Millet Market Analysis: Navigating Stability as New Crop Arrivals Loom

Despite being at the threshold of a new harvest season, the global millet market is showcasing notable stability. Recent price data from major Indian markets—Himatnagar and Rajkot—as well as transactional volumes in Europe and Asia, underline an industry in wait-and-watch mode. With new sorghum (jowar) and pearl millet (bajra) crops expected from Rajasthan within the next 15–20 days, neither buyers nor sellers are anticipating any significant price swings in the immediate term.

In both major hubs and regional trading centers, arrivals remain limited and demand remains moderate, supporting a steady pricing environment. Producers and traders are closely eyeing weather developments, as precipitation and temperature trends in key millet-producing states will likely be pivotal in determining yield outcomes for the coming weeks. At the same time, demand from flour mills—an essential post-harvest market force—remains the factor to watch, as their purchasing activity will shape any post-arrival pricing direction. For now, global market participants can expect another period of calm before the potential volatility that historically accompanies the onset of fresh crop arrivals.

📈 Prices

Market/Origin	Product Type	Location	Currency	Latest Price	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Himatnagar (IN)	Bajra	India	USD/ton	$390	–	0%	Steady
Rajkot (IN)	Bajra	India	USD/ton	$388	–	0%	Steady
Key Indian Hubs	Jowar (med./high)	India	USD/ton	$400 / $420	–	0%	Steady
Kiełczygłow (PL)	Millet seeds, hulled, yellow, 99.95%	Poland	EUR/kg	0.45	0.44	+2.3%	Firm
Odesa (UA)	Millet seeds, hulled, yellow	Ukraine	EUR/kg	0.19	0.19	0%	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Millet seeds, inshell, red	Ukraine	EUR/kg	0.25	0.24	+4.2%	Firm
Odesa (UA)	Millet seeds, inshell, yellow	Ukraine	EUR/kg	0.25	0.24	+4.2%	Firm
Odesa (UA)	Millet kernels, hulled, yellow (99%)	Ukraine	EUR/kg	0.4	0.4	0%	Stable
Odesa (UA)	Millet kernels, hulled, yellow (organic, 99%)	Ukraine	EUR/kg	1.2	1.2	0%	Stable
Beijing (CN)	Millet kernels, hulled, yellow (organic, 99.9%)	China	EUR/kg	0.8	0.81	-1.2%	Soft
Beijing (CN)	Millet kernels, hulled, yellow (99.95%)	China	EUR/kg	0.72	0.74	-2.7%	Slightly Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Steady to moderate demand from flour mills and traders; high interest expected upon new crop arrivals from Rajasthan.
• Limited arrivals in major trading centers, underpinning current price stability.
• Quantity on offer in Ukraine and Poland has seen some upward momentum in price, especially for inshell types, likely due to tighter supply or increased demand.
• Indian crop development is in a critical monitoring stage with minimal old stocks remaining; India’s market is especially sensitive to the timing and health of the Rajasthan harvest.
• Speculative activity largely muted, but could re-emerge if weather hampers yield prospects or arrivals are delayed.

📊 Fundamentals & External Influences

• Weather: Recent rainfall has been mostly beneficial in Rajasthan and Gujarat, but forecasts suggest increased temperatures and below-average rainfall over the next 7–10 days which could stress late-planted crops if the dry trend persists.
• Global Context: Ukraine’s stable prices, despite ongoing logistical challenges, and slight price softening in China point to adequate global supply for the near term.
• Past Report Comparison: Compared to the last market report, prices remain largely unchanged in India and Ukraine; however, Polish and some Ukrainian inshell product offers have risen modestly, reflecting localized demand upticks.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Prospects

• India (Rajasthan, Gujarat): 7-day forecast calls for above-normal temperatures and lower probability of monsoon showers. Close watch needed on soil moisture for maturing millet and jowar crops.
• Ukraine: Warm and dry weather expected to persist, beneficial for harvest completion but potentially limiting any late yield gains.
• China: Mild cooling in North China with some isolated showers, not expected to disrupt ongoing harvests.

Potential Impact: Current conditions support stable supply, but a prolonged dry spell in India could impact late-sown acreage and prompt price moves post-arrival if realized yields disappoint.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	2024E Production (mil tons)	2024E Ending Stocks (mil tons)	Key Comments
India	11.2	1.8	Largest producer; stocks tight, harvest outlook key
Nigeria	7.0	1.5	Steady harvest, domestic use high
China	2.5	0.6	Lower output, but steady exports
Ukraine	0.3	0.04	Stable, strong export presence in EU
EU	1.0	0.12	Self-sufficient, some imports from Ukraine

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Maintain neutral-to-slightly bullish bias in Indian markets until Rajasthan arrivals; monitor for upside if weather deteriorates.
• Watch for increased activity from flour mills after harvest—potential trigger for short-term price rises.
• For export markets (UA/PL), expect price firmness for higher grade and inshell lots; sustained Ukrainian offers signify reliable supply chain for now.
• China: monitor for further softening as current harvest continues.
• Avoid large speculative positions until after new-crop arrivals and mill demand picture clears.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• India (Bajra/Jowar): Stable; Himatnagar & Rajkot to remain in $388–$390/ton range. Little near-term risk unless monsoon fails completely.
• Ukraine (Millet seeds/kernels): Stable to mildly firm. Inshell types may see small further gains.
• Poland (Millet seeds): Firm, minor upside possible on strong regional demand.
• China (Millet): Slight downside bias; pricing to drift slightly softer as more supplies come to market, but no sharp drop expected.