Soya Market in Flux: Chinese Demand Drop, Brazilian Surge, and Price Pressure Ahead

The global soya market is facing a significant shift as Chinese importers—the world’s largest buyers of soybeans—scale back purchases from the US. This slowdown is rooted in a confluence of factors: weak Chinese crushing margins, robust domestic harvests in China, and a surge of competitively priced beans arriving from Brazil, which recently harvested a record crop. US soybean exporters are feeling the pinch as they accumulate higher inventories and face sliding prices, while Brazilian suppliers continue to capitalize on strong demand from Asia. China’s tactical use of state reserves and alternative origins like Argentina further underscores its intent to bolster food security and negotiate from a position of strength.

For US farmers and traders, these changing import flows could mean further downward pressure on prices—especially as the US harvest season nears and export inspections continue to underwhelm. Meanwhile, Brazil stands as the clear winner, consolidating its role as the dominant global exporter. For China, the heightened diversification and strategic management of reserves provide both a buffer against supply risks and leverage in future trade talks. With weather patterns in the main growing regions largely favorable and a broad oversupply looming, market participants must reassess their strategies in a volatile and increasingly competitive environment.

📈 Soya Market Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
China	Yellow, organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	0.79	0%	Stable
China	Yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	0.70	-1.4%	Bearish
USA	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	0.35	0%	Bearish
India	Sortex clean	–	No	New Delhi	0.72	0%	Stable
Ukraine	–	–	No	Odesa	0.34	-2.9%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Chinese Demand Down: Crushers discouraged by weak margins and high local stocks are reducing US soybean purchases—even as harvest nears.
• Brazillian Competition: Record Brazilian output and lower export prices are funneling demand away from US and Argentina.
• Chinese Reserves & Diversification: Importers rely more on state reserves, alternate origins (including Argentina), and domestic crop, decreasing near-term dependency on US beans.
• US Export Slowdown: USDA reports weaker export inspections and declining shipment volumes; exporters face the risk of stock build-up.
• Forecast: China’s import pullback is expected to persist through late 2025, only buying from the US during peak months.

📊 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (est., million tons)	Ending Stocks (est., million tons)	Trend
Brazil	165	30	⬆ Expansion, record crop
USA	117	9	⬇ Stock build-up, weaker exports
China	20	21	⬆ High reserves, less import need
Argentina	50	5	Stable/Recovering

⛅ Weather Outlook for Key Regions

• US Midwest: Conditions are favorable, with adequate rainfall forecasted for the remainder of the critical pod-filling stage. Production risks remain low.
• Brazil: Clear weather and optimal soil moisture in the south support planting intentions for 2025. Drought risk is low.
• China: Harvest weather has been benign, supporting a robust domestic crop and minimal losses.
• Argentina: Weather mostly average, some localized dryness but no major threats reported.

📌 Market Drivers & Speculative Positioning

• Latest USDA reports confirm sliding US shipments and export orders.
• Speculators have trimmed long positions in US soybeans, reflecting expectations for further price weakness.
• Brazil’s robust production outlook and competitive pricing remain a key bearish driver.
• Chinese policy focus on food security and diversification of imports signals sustained weak US demand.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Sellers: Consider price hedging as oversupply and tepid demand are likely to keep US and Black Sea prices under pressure in Q3 2025.
• 📈 Buyers: Monitor Brazilian and Indian offers for longer-term contracts; favorable pricing likely to persist.
• 🔄 Traders: Watch for brief US export rallies during peak Chinese demand months (October–January) but expect these to be short-lived.
• ⚠️ Risk: Unexpected weather risks in South America or abrupt Chinese buying could cause temporary price spikes but are not the base case.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	FOB Price Forecast (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
USA	0.34 – 0.35	Weak/Bearish
China	0.70 – 0.79	Stable to slightly weaker
Brazil	0.33 – 0.37 (spot est.)	Stable
Ukraine	0.33 – 0.34	Bearish