Italy’s hazelnut market, typically a cornerstone of the European nuts sector, is reeling from one of its toughest seasons in recent memory. The 2025 harvest outlook has darkened considerably, with key regions like Lazio, Campania, and above all, Piedmont reporting production losses ranging from 30% to catastrophic levels exceeding 100% in older orchards. Unprecedented weather volatility—including extreme rain and temperature swings—coupled with persistent pest outbreaks, has exposed the crop’s mounting vulnerability. Producers are responding with urgent innovation initiatives and cost-saving measures, yet widespread low morale underscores the scale of the challenge.
With market prices opening significantly higher at recent trade fairs, there is cautious hope that stronger prices will offset some of the financial pain. However, structural issues—climate impacts, recurring fruit drop, and mounting agronomic stresses—remain unresolved, posing key questions for the season ahead.
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Market/Exchange | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazelnuts (Italy 2025 forward) | Italy | Castagnole delle Lanze Fair | $512–$567/100 kg (USD) | +7% est. | Firm/Bullish |
| Brazil nuts | Netherlands | Dordrecht FCA | €6.58/kg | Stable (0%) | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Weather-related supply shocks: Severe rainfall, temperature volatility, and local climate extremes have slashed Italian hazelnut output by 30–60%, with some orchards completely wiped out.
- Pest & Disease pressure: In Campania, the Asian hazelnut bug has significantly damaged nut quality.
- Producer response: Younger orchards in Lazio demonstrate some resilience, while older orchards face abandonment in worst-hit areas.
- Market expectations: Producers are hoping elevated prices will partially counterbalance the impact of lower crops.
- Global supplies: No significant offset from other major producers (e.g., Turkey) has been reported yet in 2025.
📊 Fundamentals
| Country | 2024 Production (kt) | 2025F Production (kt) | 2025F Stocks (kt) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 110* | 70–77 (est.) | 13 (est.) | -30 to -40% |
| Turkey | 650* | n.a. | n.a. | — |
| USA (Oregon, hazelnuts) | 60* | 65 (est.) | n.a. | +8% |
| Global | 940* | 900–910 (est.) | — | -3 to -4% |
*Based on industry and FAOstat estimates. 2025 data is preliminary/estimated.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Regional Impacts
- Lazio: Short-term forecast: scattered thunderstorms, with above-average rainfall over the next 5 days; likely to challenge drying and late harvesting.
- Campania: Intermittent rainfall expected; risk of further nut drop if heavy showers occur. Drier spells could help remaining crop quality, but pests remain a risk.
- Piedmont: Continued unsettled conditions, with cooler temperatures; persistent excess humidity could compound fruit drop and disease problems.
- Turkey (Black Sea): Stable and favorable, but early heat waves could affect flowering if they persist.
🌐 World Market Comparison
- Italy: Facing its lowest hazelnut harvest in decades, with inconsistent regional impacts and a heavy reliance on price to drive grower survival.
- Turkey: Remains top global supplier, largely setting world price direction, but internal market dynamics (currency, export policy) are stable atm.
- USA: Slight production increase in Oregon; still a minor player on global scale.
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Secure Italian-origin hazelnut coverage early, especially if quality is paramount—significant shortages are expected in premium segments.
- Producers: Focus on quality and storage investments to maximize price realization; monitor for market peaks tied to early price hikes.
- Speculators: Hazelnut contract prices likely to remain elevated; high volatility may present short-term trading opportunities, but watch Turkish output closely.
- Processers: Explore alternative nut origins or blends to mitigate price risk and supply bottlenecks for the 2025 confectionery season.
- General caution: Pricing power remains with suppliers; expect tight spot market conditions and potential new highs if Turkish output disappoints.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Product | Current Price | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Forecast Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castagnole delle Lanze Fair | Hazelnuts (2025 harvest fwd) | $540/100 kg (USD, midpoint) | $543 | $546 | $550 | Steadily Rising |
| Dordrecht (NL, FCA) | Brazil nuts | €6.58/kg | €6.58 | €6.59 | €6.60 | Slight Upturn |
Global trends assume continued Italian shortages; Turkish pricing and weather are key wildcards.
