main producer; large carryover and new crop arriving |
| Pakistan | ~5,000 | ~5,100 | Low | Net importer, low demand at present |
| Rest of World | Minor | Minor | Minimal | Niche consumption/export |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor new crop arrivals—expect further price pressure unless arrivals unexpectedly slow down.
- Stockists should reduce exposure, as limited upside is foreseen in the short term.
- Exporters: Carefully gauge Pakistani and Middle Eastern demand before making forward commitments.
- Buyers may see value at the lower end of the price range if export signals strengthen or arrivals fall off unexpectedly.
- Expect volatility if weather disrupts the harvest or logistics in key states.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (USD/Qtl) | Forecast Price Range (USD/Qtl) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madhya Pradesh | 133–205 | 130–200 | Weak |
| Rajasthan | 133–205 | 130–200 | Weak |
| Unjha | 169–228 | 160–220 | Weak |
Unless there is an abrupt shift in demand—either export-led or due to unexpected weather—ajwain prices will likely remain under pressure for the coming week.
