Wheat Market Holds Steady Amid Rising Arrivals and Firm Global Support

The wheat market has demonstrated remarkable resilience over the past week. Despite expanding government procurement plans and an uptick in arrivals across key mandis, prices remained notably stable. This equilibrium surfaced as both domestic and global markets sustained robust demand-supply dynamics, with no major shocks observed on either front. Premium-quality wheat fetched between $41.57 and $46.34 per quintal, reflecting confidence among both farmers and traders. Medium- and lower-grade wheat continued to trade within anticipated bands, underscoring the absence of panic selling or speculative volatility.

Strategic government intervention, through timely procurement, further buttressed domestic prices, while internationally, benchmark wheat rates also maintained steadiness—offering an additional layer of support. Traders and analysts alike expect this balanced outlook to persist short-term, assuming sudden surges in arrivals or abrupt drops in consumption do not emerge. Weather conditions, though always a wildcard, presently offer no significant threat, suggesting stable yields in the weeks ahead. All told, the wheat market appears set for a period of steady, supported pricing, backed by both policy measures and healthy, synchronized global trends.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Origin	Specification	Location/Country	Delivery Terms	Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Protein min. 11.50%	Washington D.C., US	FOB	0.23	0.00	Stable
Euronext	Protein min. 11.00%	Paris, FR	FOB	0.29	0.00	Stable
Odesa	Protein min. 11.00%	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.20	0.00	Stable
Odesa	Protein min. 10.50%	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.20	0.00	Stable
Odesa	Protein min. 12.50%	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.21	0.00	Stable
Kyiv	Protein min. 11.50%	Kyiv, UA	FCA	0.24	0.00	Stable
Kyiv	Protein min. 9.50%	Kyiv, UA	FCA	0.22	0.00	Stable
Odesa	Protein min. 11.50%	Odesa, UA	FCA	0.25	0.00	Stable
Odesa	Protein min. 9.50%	Odesa, UA	FCA	0.24	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Arrivals: In India, weekly arrivals reached 12,000–14,000 bags across key mandis.
• Domestic Demand: Steady procurement from flour mills and government agencies maintained solid demand.
• International Market: Global prices showed only minor fluctuations and remained near recent averages, highlighting continued tightness in exportable surpluses.

📊 Fundamentals

• Government Support: Aggressive procurement programs have prevented price softness despite higher arrivals.
• Stocks: No significant change reported in government and private inventories, maintaining a balanced outlook.
• Speculative Activity: Low volatility suggests speculative interest remains subdued this week.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• India (Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh): Weather conditions have been neutral-to-favorable, supporting ongoing harvest and quality. No forecasted extremes threaten short-term yield prospects.
• Ukraine, US, France: Crop conditions remain satisfactory. Weather in the Black Sea region is reported as seasonal, with only isolated showers forecast. The US Great Plains and EU growing belts forecast moderate temperatures and adequate moisture—factors pointing to stable production outlooks.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (MT)	Ending Stocks (MT)
US	49.3	16.2
EU	129.5	20.7
India	112.5	7.2
Russia	88.0	14.0
Ukraine	23.0	2.7
China	137.2	136.1
Australia	29.8	3.6

Source: Latest USDA & trade estimates, September 2025. MT = Million Tonnes

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain sales pace as prices are well-supported by both international and domestic dynamics.
• Watch for any unexpected surge in arrivals or correction in procurement policies; these remain the largest price risks.
• Monitor key weather updates from the Black Sea, US, and Northern India for any early warning on yield threats.
• Importers can use current stability to cover near-term needs; no strong uptrend or downtrend is forecast for the immediate period.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Price Forecast (EUR/kg)
CBOT (US)	0.23–0.24
Euronext (FR)	0.29–0.30
Odesa (UA)	0.20–0.21