The coconut market is standing at a pivotal junction as Sri Lanka ramps up its cultivation efforts in response to robust domestic and export demand. Already a powerhouse in global coconut production, Sri Lanka’s latest strategy reveals a determined approach to reshape both its own economy and the broader regional supply outlook. The government’s plan, centered on increasing annual output to 2.5 billion coconuts by 2030, is matched by targeted interventions—ranging from financial incentives for high-yield plantations to state-supported research on disease resistance and intercropping.
While Sri Lanka’s current production (about 3 billion nuts per year) already secures domestic food needs and bolsters a thriving export sector, the renewed emphasis on yield, technology, and value-added processing is forecasted to boost export earnings substantially from the USD 836 million posted in 2024. This comes at a time when key producers and processors across Southeast Asia are watching price developments, weather volatility, and logistical disruptions. As the market digests these changes, stable prices for coconut-derived products like flakes and desiccated coconut prevail in Europe and Asia, while traders anticipate firmer fundamentals should weather risk or supply bottlenecks emerge during the critical growing season.
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Coconut dried
flakes
FOB 4.62 €/kg
(from VN)
Coconut dried
flakes
FCA 3.04 €/kg
(from NL)
Coconut dried
flakes
FCA 2.65 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Market Prices at a Glance
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Organic | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Last Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut dried | Vietnam | Hanoi | Flakes | No | FOB | 4.62 | 4.62 | 0% | Stable |
| Coconut dried | Philippines | Dordrecht (NL) | Flakes | Yes | FCA | 3.04 | 3.04 | 0% | Stable |
| Coconut dried | Philippines | Dordrecht (NL) | Flakes | No | FCA | 2.65 | 2.65 | 0% | Stable |
| Coconut dried | Indonesia | Dordrecht (NL) | Desiccated Medium | No | FCA | 1.90 | 1.90 | 0% | Stable |
| Coconut dried | Indonesia | Dordrecht (NL) | Desiccated | No | FCA | 1.95 | 1.95 | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Sri Lanka’s Expansion: Large-scale planting initiatives and government-backed incentives to identify and develop underutilized land are set to reinforce domestic and export supplies.
- Export Demand: 30% of Sri Lanka’s crop supports exports, especially value-added products; international demand remains firm, aided by coconut’s popularity for healthy food and cosmetic ingredients.
- Productivity Gains: Use of high-yield hybrids, drip irrigation, and mechanization aims for a 10–15% productivity jump by 2030.
- Global Competition: Philippines, Indonesia, and India remain principal competitors. Still, Sri Lanka’s policy drive could shift market share if yields rise faster than rivals.
📊 Fundamentals & Comparative Summary
| Country | 2024 Prod. (million nuts) | 2024 Exports (USD million) | % Used Domestically | Expansion Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sri Lanka | 3,000 | 836 | 70% | 2.5 billion nuts by 2030 |
| Philippines | 14,700 | >2,000 | <50% | Ongoing |
| Indonesia | 17,000 | 1,000+ | <60% | Moderate growth |
| India | 23,000 | 700–1,000 | >80% | Technology investment |
- Sri Lanka: Focused on diversification and value addition; government expects strong export income growth and domestic price moderation.
- Previous report comparison: No major price shifts versus last quarter, confirming current stability. Policy-driven expansion is more aggressive than seen in earlier updates.
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
- Sri Lanka: Recent forecasts indicate a normal-to-wet southwest monsoon. Governmental disaster risk reduction plans aim to cushion production against sporadic cyclone/flood threats.
- Philippines: Outlook suggests scattered showers but no major typhoons expected near Luzon and Mindanao in the coming 3 days, preserving ideal coconut maturation conditions.
- Indonesia: Seasonally average rainfall continues; no significant El Niño/La Niña risks in short-term models, ensuring stable growing prospects.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect continued price stability for both conventional and organic dried coconut in Europe and Asia unless adverse weather impacts yields in Q3/Q4.
- Monitor government policy actions in Sri Lanka and new crop progress in SE Asia for early signs of tightening or surplus later in 2025.
- Value-added coconut products (milk, fiber, oil) are forecasted to outpace bulk nut price rises; processors should lock in supply contracts at current rates if possible.
- Short-term: No significant speculative positioning detected; steady physical market interest.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | Coconut dried flakes | 4.62 | 4.60 – 4.65 | Stable |
| Dordrecht (NL) | Coconut dried flakes (organic) | 3.04 | 3.00 – 3.08 | Stable |
| Dordrecht (NL) | Coconut dried flakes | 2.65 | 2.63 – 2.68 | Stable |
| Dordrecht (NL) | Desiccated coconut (ID) | 1.90 | 1.88 – 1.92 | Stable |
| Dordrecht (NL) | Desiccated coconut (ID) | 1.95 | 1.93 – 1.98 | Stable |
