The coconut market is witnessing a renewed surge in prices, particularly in Kerala, India, as copra and coconut oil values see a seasonal upswing. Key drivers include strategic stock holding by traders and farmers ahead of major festivals such as Onam and North India’s festive season. Retail coconut oil prices in Kerala have rebounded to around USD 4.68/liter, with wholesale holding at USD 4.47/liter—levels not seen since the pre-summer peak. This spike reverses recent declines caused by significant fresh arrivals from Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, underscoring the delicate balance between supply influx and demand anticipation.
Copra prices remain firm at USD 2.65/kg, buoyed by active purchases from local traders at USD 3–3.60/kg, making coconut oil sales below USD 4.20/liter economically unviable. Meanwhile, reduced arrivals of raw coconuts are lending further price support. The Kerala government has intervened, offering subsidized coconut oil to stabilize rates, but with limited success during the high-demand festive window. Looking ahead, market participants are closely monitoring the volume of fresh copra and coconut arrivals to determine the near-term price trajectory. While current demand-side stock holding is pushing up prices, whether this rally sustains depends on forthcoming supplies and weather’s effect on crop yields. Global markets are also reflecting firmness, with dried coconut and desiccated coconut offerings steady in Europe—underscoring both localized seasonal pressures and wider international stability.
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📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Price (EUR/t) | Prev. Price | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut Oil (Retail) | IN | Kerala | Edible Oil | ~4,300 | ~3,900 | 2025-08-29 | Firm/Bullish |
| Coconut Oil (Wholesale) | IN | Kerala | Edible Oil | ~4,105 | ~3,850 | 2025-08-29 | Firm/Bullish |
| Copra | IN | Kerala | Dry Coconut | 2,440 | 2,400 | 2025-08-29 | Stable |
| Coconut dried (flakes, VN, conventional) | VN | Hanoi | Flakes | 4.62 | 4.62 | 2025-08-29 | Stable |
| Coconut dried (flakes, PH, organic) | PH | Dordrecht | Flakes, Organic | 3.04 | 3.04 | 2025-08-29 | Stable |
| Coconut dried (flakes, PH, conventional) | PH | Dordrecht | Flakes | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2025-08-29 | Stable |
| Coconut dried (desiccated, ID) | ID | Dordrecht | Desiccated | 1.90 | 1.90 | 2025-08-29 | Stable |
| Coconut dried (desiccated medium, ID) | ID | Dordrecht | Desiccated Medium | 1.95 | 1.95 | 2025-08-29 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Strong demand anticipated during Onam and North Indian festive season.
- Farmers and traders are holding copra, limiting supply and amplifying upward price pressure.
- Kerala government intervention is helping, but is not sufficient to curb price increases during the festival season.
- Reduced arrivals of raw coconuts underpin market tightness.
- EU coconut market remains stable with no fresh price increases in recent dried/desiccated coconut offers.
📊 Fundamentals
- Inventory: Traders’ and farmers’ inventory holding is high amid seasonal demand anticipation, reducing available liquidity.
- Speculative Positioning: Speculative buying by local traders is reported, especially in Kerala.
- Government Action: Kerala has subsidized coconut oil for consumers, with prices reduced to USD 4.05/litre, but festive demand limits the impact.
- Global Context: Dried coconut prices in Europe (FOB/FCA) remain unchanged, with Vietnam, Philippines, and Indonesia as key exporters.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Kerala/Tamil Nadu, India: Recent moderate to heavy rainfall aids standing coconut crops but may challenge post-harvest drying if the wet spell persists into September.
- Philippines: Favorable tropical conditions support healthy growth; no major cyclones expected near main coconut-growing regions.
- Indonesia and Vietnam: Typical wet season patterns prevail, with rainfall adequate but requiring monitoring for harvest logistics.
- Impact: Normal crops expected if weather stays stable; any late monsoon intensification could delay copra drying.
🔢 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (Estimate, ‘000 MT) | 2024 Ending Stocks (Estimate, ‘000 MT) | Market Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines | 14,400 | 1,850 | Top Exporter |
| Indonesia | 17,120 | 1,265 | Major Exporter |
| India | 14,250 | 950 | Top Consumer; Major Producer |
| Vietnam | 2,450 | 180 | Key EU Supplier |
| Nigeria | 1,350 | 90 | Growing Exporter |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term (1–2 weeks): Remain bullish on coconut oil and copra in Indian domestic markets—festive demand expected to sustain elevated prices.
- Avoid aggressive selling; further upside likely if fresh arrivals are delayed or below expectations.
- European buyers can count on stable dried/desiccated coconut prices, but monitor for potential tightening if South/Southeast Asian supplies divert to domestic markets.
- Watch India’s weather—persistent rainfall could dampen harvest logistics, supporting prices.
- Government intervention may cap price surges but is unlikely to reverse the bullish trend until after the festival season.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Product | Today | Day +1 | Day +2 | Day +3 | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerala (IN) | Coconut Oil Retail (USD/litre) | 4.68 | 4.68 | 4.70 | 4.73 | Bullish |
| Dordrecht (NL) | Coconut dried flakes (EUR/kg) | 2.65–3.04 | 2.65–3.04 | 2.65–3.04 | 2.65–3.04 | Stable |
| Hanoi (VN) | Coconut dried flakes (EUR/kg) | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.62 | 4.62 | Stable |
Note: All prices are subject to currency and exchange rate fluctuations.