The global nutmeg market continues to grapple with lackluster price momentum as both demand and supply fundamentals fail to shift meaningfully. With current trading at $8.28 per kg—stagnant from the previous day—and muted activity among buyers, traders and exporters see little sign of a breakout on the horizon. Earlier in the week, a short-lived price dip of $0.12 per kg was observed, but this correction quickly reversed, reinforcing the market’s overall sideways trend. Market participants report persistent limited buying interest, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and caution among downstream industries.
On the supply side, the absence of fresh disruptions or crop shortages is suppressing any speculative activity, while consumer demand remains stable but uninspired. Analysts widely agree that only a substantial shift—such as unexpected weather events impacting key origins, or an uptick in global spice consumption—could jolt prices higher. Until then, stability appears to be the narrative, with no strong bullish or bearish catalysts emerging.
For buyers and sellers alike, this subdued environment suggests a near-term focus on managing inventory and cash flow, rather than opportunistic trading.
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📈 Nutmeg Prices at a Glance
| Product | Type | Origin | Organic | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nutmeg whole | without shell | India | Yes | 12.50 | 12.50 | 0.00 | New Delhi (FOB) |
| Nutmeg whole | without shell | India | No | 6.55 | 6.55 | 0.00 | New Delhi (FOB) |
| Nutmeg powder | — | India | Yes | 12.40 | 12.40 | 0.00 | New Delhi (FOB) |
| Key Exchange | Closing Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Physical (Export) | 8.28 | 0.00 | Neutral/Weak |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Supply: Steady, with no reported harvest issues in major origins (India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka).
- Demand: Limited downstream buying, with food processors and spice blenders holding off on speculative purchases.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders remain on the sidelines, eyeing inventory but avoiding aggressive moves.
- Market Mood: Flat, as neither fresh demand nor supply shocks are anticipated in the coming weeks.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Global Stocks: End-2023/24 inventories estimated stable. No significant drawdown reported since last quarter.
- Production Comparison: India and Indonesia both report average yields so far this year; no major crop losses.
- Comparison to Previous Report: Price stability mirrors the last reporting cycle; trading volume and price ranges remain unchanged, underscoring ongoing market stagnation.
☀️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions
- India (Kerala, Karnataka): Current forecasts indicate normal monsoon activity with no excessive rainfall or drought expected for the next ten days.
- Indonesia (Banda Islands, Sulawesi): Typical seasonal patterns expected, supportive of regular harvest activity and quality maintenance.
- Overall: No imminent weather-related risks to crop yields. Near-term supply chain disruptions appear unlikely.
🌐 Global Trade Snapshot
| Country | 2023 Export Volume (MT) | 2023 Import Volume (MT) | Inventory Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 29,400 | 6,200 | Steady |
| Indonesia | 12,000 | 3,700 | Stable |
| Sri Lanka | 3,400 | 2,000 | Stable |
| Europe (aggregate) | — | 8,800 | Rising stocks |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📌 For exporters: Maintain regular contract flows rather than speculative spot trading until fundamentals improve.
- 📌 For importers/processors: Consider gradual inventory buildup if restocking, but avoid large speculative purchases given stagnant prices.
- 📌 For traders: Market poised for rangebound trade; limited upside until clear demand uptick or weather-related supply disruption emerges.
- 📌 Weather risk: Monitor South/Southeast Asian weather in late Q3/early Q4 for potential new crop signals.
- 📌 Short-term strategy: Expect steady prices in the near future absent further macro or supply chain shocks.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast Range (USD/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Export (India) | 8.28 | 8.20 – 8.30 | Flat |
| FOB New Delhi (whole, organic) | 13.49* | 13.40 – 13.60 | Stable |
| FOB New Delhi (whole, conventional) | 7.07* | 7.00 – 7.10 | Stable |
*Prices converted at EUR/USD = 1.079 as of report date.
