Soybean Market Outlook 2025/26: Brazil’s Expansion, Global Prices, and Weather Risks

The global soybean market is navigating dynamic changes as Brazil—the world’s largest producer—prepares for an expanded harvest in the 2025-26 season. With a projected output of 176.5 million tons, Brazilian production is set to rise 3% year-over-year, backed by both an increase in cultivated area and yield improvements. This robust growth comes at a time when weather volatility and shifting international demand are shaping price movements, especially amid ongoing tensions in global trade flows. Digital trading platforms are recording firm buyer interest, while processors and exporters closely watch the latest USDA reports and South American crop forecasts.

The competitive FOB prices out of the US, India, Ukraine, and China continue to reflect regional variations in production costs and logistical realities, impacting both spot and forward transactions. As North American harvests get underway and El Niño-related weather patterns remain influential, the market faces a mixed outlook: upside potential on weather risks balanced by record South American plantings and inventories. Read on for a detailed analysis of pricing, production drivers, comparative fundamentals, key new forecasts, and actionable recommendations for participants across the supply chain.

📈 Prices

Origin	Product Type	Delivery (FOB)	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	0.39	0.37	+5.4%	Bullish
India	Sortex clean	New Delhi	0.76	0.74	+2.7%	Firm
Ukraine	–	Odesa	0.34	0.34	0%	Neutral
China	Yellow, organic (99.8%)	Beijing	0.77	0.79	-2.5%	Weak
China	Yellow (99.5%)	Beijing	0.68	0.70	-2.9%	Bearing

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Brazil: 2025-26 production estimated at 176.5 million tons (+3%). Cultivation to expand by 2% to 48.7 million ha.
• Yield Gains: Brazilian average yield seen rising to 18.34 quintals/ha (vs. 17.84 last year).
• US Competitiveness: US exports face headwinds with strong South American production, but rising US prices (+5.4% WoW) signal resilient demand.
• India & Ukraine: Stable prices and moderate volumes. The Indian premium reflects local constraints and domestic demand.
• China: Lowered organic soybean values as domestic supply remains adequate.
• Corn Context: Brazil corn production is expected to increase by 2% to 110.4 million tons following soybean harvest, supporting feed supply stability.

📊 Fundamentals

Country	2025/26 Soybean Output (mt)	Change YoY (%)	Key Factors
Brazil	176.5	+3%	Area, yields up
US	Expected near 117	Slight drop	Lower acreage, weather risk
Argentina	50	+7%	Better weather, recovery year
China	19	Stable	Policy support, domestic use
India	12.5	+2%	Domestic demand, monsoon

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Current forecasts suggest mostly favorable rainfall in Mato Grosso and Paraná, promoting early planting but localized dry pockets may affect Rio Grande do Sul. Monitor El Niño effects into Q4.
• US Midwest: Recent spotty rainfall alleviates drought stress, but heat waves remain a risk for late pod fill ahead of harvest.
• Argentina: After a recovery from La Niña’s damage, soil moisture is adequate, but continued monitoring is needed.

🌐 Global Inventory Position

Exporter	2025/26 Stocks (mt)	Trend
Brazil	36	Increasing
US	7	Decreasing
Argentina	4	Stable
China	24	Stable

📆 Forecast & Trading Outlook

• South American supply growth is the main bearish driver—watch for weather disruptions for short-term rallies.
• US export flows remain supported by tight global stocks but may face further pressure later in the season.
• Prepare for basis volatility in EU and Asia as crushers react to new-crop offers and shipping pace from Brazil.
• Bullish risk: adverse weather in Brazil or US yield disappointment.
• Bearish risk: faster-than-expected Brazilian harvest pace in Q1/2026, major trade-policy changes.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg, FOB)

Location	Today	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days
US (Washington D.C.)	0.39	0.39	0.40	0.40
India (New Delhi)	0.76	0.76	0.77	0.77
Ukraine (Odesa)	0.34	0.34	0.34	0.34
China (Beijing, organic)	0.77	0.77	0.76	0.76