The turmeric market currently faces a multifaceted challenge: lackluster demand from both domestic and international buyers, combined with a significant carryover of stocks, is driving prices downward across major trading hubs. Recent market activity reveals a sharp drop in prices—USD 2.40–3.60 per quintal—reflecting ongoing market pressure. With finger turmeric quoted at USD 154–156 per quintal, and bulb varieties at USD 167–194 per quintal (quality dependent), both producers and traders are left in a holding pattern, anticipating a price recovery that remains elusive.
The hope for stronger demand from consuming regions such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, and across South India has not materialized, dampening prospects further as festival-driven consumption has yet to provide relief. International buyers, especially from the Middle East and Southeast Asia, are adopting a wait-and-see approach, holding off on large purchase commitments in light of the current oversupply and slackened global demand outlook. Heading into the next harvest season, eyes remain on consumer sentiment and export flow, as additional market arrivals threaten to intensify the downward pressure if consumption or export orders fail to pick up.
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Turmeric whole
FOB 2.55 €/kg
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Turmeric powder
FOB 3.38 €/kg
(from IN)
Turmeric dried
finger salem,double polished, grade A
FOB 1.60 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Turmeric Prices: Current Market Snapshot
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole (Organic) | India | New Delhi | FOB | 2.55 | 2.60 | -1.9% | Bearish |
| Turmeric powder (Organic) | India | New Delhi | FOB | 3.38 | 3.41 | -0.9% | Bearish |
| Turmeric dried (Finger Salem, A) | India | Telangana | FOB | 1.60 | 1.65 | -3.0% | Bearish |
| Turmeric dried (Finger Nizamabad, A) | India | Telangana | FOB | 1.50 | 1.54 | -2.6% | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Key Drivers
- Supply Overhang: Substantial carryover stocks from previous harvests in major producing regions.
- Export Caution: Buyers from the Middle East and Southeast Asia are hesitating, contributing further to subdued demand.
- Muted Domestic Consumption: Major Indian consuming states report lackluster buying, even ahead of the festival season.
- Outlook on Crop Arrivals: Anticipation of new harvests early next year could push prices lower barring demand improvement.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Dynamics
- Stocks Position: High levels of unsold stocks in the hands of farmers and traders, waiting for better prices.
- Speculative Holdings: Cautious sentiment prevails; speculative interest remains low as fresh export orders are absent.
- Price Comparison with Previous Report: Prices have dropped 1.9–3% week-on-week with deepening bearish sentiment vs. the previous update where mild stabilization was anticipated.
| Country | 2023/24 Production (est., million tons) | Carryover Stocks (est., million tons) | 2023/24 Export (est., million tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~1.1 | High | ~0.20 |
| Bangladesh | 0.18 | Moderate | 0.03 |
| Myanmar | 0.16 | Low | 0.025 |
| Indonesia | 0.11 | Low | 0.02 |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- India (Key States—Telangana, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu): Normal rainfall in past month with occasional excessive spells; soil moisture conditions remain supportive of crop health.
- Potential Risk: Market is monitoring late-season rains which could affect curcumin content and drying quality, though no immediate threat expected for next 3 days.
- Harvest Prospects: If favorable weather continues, new arrivals will begin in late January, potentially exacerbating oversupply.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Adopt a cautious approach—avoid large buying unless export signs improve or there is a pickup in festival/seasonal domestic demand.
- Monitor global market developments, especially in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, for changes in buying activity.
- Focus on stock management—consider gradual offloading on minor rallies to mitigate further downside exposure.
- Watch for cues from official crop and export data releases for possible trend reversals.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Indian Hubs, FOB)
| Product | Location | Today (EUR/kg) | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turmeric whole (Organic) | New Delhi | 2.55 | 2.53 – 2.56 | 2.52 – 2.55 |
| Turmeric powder (Organic) | New Delhi | 3.38 | 3.36 – 3.39 | 3.35 – 3.38 |
| Turmeric dried (Finger Salem) | Telangana | 1.60 | 1.58 – 1.60 | 1.57 – 1.60 |
| Turmeric dried (Finger Nizamabad) | Telangana | 1.50 | 1.48 – 1.50 | 1.47 – 1.50 |
