Cumin Market Sinks Further as Demand Stalls and Fresh Arrivals Loom

The global cumin (jeera) market remains under downward pressure as weak demand continues to prevent a recovery in prices. Fresh arrivals from major Indian producing states such as Gujarat and Rajasthan are flooding the markets, with traders reporting subdued buying from both domestic and export segments. Benchmark prices have stabilized at $246.39 per quintal, showing little change after a minor correction of $1.20 earlier in the week. Market sentiment is yet to recover amid persistent concerns about tepid demand and expectations of further supply increases.

Unless there’s a significant uptick in export orders or a sudden resurgence in local buying, analysts predict that cumin prices will likely remain soft over the near term. This sentiment is in line with the last market update, reflecting sustained weakness and cautious trading strategies among major market stakeholders.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity/Grade	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
India	Whole, Grade – A, Organic	–	New Delhi	FOB	€5.14/kg	€5.14/kg	0%	Weak
India	Grade – A, 99% purity	99%	New Delhi	FOB	€2.32/kg	€2.32/kg	0%	Weak
India	Grade – A, 98% purity	98%	New Delhi	FOB	€2.17/kg	€2.17/kg	0%	Weak
Egypt	Seeds, 99.9% purity	99.9%	Kairo	FOB	€4.77/kg	€4.80/kg	-0.6%	Bearish
Egypt	Black, Grade – A	–	Kairo	FOB	€2.16/kg	€2.15/kg	+0.5%	Stable
Syria	Cumin Seed	–	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	€3.90/kg	€3.90/kg	0%	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Arrivals in India’s leading producing states (Gujarat, Rajasthan) remain high, keeping market stocks ample.
• Domestic buying is reported as tepid, with little interest from both processors and traders.
• Export orders have yet to pick up meaningfully, partly due to competition from Syria and Egypt, as well as stable-to-weaker international prices.
• Expectations of fresh crop arrivals in coming weeks continue to suppress upward price movement.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA/Global Reports: No major recent changes in global cumin acreage or yield outlooks.
• Acreage & Yields: Indian acreage was stable YoY; yields benefitted moderately from favorable weather last season.
• Inventories: Stock levels in major Indian markets are comfortable; no reported supply tightness in Egypt or Syria.
• Speculative Positioning: Largely neutral, with both local and export traders avoiding large positions amid price hesitancy.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India (Gujarat & Rajasthan): Weather conditions remain stable for post-harvest handling. No immediate threats to supply or transport.
• Egypt: Mild condition prevails; weather not seen as an issue for ongoing supply.
• Syria: No reported weather anomalies affecting stored goods or pending shipments.
• Short-term forecast indicates continued dry, stable weather that supports steady arrivals but limits quality risks.

🌍 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production Estimates (MT)	2024/25 Stocks (MT)	Notes
India	~650,000	High	Largest exporter; comfortable ending stocks.
Syria	~30,000	Stable	Minor supply risk from weather/politics.
Egypt	~27,000	Stable	Key for premium and organic grades.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Market likely to remain range-bound due to steady arrivals and weak demand.
• Upside limited unless there’s a sudden spike in export or domestic buying.
• Buyers may wait for further price softness or evidence of large export orders before covering forward needs.
• Exporters recommended to monitor competitor export trends, particularly from Syria/Egypt, for pricing signals.
• Short-term: Hedging not advised until volumes or sentiment show improvement.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• India (New Delhi, FOB): Stable to slightly weak, €2.15–2.32/kg expected through next three days.
• Egypt (Kairo, FOB): Marginal softness possible, €4.75–4.80/kg range.
• Syria (NL, FCA): Little movement anticipated, €3.88–3.92/kg.