The global cumin market finds itself at a pivotal junction as prices regain momentum following a period of stabilization. The latest surge is propelled chiefly by revived Chinese buying activity, providing the much-needed bullish lift to a market that had been showing signs of fatigue. In India’s key physical markets—particularly Unjha—prices have climbed noticeably, signaling both domestic and international interest. Cumin futures also reflect this sentiment, underlining widespread optimism among market participants. Forecasts indicate that India, the world’s largest cumin producer and exporter, is poised for a significant production increase—up to 20% more than last year—further shaping the market outlook.
Exporters are cautiously optimistic, expecting April–June 2025 exports to nudge above 78,000 tons and bring in more than $250 million, reflecting strong underlying demand. With domestic purchasing also on the rise, the interplay between robust export commitments and improving production prospects is creating a firm price floor for the near term. Meanwhile, currency movements, weather risks, and shifting consumer preferences remain critical factors. Global weather events and geopolitics could still impact export flows and price stability, making it essential for market participants to stay vigilant.
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📈 Latest Cumin Market Prices
| Product | Type/Purity | Origin | Location | Organic | Delivery Terms | Closing Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (EUR) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumin seeds | Whole, Grade A | IN | New Delhi | Yes | FOB | 5.14 | -0.02 | Bullish |
| Cumin seeds | Grade A, 99% purity | IN | New Delhi | No | FOB | 2.32 | -0.02 | Bullish |
| Cumin seeds | Grade A, 98% purity | IN | New Delhi | No | FOB | 2.17 | -0.02 | Bullish |
| Cumin seeds | 99.9% purity | EG | Cairo | No | FOB | 4.80 | -0.02 | Stable |
| Cumin powder | Grade A | IN | New Delhi | Yes | FOB | 4.35 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds | Black, Grade A | EG | Cairo | No | FOB | 2.15 | -0.03 | Soft |
| Cumin seed | SY | Dordrecht (NL) | No | FCA | 3.90 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- China has reignited buying: After a lull, renewed Chinese import demand is providing crucial price support.
- India export forecast: April–June 2025: Exports projected at ~78,086 tons, valued at $252 million.
- India production outlook: 2025–26 output is expected to increase by 18–20%, exceeding 628,600 tons due to favorable acreage expansion.
- Domestic buying: Steady secondary demand from Indian buyers further tightens market conditions.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Price momentum: Prices in Unjha up $2.40–$2.50 per quintal, signaling bullish sentiment.
- Export commitments growing: India is cementing its position as a key supplier, with export demand from China, the Middle East, and Europe strengthening.
- Speculative activity: Futures contracts mirror physical rises, suggesting traders expect further upward movement.
- Stock situation: Lower carry-in stocks from last season combined with strong forward export bookings create tightness for the rest of 2025.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Regional Impact
- India (Gujarat & Rajasthan): Monsoon conditions remain favorable with above-average rainfall, aiding yield and quality prospects.
- Turkey/Egypt/Syria: Weather mostly normal, with some regions in Egypt experiencing minor temperature anomalies but no major warning signs. Crop quality expected stable.
Should current weather patterns continue, India is likely to see a bumper harvest next season, but too much late-season rain could pose disease risks.
🌏 Global Producers & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Output (est., tons) | Stock Situation | Export Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 628,600+ | Tight (low carry) | Strong, increasing |
| Egypt | ~48,000 | Ample | Stable |
| Syria | ~34,000 | Normal | Stable |
| Turkey | ~10,000 | Limited | Sporadic |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish momentum likely to continue as Chinese and domestic Indian demand strengthens.
- Exporters: Secure forward contracts to capitalize on expected tightness during the next quarter.
- Buyers: Anticipate further price strength; consider locking in purchases before the main harvest season concludes.
- Speculators: Monitor weather and export trends for directional cues—volatility could increase if production or logistics see disruptions.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unjha (IN) | Cumin seeds, Grade A | 2.32 | 2.32 – 2.36 | Bullish |
| New Delhi (IN) | Cumin seeds, Organic | 5.14 | 5.14 – 5.18 | Bullish |
| Cairo (EG) | Cumin seeds, 99.9% | 4.80 | 4.78 – 4.83 | Stable |
