Soya Market Faces Tightening Supplies Despite Global Stability: Acreage Down, Prices Steady

The global soybean market is at a crossroads as India, a crucial consumer and producer, reports a notable 4.5% decrease in sowing activity compared to the previous year. This contraction—down to 12.12 million hectares from last year’s 12.68 million—signals possible tightening of domestic supply. Core production states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Karnataka all registered decreased acreage, stirring concerns around future output and edible oil prices. Analysts caution that while carryover stocks may cushion immediate market volatility, sustained lower planting could pressure both prices and import demand for edible oils.

India’s soybean supply dynamics play a pivotal role for global edible oil markets. The likely increase in edible oil imports puts further strain on the country’s trade balance and amplifies exposure to global price swings. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Brazil, the world’s primary soybean exporters, anticipate strong harvests, offering some reassurance for international buyers. In this context, domestic policy support for Indian oilseed farmers is under debate to maintain production resilience and minimize import reliance. Weather developments, pricing actions, and government measures will be decisive for market participants in the upcoming weeks.

📈 Prices

Origin	Location	Type	Organic	Latest Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Date	Weekly Change	Sentiment
US	Washington D.C.	No. 2	No	0.39	0.37	2025-09-04	+5.4%	Positive
IN	New Delhi	Sortex Clean	No	0.76	0.74	2025-09-04	+2.7%	Positive
UA	Odesa		No	0.34	0.34	2025-09-04	0%	Neutral
CN	Beijing	Yellow (Organic)	Yes	0.77	0.79	2025-09-03	-2.5%	Negative
CN	Beijing	Yellow	No	0.68	0.70	2025-09-03	-2.9%	Negative

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Sown area down 4.5%, with leading states all observing declines.
• Short-term impact: Carryover stocks expected to dampen immediate supply shocks.
• Imports: Higher soybean and edible oil imports anticipated due to production dip.
• Policy: SEA urges government action to sustain farmer incentives and stabilize acreage.
• Global context: US and Brazil anticipate robust harvests, promising strong export flows.

📊 Fundamentals

	India	US	Brazil	China
Sown Area (mil ha)	12.12	~34	~45	n/a
Latest Production Estimate (mil t)	10.5*	~115	~155	~17
Stocks/Carryover (mil t)	Moderate*	High	High	Low
Import Dependency	Rising	Exporter	Exporter	High

*Estimated based on acreage reduction and historical yields.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• India: Monsoon progress is patchy; below-normal rainfall in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra could further pressure yields, while other states see mixed precipitation.
• US & Brazil: Mostly favorable growing conditions; some localized dryness but not threatening national output at present.
• Short-term prices: Indian supply risk could be amplified if seasonal rainfall continues below trend.

🗓️ Market Drivers & Updates

• USDA reports strong US export bookings amid stable crop condition scores.
• Brazil continues to dominate global production growth, offsetting India’s decline.
• Indian government evaluating support for oilseed growers to prevent further acreage erosion.
• Speculative positioning in futures markets is moderate, with a slight bullish tilt due to supply concerns in India.

🔮 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Indian crushers and refiners should consider securing supply quickly due to anticipated import demand and possible price rises post-harvest.
• International buyers can expect stability in global prices due to US/Brazil surplus, but Indian spot markets may tighten.
• Monitor monsoon updates and government announcements for volatility triggers.
• Short-term hedges advised for users exposed to Indian physical markets.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current (€/kg)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Bias
US (Washington D.C.)	0.39	0.39–0.40	0.40	0.40	Stable/Bullish
India (New Delhi)	0.76	0.76–0.78	0.78	0.79	Bullish
Ukraine (Odesa)	0.34	0.34	0.34	0.34	Neutral