Peanuts Market Analysis: Gujarat Drives Production Boom as Prices Remain Steady

The peanuts market is undergoing a remarkable shift, spearheaded by a substantial increase in production from Gujarat, India’s largest peanut-growing state. The recently published estimate from Gujarat’s agriculture department forecasts groundnut output at an impressive 3.66 million tonnes for the current Kharif season, a year-on-year surge of 30%. This jump in production is underpinned by a significant 25% expansion in acreage, now totaling 2.5 million hectares, and an improved per-hectare yield. Favorable monsoon rains and optimal sowing windows across key regions such as Saurashtra, Kutch, and North Gujarat have set the stage for a potential record harvest.

Parallel developments are noted nationwide, supported by the Central government’s advance estimates for oilseeds that reinforce the outlook for larger crops. While this bumper production bodes well for supply security and processing industries, it introduces the risk of downward price pressure should demand fail to match the robust supply. As of late August 2025, market prices for both Indian and Brazilian origin peanuts remain stable, with only marginal declines reported. Traders and processors are advised to keep a close eye on both domestic procurement activity and evolving international demand trends— especially from China and the EU—to gauge whether the price equilibrium can be maintained. In the coming weeks, harvest progress and export buying patterns will be the key determinants for market direction.

📈 Prices: Key Peanut Market Quotes

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Change (Weekly)	Market Sentiment
Roasted Split, 60/70/80	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.14	-0.01	Stable
Birdfeed	IN	New Delhi	CFR	1.04	-0.01	Stable/Soft
Raw	BR	Brasília	FOB	1.29	-0.01	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Gujarat’s Kharif groundnut production expected to rise 30% (3.66m t), acreage up 25% to 2.5m ha
• Average yield increases to 1,464 kg/ha (from 1,400 kg/ha last year)
• Central government signals improved oilseed crops nationwide
• Persistent stable domestic and export demand, but higher stocks may test price levels if demand does not keep pace
• Chinese/EU buying patterns in focus for export-led movement

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Tight international supply-dependence is easing as India sees larger-than-expected output
• Rising stockpiles ahead of harvest may cap short-term rallies
• Speculative activity low as harvest pressure and lack of upward drivers create a balanced market
• Previous report (Q3 2024): Prices were firmer due to supply uncertainty — this season’s output marks a clear reversal

⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• Saurashtra, Kutch, and North Gujarat: Above-average, timely monsoon rainfall sustaining crop health
• Short-term weather: No major adverse events forecast; ideal conditions for late pod filling and harvest operations
• Watch: Risk of untimely rainfall at harvest could impact post-harvest quality, but current outlook remains positive

🌎 Global Production & Stocks: 2024/25 Snapshots

Country	Production (m tonnes)	Stocks trend	Comments
India	~7.0 (including Kharif & Rabi)	Rising	Major exporter, strong growth in output
China	~17.5	Flat	Largest producer, steady consumer/importer
USA	~2.6	Stable	Key exporter, moderate prospects
Brazil	~0.66	Flat	Stable supply, currency advantages
EU	Negligible	Constant	Import-dependent

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Procurement: Buyers can pace purchases as arrivals build, but monitor any shifts in weather or export interest closely
• Sellers: Consider forward bookings before harvest peaks if storage is limited; large crops may push prices lower post-harvest
• Exporters: Indian origin competitive on global market, but watch for logistical bottlenecks and quality shifts at harvest
• Speculators: Low volatility expected short-term, but any export surprises or adverse weather could trigger sharp moves

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Type	Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Outlook
IN	Roasted Split 60/70/80	New Delhi	1.14	Stable/Soft (1.13-1.14)
IN	Birdfeed	New Delhi	1.04	Soft (1.03-1.04)
BR	Raw	Brasília	1.29	Stable (1.28-1.29)